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Blood Year: The Unraveling of Western Counterterrorism 1st Edition
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David Kilcullen was one of the architects of America's strategy in the late phases of the second Gulf War, and he has also spent time in Afghanistan and other hotspots. In Blood Year, he provides a wide-angle view of the current situation in the Middle East and analyzes how America and the West ended up in such dire circumstances. Kilcullen lays much of the blame on Bush's initial decision to invade Iraq (which had negative secondary effects in Afghanistan), but also takes Obama to task for simply withdrawing and adopting a "leading from behind" strategy. As events have proven, Kilcullen contends, withdrawal was a fundamentally misguided plan. The U.S. had uncorked the genie, and it had a responsibility to at least attempt to keep it under control. Instead, the U.S. is at a point where administration officials state that the losses of Ramadi and Palmyra are manageable setbacks. Kilcullen argues that the U.S. needs to re-engage in the region, whether it wants to or not, because it is largely responsible for the situation that is now unfolding. Blood Year is an essential read for anyone interested in understanding not only why the region that the U.S. invaded a dozen years ago has collapsed into utter chaos, but also what the U.S. can do to alleviate the grim situation.
- ISBN-109780190600549
- ISBN-13978-0190600549
- Edition1st
- PublisherOxford University Press
- Publication dateMarch 8, 2016
- LanguageEnglish
- Dimensions8.2 x 1.2 x 5.8 inches
- Print length312 pages
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- ASIN : 0190600543
- Publisher : Oxford University Press; 1st edition (March 8, 2016)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 312 pages
- ISBN-10 : 9780190600549
- ISBN-13 : 978-0190600549
- Item Weight : 1.05 pounds
- Dimensions : 8.2 x 1.2 x 5.8 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #1,469,595 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #1,773 in National & International Security (Books)
- #1,943 in Middle Eastern Politics
- #5,790 in History & Theory of Politics
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About the author

David Kilcullen is the award-winning author of Accidental Guerrilla (2009) and Counterinsurgency (2010) and now Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla (2013).
His newest book takes us away from the remote, rural guerrilla warfare of Afghanistan, and into the marginalized slums and complex security threats of the world's coastal cities. Scrutinizing major environmental trends -- population growth, coastal urbanization, and increasing digital connectivity-- he projects a future of feral cities, urban systems under stress, and increasing overlaps between crime and war, internal and external threats, and the real and virtual worlds.
Dave is the Chief Executive Officer of Caerus Associates a strategic research and design firm that specializes in innovative, often counter-intuitive solutions to the world's hardest problems: economic development, violent conflict, humanitarian assistance, energy shortages and climate change. He is an advisor to NATO, and a consultant to the US and allied governments, international institutions, private sector companies and non-profit organizations seeking to make a difference in conflict and post-conflict environments and the developing world.
Before founding Caerus, Dave served 24 years as a soldier, diplomat and policy advisor for the Australian and United States governments. He was Special Advisor to the Secretary of State from 2007-2009 and Senior Advisor to General David Petraeus in Iraq in 2007. He has provided advice at the highest levels of the Bush and Obama administrations, and has worked in peace and stability operations, humanitarian relief and counterinsurgency environments in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, South Asia and Africa. He is a well-known author, teacher and consultant, advising the U.S. and allied governments, international organizations, NGOs and the private sector.
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First and foremost, Blood Year is a 'mea culpa' from a policy insider who, as much as any other single figure, helped craft US counterterrorism policy from 2005 onward. Kilcullen's "Disaggregation Theory" served as a critical corrective to US policy which had up until its formulation sought to tie the world's jihadists together under the single umbrella of terrorist, magnifying the threat rather than diminishing or defeating it. Yet as Kilcullen is the first to admit, this strategic framework also served to focus the US too closely on Al-Qaeda Central in Pakistan (especially after the start of the Obama Administration in 2009), and ignored the rise of al-Qaeda's erstwhile junior affiliate in Iraq. This, combined with the US invasion of Iraq (which Kilcullen describes as the worst strategic blunder since Hitler's 1940 invasion of the USSR) set the stage for disaster. Kilcullen goes on to chronicle how, with US forces out of Iraq and no longer applying pressure to Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maliki to maintain an inclusive government, Iraq began a swift descent into sectarian civil war, as well as the rise of ISIS from the remnants of Al-Qaeda in Iraq combined with former Ba'athist officers and Sunni tribes disenfranchised by Maliki's increasingly pro-Shi'a policies.
The result is a swift, incisive read that stands out as the best yet written on the rise of ISIS.
David Kilcullen authority on the Middle East is known all over. He has been an adviser to both General Petraeus during the surge, Secretary Rice, to name just a few. He explains in the book the surge. Then he goes to explain how we got from the surge to the present trouble with ISIS. Through that you can see ISIS was a product of a political situation. So even if the west kills all of ISIS, which they are doing quite well right now there is an underlying problem. That problem will create new messes after ISIS is gone if it isn't dealt with. He gives you great detail not listed anywhere else to prove his points. He analysis covers both Iraq and Syria. Anymore you can't discuss one without the other.
A must for sure for any government official.
His view of war is that of a military man, yet he is smart enough to know that that doesn't work too well when the wars in question are being lost. He faults both Bush and Obama for their policies and why not? Both have been on the low side of average as US presidents go. Should we expect more from Trump or Clinton?
The book shines when he writes about the details of war. He has an organised mind and converts the fog of war into clear positions and actions that are easy to understand and that one relate to. One can see why those in power would consult him.
He recognises that there are a few short-comings in the way that these wars have been conducted, mostly by the USA. He does not however mention the complete absence of any political strategy that would enable them to be fought and won in a vaguely coherent manner. His answer to the question, "Where to now?" is disappointing but I suspect he is holding back. Why tell ISIS the winning move?
He advocates more and better warfare, but I have my doubts and I suspect he does to. When you are pruning your bush into the shape of an aircraft and it all goes wrong, it is often better to tryagain next spring.
I have reviewed this book with a querulous tone. It is worth reading, but I never got over the feeling that Kilcullen was writing to please a particular audience, but that the facts didn't serve.






