Six chapters, ignore the intro and conclusion, that leaves four chapters of meat. Three chapters are background on small wars, contingency operations, low intensity conflict, insurgency, counterinsurgency etc (pick your own buzzword), and one on quantitative analytical approaches for intelligence analysis.
The three chapters of background material are based predominately (arguably, exclusively) on secondary sources. It's academic, excessively and unnecessarily intellectualized, and is more clearly presented in The Art of War by Mao Tse-Tung - Special Edition. The discussion of the role of intelligence in conventional and other than conventional conflict draws erroneous and unneeded distinctions. The fundamental difference between conventional and unconventional conflict is barely mentioned, and apparently not well understood; U.S. forces trained against the Soviet machine or a threat modelled after the Soviets continuously from 1947 to 2001. Three generations of military leaders studied a single pattern of conflict against a well documented opposing force. This rut created the illusion that small wars are unconventional, when historically, small wars have occupied the U.S. military for most of its existence. And in small wars, each opponent is distinct, with a unique set of tactics, strategy, and tools, rather than the cookie cutter, Soviet playbook and equipment. Between this, the intro, and the conclusion, I could barely muster enough interest to give it two stars.
The chapter on quantitative approaches pulled up the rating, but the utility for me remains very limited, hence the less than stellar (or less stellar) overall rating. The challenges to data collection in a small war are clearly articulated, and the impact of imperfect data on quantitative methods is discussed. Mathmatical modeling to support geospatial analysis is concisely discussed. Guidelines for developing predictive tools are laid out, and extremely well considered. The need for analysis of human networks is discussed, and the need to integrate this analysis with geospatial information presentations is well described. Interaction between friendly elements and threat elements and the impact on analysis is probably the best discussion in the book.
This is a very specialized work. Unless you're involved with quantitative tools and approaches to predictive analysis in low intensity conflict, don't bother.
E. M. Van Court
- Paperback: 84 pages
- Publisher: RAND Corporation (June 6, 2008)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 0833044567
- ISBN-13: 978-0833044563
- Product Dimensions: 6.1 x 0.2 x 9.1 inches
- Shipping Weight: 5.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
- Average Customer Review: 1 customer review
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Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#6,289,688 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #5169 in Intelligence & Espionage History
- #10836 in National & International Security (Books)
- #9049 in Terrorism (Books)
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