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Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley and SAS Business Series) Hardcover – January 5, 2016
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From the Inside Flap
In Business Forecasting, editors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo have assembled in one comprehensive resource the most influential studies and writings in applied forecasting. The expert contributors focus on recent discoveries and reveal new methods and approaches in forecasting as well as touch on many controversial topics. Throughout the book, the authors emphasize the fact that enlightened forecasting management (not just fancy new algorithms) is the best way to improve forecasting practice. This valuable collection gives forecast analysts, demand planners, and anyone involved in the forecasting process a practical and thought-provoking guide for forecast modeling and process improvement.
Designed to be practical, Business Forecasting explores the fundamental issues of forecasting and contains approaches for avoiding errors, methods for obtaining valid benchmarks, and shows how to use forecasting to steer business on the right course. The authors include information on methods of statistical forecasting and reveal how to select a statistical forecasting level and enhance forecasting by using the data mining tactic. In addition, the text puts the spotlight on performance evaluation and reporting and offers suggestions for tracking forecast accuracy and applying the use of scaled errors in addition to percentage errors in order to monitor forecasting accuracy. The text also contains a thorough review of the overall forecasting process and information on the inevitable politics involved in business forecasting.
To help hone forecasting skills, this vital resource covers a wide range of essential tools and topics such as employing accuracy metrics, applying quality assessments, modeling problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. The authors also review typically overlooked issues including uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as offer an examination of emerging areas like forecast value added analysis.
Business Forecasting is your hands-on guide to the latest developments in the field and contains an array of tools that can enable better processes and improved results.
From the Back Cover
Praise for BUSINESS FORECASTING
"This book is the survivor's guide for business forecasters. It covers a wide range of need-to-know topics from 'what is demand' to 'why should I trust your forecast.'"
Scott Roy, Collaboration Planning Manager, Wells Enterprises Inc.
"This is a tremendous compilation from some of the best forecasting analytics and business minds of today. A reference that should be on the shelf of anyone whose job is to develop forecasts."
Jim Ferris, Director of Supply Chain Analytics, Clarkston Consulting
"Finally, a book tailored to business forecasting that is comprehensive for everything from data gathering to the art and politics of explaining why we are wrong!"
Eric Wilson, Director, Demand Planning and S&OP, Tempur Sealy International
"In spite of my many years in forecasting and planning, the reading was so captivating that I could not stop before it was over. Absolutely a 'must-read' for every person working in business forecasting."
Igor Gusakov, Consulting Director, Goodsforecast
"This book is a wonderful compendium of demand planning and S&OP insights drawn from some of the best minds and practitioners in the industry."
Patrick Bower, Senior Director, Global Supply Chain Planning & Customer Service, Combe Incorporated
"The editors do an excellent job of introducing a broad set of topics critical for deploying and maintaining a successful forecasting process within an organization."
Sam Iosevich, Managing Principal, Prognos
"I would definitely recommend this reader as a key resource for those looking to learn more or to have knowledge at their fingertips for that moment when they need a refresher."
Curtis Brewer, Forecasting Manager, Bayer CropScience
"This terrific compilation of writingsfrom virtually all of the big names in the forecasting communityproves that innovation in forecasting is vibrant."
Rob Stevens, Vice President, First Analytics
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Top customer reviews
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Articles are usually short and well written. While they allow a good overview of the discussed topic, several references are provided to deep dive when needed. For a few topics, more than one article is available. The reader gets various points of view, making the book more comprehensive. Only in the performance evaluation section, the introduction to some articles are redundant. While a few articles are to be read as food for thought, most of them are directly usable in your daily forecasting activities.
While all the book is valuable to me, the section on process and politics of forecasting is definitely the one with the most added value for the practitioner. The book only contains published material. The question of its relevance is to be asked. For newcomers in the field of forecasting, as well as people without subscription to magazines such as Foresight, the book is a must-have. For the others, while it is still nice to have such a compilation in one place, the book added value is lower. Let’s be honest however: there is no such comprehensive and up-to-date gathering of business forecasting articles out there. Do not hesitate too much and just go for it, you won’t be disappointed.