- Paperback: 150 pages
- Publisher: Ned Davis Research Inc (October 2000)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 0970265107
- ISBN-13: 978-0970265104
- Package Dimensions: 8.4 x 7.9 x 0.6 inches
- Shipping Weight: 13.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
- Average Customer Review: 5 customer reviews
- Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,845,720 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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Being Right or Making Money
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About the Author
A Phi Beta Kappa graduate of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, who attended the Harvard Graduate School of Business, Ned Davis has been professionally involved in the stock market since 1966. The institutionally oriented Ned Davis Research, based in Venice, Florida, produces nine different timing services, and has built one of the largest independent research firms on Wall Street.
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
...So as I studied other long-term winners on Wall Street, I found that instinctively or otherwise, they had come to the same conclusions that I had. While the methods of Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, or John Tempelton have been very different from my market-timing orientation, the fact is that all of these men have been very humble, made a lot of mistakes, and rarely if ever get headlines about a spectacular call. Yet, they all use objective methods for picking stocks, their investment philosophy is very disciplined and designed to limit risks, and they are flexible when they must be.
So this book is not designed to challenge those of you who are long-term fundamentalists or short-term technicians. Instead, you will be shown some tools that hopefully will help you to be more "right" more often. But much more importantly, this book will show you that being right is not really where it's at, since at least as much of your focus should be on risk management tactics, a disciplined strategy, and flexibility...
...Thus, the bottom line at Ned Davis Research is that our timing models, at every stage of development, are designed with one thought in mind, and that is "controlling big mistakes."...
...I feel strongly that if you are objective, disciplined, flexible, and risk averse, the methods presented in this book can turn you into a money-making machine.
Top customer reviews
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This is a place where many might have started, as it provides an excellent foundation for market analysis and the formation of a life time investing plan. The book's emphasis is not on how to make a fortune day trading, but rather it teaches investors how to make sense out of information that truly forecasts the future of the market.
There are several chapters on how to create asset allocation models in both bonds and stocks. And it is here that investors will find hidden jewels such as how to make sense out of contrarian opinion and how to analyze the stock market's momentum.
The book is written with a general audience in mind, and has great long term indicator charts that clearly illustrate how and when the indicators work, as well as the results of their buy and sell signals. Highly recommended for those who are truly serious about investing, and those who are looking for better forecasting tools...
Maybe you've seen Ned Davis on CNBC or CNN; he's often quoted in Barron's and The Wall Street Journal; he's been in the business for over thirty years and has a lot to offer. He's also a good study of the old pros, such as George Soros and Peter Lynch. From them he has gathered four traits that are key to maintaining success. They are: Objectivity, Flexibility, Discipline and Risk Management. Hard to argue here.
With the four common traits of successful money managers as a base, the book brings the Ned Davis Research Group's insights and experience to the table. A dissection of what contributed to the stock market bubble of 2000 and a no-nonsense look into what is moving our economy right now are key features to this edition. The economy model building process and analyses of stock and bond market timing are also discussed in depth. Though the content-type is academic, I found the commentary to be refreshingly concise and practical.
According to Ned Davis, the business of speculating is largely psychological. Great quotes and facts about crowd psychology are influential for understanding the markets. As he states:
"In case we are being swept up by the crowd or in case our own reality becomes badly distorted, what we need is an unbiased, objective standard that will weigh the evidence and pass judgment devoid of emotionalism."
The overall composition of this book is tuned more for a position trader rather than a pure day trader. You won't find exercises to hone your entry skills, but the wisdom and market insight are like vitamins that will keep you focused and on-target for profits. No matter what your trading goals are, this book will keep you pointed in the right direction.
The rest of the chapters are written by staff members of NDR. The book contains several timing models with historical performance. While some of the models rely on data not easily obtained, the breadth of ideas is impressive.