Enter your mobile number or email address below and we'll send you a link to download the free Kindle App. Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required.
To get the free app, enter your mobile phone number.
Other Sellers on Amazon
+ $3.99 shipping
+ $3.99 shipping
The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto) Paperback – May 11, 2010
|New from||Used from|
"Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress"
Is the world really falling apart? Is the ideal of progress obsolete? Cognitive scientist and public intellectual Steven Pinker urges us to step back from the gory headlines and prophecies of doom, and instead, follow the data: In seventy-five jaw-dropping graphs, Pinker shows that life, health, prosperity, safety, peace, knowledge, and happiness are on the rise. Learn more
Frequently bought together
Customers who bought this item also bought
Customers who viewed this item also viewed
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ
Praise for The Black Swan
“[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London)
“A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail
“Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times
“The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate
“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal
“Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times
“Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review
About the Author
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. He spent nearly two decades as a businessman and quantitative trader before becoming a full-time philosophical essayist and academic researcher in 2006. Although he spends most of his time in the intense seclusion of his study, or as a flâneur meditating in cafés, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is “decision making under opacity”—that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don’t understand.
Taleb’s books have been published in thirty-three languages.
From the Hardcover edition.
Top customer reviews
There was a problem filtering reviews right now. Please try again later.
Stylistically, it makes these great ideas a lot harder to grok than should be necessary. There are entirely fictional anecdotes illustrating important points. Or are they fictional? Who knows? Some paragraphs are so packed with meaning, I almost can’t figure out what they’re saying. We’re told the Fourth Quadrant is where the trouble lies, but don’t find out what the Fourth Quadrant is until an essay added on after the book proper (spoiler alert: it’s the set of phenomena not described by the bell shaped curve, with outcomes described by nonlinear properties and compiex interconnected feedback loops.)
It’s as if the author were relating how he himself came to these realizations over time. I would much rather read an account beginning with the ideas and what they mean, and then going into the theory and supporting evidence.
Still, the author is who he is, the book is what it is and there is literally nothing else like it. You need to read this book. It will reward whatever effort you invest to understand it.
And, as always, avoid the Fourth Quadrant.
I would have given this book one or two stars for its total lack of focus and extremely wordy writing style. But the author is also a undeniable genius and the book has high level intellectual analysis. I just wish the author had taken a pill to calm down his apparent attention deficit disorder (ADD).
The author slams the bell curve (standard statistical analysis) and the standard deviation. He calls them the Great Intellectual Fraud (GIF) precisely because the bell curve takes out the black swans of data. The black swan is an event which is far from probable, but is also far from impossible. Black swans are the extremities of data. Surprisingly, black swans show up far more in our daily lives than the regular statistical analysis would indicate.
So what do we learn from this? NO ONE can predict the future on anything with regularity. Expect the unexpected. Luck plays greater role in our lives than we think, especially when it comes to extremities (extreme wealth, extreme success, extreme failures etc). The information age has brought us even more extremities. If you are not ultratalented and knowledgeable of your craft, then stick to a non-scalable (paid by the hour) pay rate.