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James Rickards

Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos Hardcover – July 23, 2019

by James Rickards (Author)

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A Wall Street Journal bestseller

Financial expert, investment advisor and New York Times bestselling author James Rickards shows why and how global financial markets are being artificially inflated--and what smart investors can do to protect their assets

What goes up, must come down. As any student of financial history knows, the dizzying heights of the stock market can't continue indefinitely--especially since asset prices have been artificially inflated by investor optimism around the Trump administration, ruinously low interest rates, and the infiltration of behavioral economics into our financial lives. The elites are prepared, but what's the average investor to do?

James Rickards, the author of the prescient books Currency Wars, The Death of Money, and The Road to Ruin, lays out the true risks to our financial system, and offers invaluable advice on how best to weather the storm. You'll learn, for instance:

  *  How behavioral economists prop up the market: Funds that administer 401(k)s use all kinds of tricks to make you invest more, inflating asset prices to unsustainable levels.
  *  Why digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are best avoided.
  *  Why passive investing has been overhyped: The average investor has been scolded into passively managed index funds. But active investors will soon have a big advantage.
  *  What the financial landscape will look like after the next crisis: it will not be an apocalypse, but it will be radically different. Those who forsee this landscape can prepare now to preserve wealth.

Provocative, stirring, and full of counterintuitive advice, Aftermath is the book every smart investor will want to get their hands on--as soon as possible.

Print length

336 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Portfolio
Publication date

July 23, 2019
Dimensions

6.3 x 1.2 x 9.3 inches
ISBN-10

0735216959
ISBN-13

978-0735216952
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Editorial Reviews

Review

"The discussion of why the US middle classes are under pressure, the case for universal basic income and similar ideas is one of the best I have read: humane, lucid and relevant. Rickards has gone and done it again."—Wealth Briefing Asia

About the Author

James Rickards is the Editor of Strategic Intelligence a financial newsletter. He is The New York Times bestselling author of The New Great Depression (2020), Aftermath (2019), The Road to Ruin (2016), The New Case for Gold (2016), The Death of Money (2014), and Currency Wars (2011) from Penguin Random House. He is an investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, and has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. In 1998, he was the principal negotiator of the rescue of LTCM sponsored by the Federal Reserve. His clients include institutional investors and government directorates. He is an op-ed contributor to the Financial Times, Evening Standard, The Telegraph, New York Times, and Washington Post, and has been interviewed by BBC, CNN, NPR, CSPAN, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, and The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Rickards is a guest lecturer in globalization and finance at The Johns Hopkins University, Georgetown University, Trinity College Dublin, The Kellogg School at Northwestern, the U.S. Army War College and the School of Advanced International Studies. He has presented papers on risk at Singularity University, the Applied Physics Laboratory, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory. He is an advisor on capital markets to the U.S. intelligence community, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and is on the Advisory Board of the FDD Center on Economic and Financial Power in Washington DC. Mr. Rickards holds an LL.M. (Taxation) from the NYU School of Law; a J.D. from the University of Pennsylvania Law School; an M.A. in international economics from SAIS, and a B.A. (with honors) from Johns Hopkins. He lives in New Hampshire.

Follow him on Twitter @JamesGRickards

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

Chapter One

Scattergoods

From November 1918 down to the present day, no frontal challenge to state power has ever succeeded in any Western state.

—Adam Tooze, The Deluge (2014)

History is the first casualty of media’s microsecond attention span. An army of pseudo-savants saturate the airways to explain that tariffs are bad, trade wars hurt growth, and mercantilism (the art of accumulating reserves) is a throwback to the seventeenth century. These sentiments come from mainstream liberals and conservatives and tagalong journalists trained in the orthodoxy of so-called free trade and the false if comforting belief that trade deficits are the flip side of capital surpluses. So what’s the problem?

The problem is that perpetual trade deficits have put the United States on a path to a crisis of confidence in the dollar. Capital surplus is a euphemism for excessive debt issuance by corporations and the Treasury. Zero tariffs are an invitation to outsource manufacturing and destroy high-paying U.S. jobs. Mercantilism makes China the fastest-growing major economy, while free trade leaves the United States to languish with depression-level growth. The cherished verities of liberal economics are mostly junk science; a thinly veiled stalking horse for the real goal of global governance and taxation in the name of globalization.

A visit to the history section of a library reveals liberal hero Alexander Hamilton was a staunch protectionist who nurtured U.S. industry with bounties, tariffs, and other obstacles to free trade. Progressive icon Teddy Roosevelt supported the gold standard and a strong dollar. Our first globalist president, Woodrow Wilson, wanted globalism not based on integrated supply chains, but on U.S. hegemony over authoritarian Germany and Russia and imperialist France, Japan, and the U.K. Wilson’s way of achieving this was not with arms but with gold, dollars, and Wall Street credit. Conservative champion Ronald Reagan imposed such high tariffs on Japanese cars that they moved their factories to Tennessee and South Carolina, where the factories remain today. In fact, America’s greatest periods of prosperity were associated with tariffs and mercantilism until the 1990s, when debt and war became all-purpose substitutes for investment in U.S. factories. Now the debt boom is dying, a day of reckoning approaches, and false economic nostrums won’t save us.

This conundrum between what works in practice (protection and mercantilism) and modern miseducation (free trade and globalism) must be solved to secure the future strength and stability of the United States. There is ample room for smoothing the rough edges off mercantilism, but only if clear-eyed and historically trained negotiators are assigned to the task. Soft-power globalists are happy to see the United States in relative decline as long as “the world” is better off. The problem is that most of the world is violent, authoritarian, unethical, and inimical to U.S. values. Enriching China at U.S. expense is not just a weak globalist trade-off; it finances concentration camps and industrial slavery. Globalist champions such as Jeffrey Sachs and Mike Bloomberg are in deep denial on this, yet it’s true.

Resolving this conundrum requires talents that range far beyond economics. The quandary can be addressed only by combining experts in geopolitics, history, sociology, law, and complex dynamics. This kind of high-level expert integration with a view to national security is an unsung strength of the Central Intelligence Agency. In this fashion, we turn to the CIA for an inside look at how the United States is using centuries-old tools to meet the twenty-first-century threat from globalization.

A House in Langley Woods

CIA headquarters is a secure compound, with admittance tightly restricted. Yet the location is not secret. The main entrance is on Virginia Route 123, also called Dolley Madison Boulevard, about a mile off the George Washington Parkway, not far from the Potomac River’s south bank.

As if to confound the casual inquirer, most guideposts around headquarters seem to have three names. Dolley Madison Boulevard is shown on some maps as Chain Bridge Road. Reporters frequently refer to CIA headquarters as “Langley,” yet there’s no such town in that part of Virginia; headquarters is located in the town of McLean. The initials “CIA” do not appear in the official headquarters name, the George Bush Center for Intelligence. These double and triple namings seem in keeping with the CIA’s main mission of deception.

Any driver can turn off Dolley Madison Boulevard onto the CIA headquarters access road, yet you won’t make it far without an official badge in hand or a visitor’s badge waiting for you at the security building near the main gate. If a visitor, you’ll be heavily screened before you even get to the gatehouse to pick up your badge.

Once inside, the CIA campus has an open, airy feel not unlike a lot of large corporate campuses located in suburban bands around major cities. The architecture is decidedly midtwentieth century; not at all like the twenty-first-century dome and starship designs adopted by Amazon in Seattle and Apple in Silicon Valley. The two main buildings, Original Headquarters Building, OHB, and New Headquarters Building, NHB, are connected at ground level by glass corridors that frame a small park contained between them.

Beginning in 2003, I was on the front lines of global financial warfare working at CIA headquarters and in the field. My projects involved insider trading in advance of terror attacks, predictive analytics using market data, and national security implications of foreign investment in the United States, among others. One of the pleasures at headquarters was to wander through the CIA Museum on the main floor of OHB. This could be relaxing during snowstorms when scores of staff were no-shows. As a long-time New Englander, I never considered snow a reason to miss work, yet a lot of Virginia colleagues were paralyzed. Senior management sympathized with the locals and routinely granted snow days just like in elementary school. These days meant canceled meetings, which gave me downtime to explore the hidden treasures in headquarters that most staffers rushed by on their way from one vault to another. Former CIA director Mike Hayden called the CIA Museum, “the best museum you’ll probably never see,” a reference to the fact that it’s not open to the public.

The museum is a collation of contributions from private collections, captured items from foreign intelligence services, and the CIA’s own resources. One highlight is an ENIGMA machine invented by a German engineer and used by the Nazi regime in the Second World War to send encrypted message traffic to the German military. Polish, French, and U.K. cryptographers eventually cracked the ENIGMA codes, a feat memorably portrayed in the 2014 Oscar-winning film The Imitation Game. Few of the original machines survive; one of the scarce ENIGMA machines in private hands was sold at auction by Christie’s for over five hundred thousand dollars. I have been fortunate to see two of the originals, one at CIA headquarters and one at the Imperial War Museum in London.

My favorite display in the CIA Museum is a lipstick gun, also called the Kiss of Death. It’s a small-caliber, single-shot pistol disguised as a tube of lipstick. A woman spy in a tight spot could casually reach into her purse, remove the tube of lipstick, and kill her target at close range.

Near one end of the museum is an exhibit that doubles as a lesson in tradecraft. It’s a large black-and-white daytime photograph of Washington, D.C., taken from a high-altitude spy camera. The photograph is about 20' long x 5' wide, embedded in the floor. An inattentive visitor could walk over it and not even notice. A more fun approach is to turn to a guest, point out the photograph, and ask them to tell you the exact date and time of day the photo was taken.

The usual first response was “I have no idea.” Then the visitor would start to think. The photo shows the trees are bare, so you can narrow it down to the October to March time frame. The parking lots are empty, so you can narrow it down further to weekends and holidays. Right there, you’re down to sixty days, which eliminates 85 percent of the calendar. A good start.

Next you can look for certain buildings with known construction dates. The Kennedy Center is visible in the photograph, so you can be sure it was taken after 1970, and so on. A more expert analyst with access to public records of building permits in Washington, D.C., could go block by block and narrow down the date to a particular year based on the presence or absence of certain buildings.

As for the time of day, once you have narrowed down the possible dates and have an azimuth of the sun on those dates, the shadow of the Washington Monument is the world’s largest sundial. Your visitor leaves the museum feeling like they just finished a day shift analyzing imagery at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.

Of course, lipstick guns and black-and-white photos seem primitive compared to the digitized, miniaturized, spectroscopic technology available to spies today. That misses the point. The ingenuity on display in the CIA Museum is impressive on its own and conjures up the romance and deadly seriousness of Cold War espionage. Interestingly, old-school tools and tradecraft are suddenly new again. Sophisticated hacking tools and flash drives have made even the most advanced digital systems highly vulnerable. Intelligence agencies are reverting to nondigital devices to avoid intrusions. Recently the Russian FSB intelligence service, successor to the KGB, ordered typewriters for use in preparing internal reports and memos. Typewriters cannot be hacked and leave no digital trails. The brush pass, dead drop, and one-time pads are all back in style among spies and case officers.

The inverse of intelligence is counterintelligence, the search for spies aimed at your own organization. The best counterintelligence tool is compartmentalization. Access to intelligence is broken into compartments or cells within the intelligence community. These cells typically consist of small groups of individuals working on a discrete problem. A top secret security clearance including special access programs beyond top secret is not enough to gain access to a wide array of classified information. It is also necessary to have a “need to know,” which is demonstrated by a written or verbal application to a security officer. Once the need to know is established, a cleared person would still have to be “read in” to a project by a project director or team leader. Even when these hurdles are cleared, the person seeking access may still have to work with IT administrators to open up the necessary links or pages in the CIA’s internal secure servers. This process is repeated every time a new topic is addressed or a new assignment given.

CIA personnel are trained to be wary of “social engineering.” That’s a technical term for simple friendliness to strangers. If you were in line to buy a cup of coffee in a Starbucks, it might not seem unusual to start a polite conversation with the person next to you in line about the weather or slow service or anything else, for that matter. The CIA has a Starbucks located on the main floor of OHB, near the cafeteria. It’s reputed to be the world’s busiest Starbucks, because it’s open 24/7 and has plenty of caffeine-addicted customers with nowhere else to go. It’s bad form to chat up a stranger while waiting in line. The object of your inquiry is trained to ask herself, “Why is he talking to me? What does he want? Is he trying to glean information out of his lane?” and so on, as if you were a new Aldrich Ames. This lends an all-business air to daily encounters; not the friendliest workplace environment, yet the social distance serves its purpose.

Compartmentalization can be cumbersome and slow, but it works well. The most damaging leaks of classified information in recent years involving Chelsea Manning and Edward Snowden did not come from CIA files. Manning released State Department information, and Snowden’s information came from the National Security Agency, or NSA. The CIA has been victimized by internal moles in the past, and will be again, but on the whole, it has done a better job of protecting secrets that some of its sister agencies in the intelligence community, or IC.

The darkest agency I ever worked with, and the one most directly involved in counterintelligence, is the NCIX, or National Counterintelligence Executive. That agency is the successor to the work of legendary mole hunter James Jesus Angleton, who headed CIA counterintelligence from 1954 to 1975. NCIX staff are spy hunters who not only look for foreign spies but also look for moles, traitors, and leakers inside the IC. NCIX also hunts down supposed double agents (American spies pretending to be Russian spies who are actually loyal to America) who are really triple agents (American spies pretending to be Russian spies who really are Russian spies). This ontology of deceit and deception is called the wilderness of mirrors.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Portfolio (July 23, 2019)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 336 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0735216959
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0735216952
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.1 pounds
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.3 x 1.2 x 9.3 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #99,458 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #106 in Money & Monetary Policy (Books)
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James Rickards

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James Rickards is the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a financial newsletter, and Director of The James Rickards Project, an inquiry into the complex dynamics of geopolitics + global capital. He is the author of The New Case for Gold (April 2016), and two New York Times best sellers, The Death of Money (2014), and Currency Wars (2011) from Penguin Random House. He is a portfolio manager, lawyer, and economist, and has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. In 1998, he was the principal negotiator of the rescue of LTCM sponsored by the Federal Reserve. His clients include institutional investors and government directorates. He is an Op-Ed contributor to the Financial Times, Evening Standard, New York Times, and Washington Post, and has been interviewed on BBC, CNN, NPR, C- SPAN, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, and The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Rickards is a guest lecturer in globalization and finance at The Johns Hopkins University, The Kellogg School at Northwestern, and the School of Advanced International Studies. He has delivered papers on risk at Singularity University, the Applied Physics Laboratory, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory. He is an advisor on capital markets to the U.S. intelligence community, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and is on the Advisory Board of the Center on Sanctions & Illicit Finance in Washington DC. Mr. Rickards holds an LL.M. (Taxation) from the NYU School of Law; a J.D. from the University of Pennsylvania Law School; an M.A. in international economics from SAIS, and a B.A. (with honors) from Johns Hopkins. He lives in New Hampshire.

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ALARMIST TOME

Reviewed in the United States on July 23, 2019

Aftermath is described by the author as “the last volume in an international monetary quartet that began with Currency Wars (2011) and continued through The Death of Money (2013) and The Road to Ruin (2016).” I have not read those earlier volumes, but I suspect if you read them all, you have likely been waiting with bated breath for Aftermath.

I am old enough to have seen books like this before, prophesying the coming financial collapse and the end of life as we know it. In 1979, I was on a road trip with my mother and stepfather during which she spent the entire trip reading aloud from Howard J. Ruff's How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years: A Crash Course on Personal and Financial Survival. It was the summer before I headed off to college; I was interested in a bright future, not doom and gloom. Nearly 20 years later, apparently having learned nothing, I found myself reading Harry E. Figgle's Bankruptcy 1995: The Coming Collapse of America and How to Stop It, in which the author predicted the coming financial ruin of the U.S., which would then face Latin American level financial collapse. (his example, not mine) The Coming Collapse was not stopped, but neither did it occur. As with Aftermath, the people who benefited the most financially from the sale of these books were the authors, not the readers.

These two books at least had the advantage of exuding a sort of folksy charm. Not so Aftermath which runs the gamut from boring to hyperbole, with a few entertaining anecdotes thrown in. Although, seriously, mostly boring. It is simultaneously painfully dull and well written, which is to say it is not rife with grammatical inaccuracies.

Some random observations:
- Aftermath opens with a quote from Revelations before launching into Greek Mythology.
- The author thinks Gerald Ford will one day be known as a great president.
- He disses Hillary Clinton.
- He gushes about Trump, comparing him to Teddy Roosevelt as a fellow nationalist.

By far the most interesting part of the book is when Rickard discusses the plot of Lionel Shriver's The Mandibles: A Family, 2029-2047, which is a novel about life in the U.S. following financial collapse. He holds this book up as a realistic depiction of our future (much more so than, say, a zombie apocalypse, which I find truly disappointing). I intend to take a look at this novel because it does sound interesting, despite the fact that Rickard describes the book in such detail that I already know how it ends. (Seriously, if I were Lionel Shriver, I'd be pretty ticked.) I do like my post-apocalyptic fiction.

BOTTOM LINE: No one can predict the future. Rickard's does not have a magic crystal ball or special arcane knowledge so that he and he alone can glimpse the future and provide you with guidance. He does not have a special monopoly on some secret knowledge. Seriously, if the fields of economics and finances could actually give real insight into the future, don't you think the major financial problems we've seen in our lifetimes would have been avoided? Rickard is preying on your fear of the unknown (and unknowable) future. The only thing that can truly be known is that if you buy this book, you are throwing away your money. And that's no secret.

196 people found this helpful

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Amazon Customer

Not what title is

Reviewed in the United States on July 26, 2019

Verified Purchase

Big History lesson - no guidance on what to do after collapse - don't wast your money

103 people found this helpful

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Marsha Dahleeng

If you make investment decisions, read this!

Reviewed in the United States on July 31, 2019

Verified Purchase

This is Jim Rickards final - and probably the best - of his quartet series. It contains his assessment of current capital market concerns, and the resulting storm he suspects will unfold. I hope he’s wrong - but I think he’s probably right.

In all of Rickards books you’ll find detailed explanations on complex financial matters. I particularly appreciate his insights on relative geopolitical elements - and he’s bluntly factual when assessing the financial impact of politics in our divided nation. Like David and the slingshot, Rickards doesn’t mind popping giants right between the eyes, regardless of their political party or elite world status.

In this book I found it helpful to read the conclusion chapter first, getting a sense of where he might be going with the “Aftermath” theme. “Mandibles Redux” in that chapter was appreciated by this reader; Rickards is a better writer than Lionel Shriver, in my opinion.

If I had not already digested the three earlier books, I wouldn’t have gotten the full value of this book. If you’ve not read them, I recommend you at least read his “Currency Wars” and “The Death of Money” before this one... please keep in mind the year each was written, tho. “The Case for Gold” is the other quartet book.

Mr. Rickards’ investment advice in this book is general, cautious and intended to be beneficial to the reader - he seems to have written it in such a way as to ensure you will not over-react; its not “ alarmist.” Rickards wisely points the reader in a clear, helpful direction, encouraging you to make a few simple changes so the storm doesn’t hurt you as badly as it potentially could. He wants the reader to understand the forces in play right now that could crumble capital markets. Knowledge is power.

55 people found this helpful

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Ty

In depth history lesson - couldn’t read it

Reviewed in the United States on August 4, 2019

Verified Purchase

In depth history lesson...unreadable. I never leave reviews but this was not what I was expecting....

Give me some actionable advice!

49 people found this helpful

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Pockets

The real scoop

Reviewed in the United States on July 26, 2019

Verified Purchase

James Rickards is a rare individual. His breadth of experience in economics and government is virtually superhuman in scope. His writing is very understandable, and he provides information that you are unlikely to find anywhere else. He levels with his readers and provides analyses that get to where 'the rubber meets the road' in global politics and the global economy.

30 people found this helpful

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Vinyl Buddy

Reason In a World Consumed By Euphoria

Reviewed in the United States on July 25, 2019

Verified Purchase

In 2019 we are in the depths of the longest economic expansion in US history, stocks are at all time highs, investors are funneling money into the market as if positive returns are a sure thing. It should be no secret that investors have been consumed by euphoria and the Fed is on standby ready to feed the fire. Despite the current economic expansion being the longest in history, it has been an expansion of disappointing growth and a loss of prosperity for the average American.

In this book, Rickard's shines a light on the structural issues facing the US economy, and he does so in an eloquent, easy to read fashion. I have been an avid reader of Rickard's work since the release of his first book, and I'm quite pleased to add Aftermath to my bookshelf.

30 people found this helpful

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Ollie Winslow

Informative and Engaging

Reviewed in the United States on July 24, 2019

Verified Purchase

It is not often that I read a book on this topic that addresses so many complexities behind the issues it discusses. I felt that Rickards did an excellent job covering so many aspects of wealth preservation while still keeping it interesting. I've read all of Rickards books and Aftermath is easily my favorite. Americans need to take his writings and warnings seriously and learn how to protect themselves from the financial perils that await! Thank you Jim for another home run!

24 people found this helpful

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Top reviews from other countries

aragornsmum

Coronavirus

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on April 7, 2020

Verified Purchase

OMG....read this at the height of the 2020 pandemic. Even though the author doesn't mention a virus, he speculates (in 2018) on a 2020 Black Swan event with the world financial situation as it is, and it's consequences. I am am genuinely fearful of what may come to pass in the next few years. #OwnSomeGold.

9 people found this helpful

igor

In Experts We Trust

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 2, 2019

Verified Purchase

I found this in my Kindle library, presumably bought on recommendation from a forgotten source. Being mildly financially illiterate this is at times pretty heavy going with necessary explanations of theoretical economic ideas. However this is balanced with clear illustrations of why the proposed outcome has a solid basis in facts which are glossed over by the mainstream.

5 people found this helpful

I. Radford

Not as readable as his previous books

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 15, 2019

Verified Purchase

Felt a little repetitive and formulaic. Didn't cover a whole lot of new ground and I actually found it hard to get through. Some valuable insights though.

7 people found this helpful

excellent book

Waste of time as 99% of it is noise

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on November 18, 2020

Verified Purchase

I bought this book after seeing James Rickards on Youtube, however, the majority of the book is just a load of noise with very few points made. For example he mentions a meeting that he attends, but instead of informing about this meeting he describes in detail the hotel in which the meeting was help, as I said most of this is noise.
This is probably the worst book I have picked up in many years and can't recommend.

3 people found this helpful

DT

Insightful and Entertaining View of International Economics

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on January 24, 2021

Verified Purchase

Mr. Rickards does it again. He takes the reader on a colourful illustrated journey through the interconnected web of International economics, gently pointing out the alligator pits as he goes. Superbly referenced, sardonic, pragmatic. Whilst he cannot cover every aspect, every theory, he does a great job of opening eyes to risk and opportunity.

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Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos Hardcover – July 23, 2019

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Buy new:

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FREE delivery: May 20 - 24

Ships from: SellerSisters

Sold by: SellerSisters

Buy used:

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