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Baseball Prospectus 2007: The Essential Guide to the 2007 Baseball Season Paperback – March 2, 2007

4.4 out of 5 stars 30 customer reviews

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Editorial Reviews


Baseball Prospectus is one of the first things I read every day. -- Theo Epstein, general manager of the 2004 World Champion Boston Red Sox

I never cease to be blown away by how the geniuses at Baseball Prospectus can provide you with new insights into players and teams you thought you couldn’t possibly have followed more closely. They’re amazing. -- Jayson Stark, ESPN

The clear successor to Bill James’s Baseball Abstract. -- John Sickels, author of The Baseball Prospect Book

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Product Details

  • Series: Baseball Prospectus
  • Paperback: 608 pages
  • Publisher: Plume; 12 edition (March 2, 2007)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0452288258
  • ISBN-13: 978-0452288256
  • Product Dimensions: 8.4 x 1.7 x 10.8 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 2.4 pounds
  • Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (30 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,277,115 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

By Hal Jordan VINE VOICE on March 10, 2007
Verified Purchase
For those of us who remember the old Bill James Baseball Abstract, Baseball Prospectus is about as close as you can come these days. Nothing, of course, can match the pioneering articles James published in the Abstract, but the Prospectus provides the most comprehensive, informative, and amusing player comments you are likely to find along with a few interesting research articles. I can't give any book whose publication I look forward to so eagerly anything less than five stars, but I agree with one of the other reviewers that the editing is very shaky and has been for years. This year the editing seems to have improved a bit, but there are still some player comments, and even team overviews, that don't appear to have been proofread, much less edited. This year's most significant glitch: Each player comment lists the four most comparable players, using the PECOTA system. Unfortunately, when the comparables are mentioned in the body of the comment, the players mentioned don't usually match the players listed. Apparently, they changed how the comparables were calculated and came up with new lists after the comments were written. Every year I end up wishing they had delayed publication for a week or two to allow time for some final editing. One other problem this year is that the book is printed on grade zzz paper with the result that the printing on some pages is blurred.

p.s. to another reviewer: The author of Moneyball is Michael Lewis, not Billy Beane.
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BP's 2007 Prospectus clocks in at over 600 pages, and there is very little fluff within those pages.

Are there typos, omissions and proof-reading/editing gaffes as in past years? Yes, though they seem to have dwindled in # and severity.

I too wish they would delay the book a few days and really go over it with a fine-tooth comb, but given the voluminous data presented, and the public clamoring for an early publication date, I guess something has to give.

For those critical of the paper quality (and I was one such person), please note that I e-mailed the editor at the publishing house, and was told that given the # of pages, some consideration for the paper weight had to be made, lest the book become a literal paperweight. The tannish color of the paper comes along with the lighter paper weight.

(If you've ever seen the annual editions of the Sports Encyclopedia: Baseball, which run well over 800 pages, you'll recognize the paper weight and color. So it seems to be an industry standard for certain encyclopedic page-size tomes over X pages).

As for the actual content, well its everything you've come to expect from BP .... the wit, the confidence and skill in their projections, the candor to admit when they've blown a projection, the team essays which nail the critical aspects of why the team ended 2006 as they did, and what 2007 may hold for them. The essays in the back of the book are as thought-provoking as as diverse as ever.

Count me in as a continuing fan of BP and their annual.
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This is like a Bill James moment. This volume looks at each major league team and key players for the coming campaign. It provides neat statistics like a SPEED score (a takeoff on what Bill James has created), Marginal Lineup Value estimate (MLVr--the estimated value of a player), and so on.

My favorite team is the Chicago White Sox. Let's take a look at this team, to get a sense of what this volume contributes. One neat feature of the volume is its prediction of what might happen for each player in the coming year--a breakout year, improvement, collapse, and attrition. For instance, the book suggests that, for Joe Crede, the odds of a breakout year are 33%, for improvement 59%, for a collapse 15%, and for attrition (severe decline in plate appearances or innings pitched) 9%. For Chisox fans, sounds good. What about Jim Thome? Breakout=14%; improvement=37%; collapse=37%; attrition=28%. Oops. makes me nervous if there is over 1/3 likelihood that his performance collapses. Pitchers? Mark Buehrle is projected as having the following odds: Breakout=14%; Improve=50%; Collapse=16%; Attrition=0%.

There are also data on managers' decision making. Despite his reputation as a hot head, Ozzie Guillen looks pretty good in his handling of starting pitchers, relievers, and the basics of sacrifice bunts.

Nice appendices at the end, too. One of these is a listing of the top 100 minor league prospects. For those who are interested, the top prospect is Alex Gordon (in the Royals' farm system), a 23 year old 3rd baseman. Next is Yankee prospect Philip Hughes, a 21 year old pitcher. And so on.

This is manna from heaven for baseball addicts. It complements the Bill James' works nicely.
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If you are interested in bettering your knowledge in sabermetrics, baseball, fantasy sports, or just as a guideline for expectations for this upcoming year, BP 07 is the 600-page, easy-to-read resource you need. The main improvements:

- Manager section

- Statistical overlay that shows BABIP for pitchers

- Much more accurate PECOTAs than year past IMO

- Top 100 Prospect List

- Wider variety of different perspectives

The bad:

- Some editing errors, but, for a 600-page book that was shipped out ASAP, not nearly as many as the review below me would have you believe. And they left out four players, only two of which (Beltre and Wickman) should be meaningful this season.

- Inexplicably no BABIP for hitters

That's the only "bad," really. There are not as many new ideas introduced in this book as in the last book; rather than new ideas, old ones have been much improved, so, depending on your perspective, it more than balances out. For such a low price, it would be foolish of you to pass up this book.
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