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Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint: Crushed by Credit and Deceived by Debt — How to Revive the Global Economy Hardcover – November 3, 2011

3.9 out of 5 stars 20 customer reviews

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Editorial Reviews

From the Back Cover

During the Great Depression, legendary British economist John Maynard Keynes advocated using government money to fill the economic void until consumer spending and business investment recovered. But what happens when governments can’t do that anymore? That’s “The Keynesian Endpoint”: when the money runs out before the economy has been rescued, and investors refuse to accept any more sovereign debt.

 

That’s where we are. In the United States and worldwide, debt-fueled spending programs devised to cure the global financial crisis have morphed into poison. Exhausted national balance sheets have left policy makers with few viable options to bolster economic growth, pointing leaders and citizens toward brutal choices that were previously unimaginable.

 

In Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint , PIMCO Executive Vice President, portfolio manager, and market strategist Tony Crescenzi illuminates the frightening new world we now inhabit. Crescenzi dissects each scenario swirling around the mounting global debt crisis and reveals its profound implications for governments, investors, and the global economy.

 

Surviving the world’s greatest hangover

Welcome to the morning after America’s 30-year consumption binge

 

The dangerous use of fiscal illusions by politicians

How politicians hoodwinked the public and ballooned our debts

 

The investment implications of the Keynesian Endpoint

How to keep your portfolio afloat while other investors flounder

 

From endpoint to new beginning

How the Endpoint is leading to the transformation of a century


About the Author

Tony Crescenzi is Executive Vice President, Market Strategist, and Portfolio Manager for PIMCO, a leading global investment management firm. He was previously Chief Bond Market Strategist at Miller Tabak, where he worked for 23 years.

 

Crescenzi appears regularly on CNBC and Bloomberg, has guest-hosted Squawk Box, and has taught at Baruch College’s executive MBA program for 10 years. He has 28 years of investment experience and holds an MBA from St. John’s University and an undergraduate degree from the City University of New York.

 

His books include Investing from the Top Down, the recent Fourth Edition of Marcia Stigum’s 1,200-page classic The Money Market, and The Strategic Bond Investor, Second Edition.

 

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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 304 pages
  • Publisher: FT Press; 1 edition (November 3, 2011)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0132595214
  • ISBN-13: 978-0132595216
  • Product Dimensions: 6.3 x 1 x 9.3 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds
  • Average Customer Review: 3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (20 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #914,092 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

By Charles Montgomery on November 22, 2011
Format: Hardcover Vine Customer Review of Free Product ( What's this? )
This is a well written book. It begins by telling us laypeople just what the Keynesian Endpoint is and then how we (or any nation) reached this point in our economic history. Then he tells us the ramifications of having reached this KEP and finally some ways individuals can protect themselves from the position in which we have found ourselves. The author seems to be writing from an Austrian school viewpoint and insightfully lays out the causes of our present economic problems and goes further to address some ways out.

Keynes argued essentially that in times of economic downturn that government spending money obtained by borrowing would cause a multiplier effect on the economy thus pulling it out of recession.
Crescenzi sets forth to show us what has happened to our economy and why the Keynes theories won't/ can't work in the future. First he shows how we reach the KEP where there is no longer money on our balance sheets to borrow and spend.
Chapters 2-8 tell us how we have gotten ourselves into this mess at the KEP through such things as Consumption Binging, Public Employee Unions with their profligate demands and excess power, Political dishonesty, Ponzi Schemes like QE I and QEII, and finally Age Warfare and as he calls it Gerontocracy.
Chapter 8 attempts to tell why with all of us having much more disposable income than our parents we all feel like we don't have enough and thus the necessity for govt. to hide the costs of inter-generational debts.

The last 2 chapters give us some pointers on how to deal with our present situation before the worst things like 1979 interest rates or post WWi German inflation happen.
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Format: Hardcover
Tony Crescenzi's Beyond the Keynesian Endpoint is written exceptionally well, with engaging and elegant prose not usually found in books dealing with serious subject matter. His writing style enables readers to understand the very complex and profound implications of the sovereign debt crisis. The book provides a wealth of information and insight about how the developed world got into its current situation, doing so in ways that will surprise many readers because of its focus beyond the world of finance and into the world of behavioral economics. For example, Crescenzi focuses on the many psychological and sociological forces that compel people and nations to spend and borrow money. These are powerful influences not to be overlooked yet they often are. There is also an important chapter and discussions throughout the book on the investment implications of the current situation, and a very important insight on the role that demographics (in particular "Gerontocracy" a chapter in Crescenzi's book) are playing in the current drama.

Crescenzi provides important perspective on the role that government should play in society. In particular, Crescenzi shows how government spending went amok and how politicians abused basic Keynesian principles for self-aggrandizement, to forward their own agendas. Crescenzi illuminates this unfortunate misuse of power and elegantly lays out a prescription for the role of government in society. One way he does this is by contrasting the suffering of people during the Great Depression to the "suffering" that many in Europe are protesting against, amid today's era of deleveraging.
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Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
"In many countries, there will be little or no integration between the Keynesian and Austrian schools of thinking because the Keynesian camp will be intransigent. The implementation of austerity measures in these countries will be challenging and painful. For years these countries made social promises to their citizens that have become too burdensome to keep. Yet the citizens of these nations will be unwilling to wean themselves from the familiar and comforting hand of government for the free market's invisible hand.

As a result, these countries will see their economies languish because the Keynesian Endpoint means it will be impossible for them to raise money to support their social contracts and efforts to use debt to stimulate economic activity. In these cases, social unrest, income inequality, currency devaluations, debt restructurings, high unemployment, accelerated inflation, high real interest rates, and low investment returns will be key features. In short, the standard of living in these countries will decline." page_28
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Format: Hardcover Vine Customer Review of Free Product ( What's this? )
During the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes, argued that the economy could be stimulated through government spending. The initial stimulation, he argued, would result in more growth in the general economy, which in turn would stimulate more production and investment involving still more income and spending and so forth. The Keynesian Endpoint is defined as the point where there are no private or public sector balance sheets left to fuel economic activity and rescue the world's financial system. According to Tony Crescenzi, the USA is now at that point; this means, there can be no more fiscal illusions, consumption binges, or Ponzi schemes.

Crescenzi packs his analysis full of facts, figures, analogies and human behavior. There's a lot in this book for any serious student of finance and economics to ponder and learn. The copy I read was labeled Draft Manuscript. So, here are a few suggestions. First, Keyne's General Theory encompasses a lot of issues. Somewhere early in the book, be specific about the part of Keynesian Economics you are challenging. This (straw-man) will help us better understand why it no longer applies. Second, if your premise is correct---no one will buy our debt---then, treasury bill rates should be sky high. So, tell us why they are so low. The chapter on Investment implications has a road map that is buried in a small print chart. This is really an elegant and helpful analysis that should be rewritten and incorporated into the body of the chapter. Third, we all know that human psychology is an important part of the economic puzzle. But, including a discussion of mirror neurons in macaque monkeys, a sketch of the brain's limbic system, and the Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs pyramid should be saved for a night school lecture. Finally, mention Paul Krugman by name. He can take it.
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