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Baseball Prospectus 2007: The Essential Guide to the 2007 Baseball Season Paperback – March 2, 2007
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Baseball Prospectus is one of the first things I read every day. -- Theo Epstein, general manager of the 2004 World Champion Boston Red Sox
I never cease to be blown away by how the geniuses at Baseball Prospectus can provide you with new insights into players and teams you thought you couldnt possibly have followed more closely. Theyre amazing. -- Jayson Stark, ESPN
The clear successor to Bill Jamess Baseball Abstract. -- John Sickels, author of The Baseball Prospect Book
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Top Customer Reviews
My favorite team is the Chicago White Sox. Let's take a look at this team, to get a sense of what this volume contributes. One neat feature of the volume is its prediction of what might happen for each player in the coming year--a breakout year, improvement, collapse, and attrition. For instance, the book suggests that, for Joe Crede, the odds of a breakout year are 33%, for improvement 59%, for a collapse 15%, and for attrition (severe decline in plate appearances or innings pitched) 9%. For Chisox fans, sounds good. What about Jim Thome? Breakout=14%; improvement=37%; collapse=37%; attrition=28%. Oops. makes me nervous if there is over 1/3 likelihood that his performance collapses. Pitchers? Mark Buehrle is projected as having the following odds: Breakout=14%; Improve=50%; Collapse=16%; Attrition=0%.
There are also data on managers' decision making. Despite his reputation as a hot head, Ozzie Guillen looks pretty good in his handling of starting pitchers, relievers, and the basics of sacrifice bunts.
Nice appendices at the end, too. One of these is a listing of the top 100 minor league prospects. For those who are interested, the top prospect is Alex Gordon (in the Royals' farm system), a 23 year old 3rd baseman. Next is Yankee prospect Philip Hughes, a 21 year old pitcher. And so on.
This is manna from heaven for baseball addicts. It complements the Bill James' works nicely.
p.s. to another reviewer: The author of Moneyball is Michael Lewis, not Billy Beane.
Are there typos, omissions and proof-reading/editing gaffes as in past years? Yes, though they seem to have dwindled in # and severity.
I too wish they would delay the book a few days and really go over it with a fine-tooth comb, but given the voluminous data presented, and the public clamoring for an early publication date, I guess something has to give.
For those critical of the paper quality (and I was one such person), please note that I e-mailed the editor at the publishing house, and was told that given the # of pages, some consideration for the paper weight had to be made, lest the book become a literal paperweight. The tannish color of the paper comes along with the lighter paper weight.
(If you've ever seen the annual editions of the Sports Encyclopedia: Baseball, which run well over 800 pages, you'll recognize the paper weight and color. So it seems to be an industry standard for certain encyclopedic page-size tomes over X pages).
As for the actual content, well its everything you've come to expect from BP .... the wit, the confidence and skill in their projections, the candor to admit when they've blown a projection, the team essays which nail the critical aspects of why the team ended 2006 as they did, and what 2007 may hold for them. The essays in the back of the book are as thought-provoking as as diverse as ever.
Count me in as a continuing fan of BP and their annual.
- Manager section
- Statistical overlay that shows BABIP for pitchers
- Much more accurate PECOTAs than year past IMO
- Top 100 Prospect List
- Wider variety of different perspectives
- Some editing errors, but, for a 600-page book that was shipped out ASAP, not nearly as many as the review below me would have you believe. And they left out four players, only two of which (Beltre and Wickman) should be meaningful this season.
- Inexplicably no BABIP for hitters
That's the only "bad," really. There are not as many new ideas introduced in this book as in the last book; rather than new ideas, old ones have been much improved, so, depending on your perspective, it more than balances out. For such a low price, it would be foolish of you to pass up this book.