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What We Know About Climate Change (Boston Review Books) Hardcover – August 31, 2007
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The vast majority of scientists agree that human activity has significantly increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere--most dramatically since the 1970s. In February 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that global warming is "unequivocal" and that human-produced carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are chiefly to blame, to a certainty of more than 90 percent. Yet global warming skeptics and ill-informed elected officials continue to dismiss this broad scientific consensus. In What We Know About Climate Change, MIT atmospheric scientist Kerry Emanuel outlines the basic science of global warming and how the current consensus has emerged. Although it is impossible to predict exactly when the most dramatic effects of global warming will be felt, he argues, we can be confident that we face real dangers. Emanuel, whose work was widely cited in media coverage of Hurricane Katrina, warns that global warming will contribute to an increase in the intensity and power of hurricanes and flooding and more rapidly advancing deserts. But just as our actions have created the looming crisis, so too might they avert it. Emanuel calls for urgent action to reduce greenhouse gases and criticizes the media for playing down the dangers of global warming (and, in search of "balance," quoting extremists who deny its existence). An afterword by environmental policy experts Judith Layzer and William Moomaw discusses how the United States could lead the way in the policy changes required to deal with global warming. Kerry Emanuel is Professor of Atmospheric Science in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Science at MIT. He is the author of Divine Wind: The History and Science of Hurricanes and Atmospheric Convection. In May 2006 he was named one of Time magazine's "Time 100: The People Who Shape Our World."
- Print length96 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherThe MIT Press
- Publication dateAugust 31, 2007
- Dimensions4.5 x 0.25 x 7 inches
- ISBN-100262050897
- ISBN-13978-0262050890
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Editorial Reviews
Review
"Emanuel"s words are measured and authoritative. His book should help reduce the huge gap between what is understood by the scientific community and what is known by the people who need to know, the public and policymakers."James Hansen , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
"Kerry Emanuel's book What We Know About Climate Change is one of the best [books on climate change] and is certainly the shortest. In less time than it takes to eat dinner, the respected atmospheric scientist and Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor filters out the noise and presents clearly the essence of the issues that surround global warming." The Plain Dealer
About the Author
Judith A. Layzer is Associate Professor of Environmental Policy in the Department of Urban Studies and Planning at MIT. She is the author of Natural Experiments: Ecosystem-Based Management and the Environment (MIT Press) and The Environmental Case: Translating Values into Policy.
Product details
- Publisher : The MIT Press; 1st edition (August 31, 2007)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 96 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0262050897
- ISBN-13 : 978-0262050890
- Item Weight : 5.6 ounces
- Dimensions : 4.5 x 0.25 x 7 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #4,073,090 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #4,100 in Environmental Engineering (Books)
- #11,317 in Environmental Science (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
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Chp. 1. The myth of natural stability: The earth's climate has been extremely variable - "snowball earth" and "giant trees near the North Pole." The greenhouse effect explains a lot about this.
Chp. 2. Greenhouse physics: Without the greenhouse effect, the earth would be about 0 degrees, not 60. Without air currents, it would be about 85 degrees.
Chp. 3. Why the climate problem is difficult: Clouds. Also, natural variation is so large that it takes about 30 years to detect the human contribution. "The lack of appreciable global warming over the first decade of the current millennium is, ... entirely consistent with ... warming" [this is new].
Chp. 4. Determining humanity's influence: There are two ways, the actual temperature record and computer models. A good explanation of the problems of models, and why they're likely good enough. (Too bad the graph still only goes up to 2000.)
Chp. 5. The consequences: Yes, there are benefits. The negatives: (1) Three to 7 degrees warming and more over land, (2) sea level rise, (3) more frequent strong hurricanes, (4) more flooding and drought, (5) ocean already 30% more acidic [new and important].
Chp. 6. Communicating science: Some IPCC findings and a critique of how, "In their quest to publish the drama of competing dogmas, the media largely ignore mainstream scientists."
Chp. 7. Our options: (1) Mitigation - conservation, alternative energy, capturing carbon, (2) adaptation, (3) geoengineering - a last resort. This chapter is new and adds little.
Chp. 8. The politics: Largely a plea for Republicans to be reasonable; Emmanual has been a Republican most of his life. Also, "Climate research has been a victim of a disturbing phenomenon: the use of advanced marketing techniques to discredit scientific findings." This chapter is much stronger than in the first edition.
The interest of the book is in its scientific explanations and its perspective on how science works and how politics gets in the way of our making use of it.
I have only one small complaint. Chapter 3 tells us that doubling atmospheric CO2 (all else held constant) would raise the average surface temperature by about 1.9°F (up from 1.4°F in the first edition). But no estimate is given for the full effect when all else is not held constant. That crucial "climate sensitivity" is usually put at 5.4°F (3°C) and Emanuel explains clearly such a value is mainly due to positive feedbacks from water vapor and clouds.
He implies that water vapor is well understood, so what is the impact of doubling CO2 if only the water vapor feedback is taken into account? That would tell us how much is riding on the models of clouds that Emanuel tells us are so uncertain. I'm looking forward to the third edition.
PS. James Hansen is better on paleoclimate science.
Now, to mention the few minor issues I ran into while reading the book:
The graph on p. 48 is unreadable to anyone who doesn't already know what the graph is telling us. Probably the only way to make this work is to bite the bullet and include a colored image rather than trying to use grayscale.
The explanation given on p. 58 for why warming trends will likely make it rain more in already wet areas while increasing the intensity and duration of droughts in dry areas wasn't clear to me even after several readings. The argument seems to be [my questions in brackets]:
- condensation (i.e. rain, dew) heats the atmosphere
- which must be compensated by radiative heat loss [from where to where? why?]
- the amount of radiative heat loss increases slowly with temperature [again, it's not clear why this would be]
- so the total heating by condensation must increase slowly as well
OK, but why doesn't this argument apply equally to arid and humid regions?
Finally, (p. 89) Emmanuel describes solar and wind power sources as having "limited potential and high cost" and dismisses them as "unproductive theater". While there certainly is some truth to this currently, it is nevertheless a fact that the modest array of solar panels on the roof of my house supply most of the electricity we use in the household. My last electricity bill is currently -$46.23 because for around 6 months out of the year we generate more electricity than we use and during the summer months (Texas) when the AC is frequently on, we're still feeding the grid during the day during peak usage hours. During those months the electric bill sometimes hits a whopping $20. We accomplish this by having a reasonably well insulated house and energy efficient appliances. I was using CFL bulbs before most people had heard of them. In this particular case, Emmanuel is making a mistake by dismissing the combined impact of improving energy efficiency and increasing innovation in wind and solar power generation. Does solar energy alone have the potential to generate an awful lot of the energy that humans use? Take a look at this eye opening article:[...]
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As a layperson I found the scientific explanations straightforward and convincing. A clear picture is painted of the overall physics together with the delicate (and rather fortuitous) atmospheric balance we ended up with in our time (at least until very recently). The complexities and difficulties of the science are explained, which are ultimately it seems due to the "chaotic" nature of the climate system.
The political analysis is also interesting, for example the suggestion that fossil fuel dominance owes as much to government interference (subsidy) as it does to laissez-faire capitalism. You're left with the optimistic impression that it's only a matter of time before US climate policy becomes bipartisan like much of Europe.
Overall an authoritative, concise and measured overview of climate change.

