Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population (Belfer Center Studies in International Security) Paperback – September 23, 2005

A difficult read simply because of the litany of mistreatment of women, girls, and female infants. The scholarly detachment (which I suspect was an effort for the authors) makes it all the more disturbing.

A very important book and perspective, however.

Good book for information if you are doing college essay papers and you need information on the
affects that controlling male/ female population can cause.

I first encountered these prescient researchers in 2001, about the time of 9/11. Things then were heating up between India and Pakistan and I wrote a 12/22/01 piece for The Social Contract entitled "The India/Pakistani War Comes From Unbalanced Population Growth" These authors,one at Brigham Young University, Valerie M. Hudson and Andrea M. Den Boer at University of Kent in the UK, had just published a landmark paper under the rather arcane title, "The Security Logic of High Sex Ratio Societies", a stunning article which points to "a variable that will become highly significant in Asia within the next two decades. That variable is the young adult sex ratio. The sex ratios of many Asian nations, including the two who now are facing off (again) Pakistan and India, are being skewed in favor of males on a scale unprecedented in human history."

Shortly afterwards in the distinguished periodical, "International Security", their article explored the "violent dynamics of ...high sex ratio populations", clearly identifying the potential security dangers for our planet which have resulted from the rapidly growing populations of the past hundred years and the bias favoring male children over females in key Asian nations.

"Normal birth sex ratios range between 105-107 males per 100 female births". Their data for 7 Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Taiwan) shows "from 66 to 86 million of the missing females in Asia are attributed to the above", but two of them, "China and India together contribute to between 61 and 68 million." Many now feel the number is higher, perhaps 100 million. And the ratio in recent years has increased rapidly in both. For example, In Punjab, the sex ratio of children from zero to 6 years of age is now 126 males to every 100 females.

While "sex selection" is illegal in both India and China, the "director of the Demography Institute at Beijing University freely admits that there exists `the loss of female births due to illegal prenatal sex determination and sex-selective abortion, creating an unbalanced population sex structure .....resulting in potentially serious social problems'."Remember, "China and India alone comprise over 38% of the world's population".

Well, after September 11th, we should all understand and care about this condition. Let these experts explain why. This and other recent studies have shown that where what the authors call surplus young adult males (what I have dubbed "rogue males") predominate, instability is often rife. And as we know now, this surplus of "rogue males" can lead to "rogue" governments which harbor and abet terrorists as in Afghanistan and elsewhere all over the Middle East.

This book goes to treat this subject in China, where these surplus males, are called, "guang gun-er" or "bare sticks or bare branches", as these will never marry (bear fruit!), "because no marriage partner might be found for them."

By 2020, these authors predict there will be 40 million "bare sticks" for China alone! These are not your Western type bachelors. Indeed, "single men in the West are not surplus males; they can and often do form .....attachments to women and produce children in that context." These "bare sticks" don't have that chance; often they come from the lowest socio-economic class, are un- or under-employed, live a nomadic lifestyle with few ties to the communities in which they are working, generally living and socializing with other "bare sticks"'. Thus, their behavior "follows a broadly predictable pattern", prone to seek satisfaction through "vice and violence".

In China, these "bare sticks" cause "the overwhelming percentage of violent crime". One scholar has shown that "an unmarried man between 24 and 35 is about 3 times as likely to murder another male as is a married man of the same age." Also to rob, rape and, yes, join others in proving to his kind his manliness! The worst among them is to them the best! These men have "nothing to lose but their reputations for violence". They are juicy pluckings for Osama Bin Ladin types. Marriage tames testosterone which the authors feel may explain low levels of criminality among married men.

A 17th Century observer put it, "Heretical teachings start by inciting, deluding and gathering people, but end by planning rebellion."

Governments with these ratios face "vexing policy dilemmas". Their governance must be more authoritarian, "must cultivate a political style crafted to retain the allegiance and respect of its bare branches." China has a "floating population" of 150 million, many of them are young surplus adult males (i.s. "bare branches"). Beijing Review reports that 80% of its crime comes from "migrants"--these floaters!

The authors note that "much the same analysis can be made" for India. Many of its legislators are criminals. Kidnaping in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar "is a way of life". Thus, what we see happening today, a continuing and probably escalating war between India and Pakistan is in some ways a logical policy option for these governments with too many "rouge males. What to do? Send them to war probably is better than killing them outright or putting too many in jail. These weak governments are often strongly influenced by street demonstrations, riots, and other bloody assaults. These authors of this sex ratio study have confidently and, in my view, correctly predicted a continuing and increasingly dangerous war over Kashmir between India and Pakistan, both with these dangerous high sex ratios.

And what has happened in America since our immigration laws were changed in 1965? The "open border" policies of our major parties have allowed at least 8 million illegal aliens to remain here, many even after deportation orders are issued against them. And Congress just adjourned without passing a Visa Control Bill, which among other things would have strengthened foreign student tracking and instituted machine readable biometric IDs on visas and some passports.

American policies for dealing with this looming rogue male issue must include 1. A staunch refusal to allow ourselves to be overrun with rogue males or any large foreign contingent who can't be readily absorbed into our nation's culture and values, 2. Enlargement of foreign assistance, especially better controlled and directed toward providing family planning services, and 3. A better understanding of the governance problems in places such as China and India. These governments are not living in Kansas, Dorothy, but in a real world often close to anarchy.

Why bleat about human rights to governments just trying to survive in a jungle? These fragile governments need our patience, our understanding and our carefully directed economic aid, not the US imperical militarium which has dominated of our failed foreign policies for decades.

About the Author: Collins, a free lance writer living in Washington, has traveled extensively in developing nations for over 40 years.

In their academic work, Bare Branches, Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer describe the causes of the high sex ratio in China and India, observed effects and future implications. They also suggest policy options and evaluate their merits.

Sex ratio is the ratio of men to women. The average sex ratio worldwide is 105 (105 men for every 100 women). China and India have higher than average sex ratios that have lead to a large surplus of males on the order of millions in both societies.

The high sex ratio in China is driven by a long history of preference for sons over daughters to preserve the family name, provide agricultural labor and care for parents in their old age. The preference for sons is intensified by the one child policy that limits the number of children to one per family.

These cultural forces have resulted to sex selective abortions, infanticide and infant abandonment. Further they have resulted in bare branches - unmarried males with a propensity for substance abuse, gambling and violent crime. Typically these males are unemployed or underemployed, did not graduate from high school and lack a permanent residence. They tend to congregate in migrant bachelor subcultures.

Future implications are frightening. One possibility is a government unable to control large and violent bachelor subcultures. Another possibility is an increased recruitment into the military or police force - with attendant propensities for violence that may be directed internally or towards neighboring countries.

In this reviewer's opinion, of the several policies that could help the gender imbalance, these seem to have the highest probability of success.

· the repeal of the one child policy

· government care of abandoned girls to adulthood

· government safety nets for the elderly to decrease financial reliance on sons

· policies that elevate the value of women

There seems to be a weakness however, in the ability of "policy" to affect "values". Policy usually translates into propaganda. And propaganda has had limited success in changing thousands of years of cultural values.

Hundreds of thousands of infants are abandoned annually in China. The majority of these infants are girls. In 1997, the total number of Chinese infants adopted by American citizen was 3314. Clearly, adoption by foreign nationals is not a complete solution to the problem. What else can we do to influence the situation without offending the great nation of China? If you have ideas, please let me know.

I thank Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer for and for giving us an understanding of the importance of gender issues in China and India.

This recent MIT Press book makes a significant contribution to national security literature and, at the same time, takes it in a new and exciting direction. Order-of-battle analysts would do well to add sex-ratios to the list of variables on which they collect information. Not every reader will be convinced by the argument of this book, but most will find it stimulating, thought-provoking, and very well-written. I hope it escapes the classification as solely a gender studies book. It is much more than that and deserves the attention of scholars, foreign policy experts, and national-security gurus.

After reading the article about this book in the Chronicle of Higher Education, I purchased it out of pure curiosity, admittedly prepared to reject the idea that the surplus male population in Asia could pose a threat to international security. However, I was astounded by the authors' very convincing and thorougly researched findings, which highlighted what I never imagined was such a strong linkage between international security and gender selection in Asia. Not exactly "beach reading," but most definitely suitable for university teaching and a good read for anyone interested in gender selection or security issues.