- Series: Contemporary American Politics (Book 1)
- Paperback: 192 pages
- Publisher: SAGE Publications, Inc (June 18, 1996)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 0803973454
- ISBN-13: 978-0803973459
- Product Dimensions: 6 x 0.5 x 9 inches
- Shipping Weight: 12.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
- Average Customer Review: 1 customer review
- Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,942,008 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Enter your mobile number or email address below and we'll send you a link to download the free Kindle App. Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required.
To get the free app, enter your mobile phone number.
Do Campaigns Matter? (Contemporary American Politics)
Use the Amazon App to scan ISBNs and compare prices.
Fulfillment by Amazon (FBA) is a service we offer sellers that lets them store their products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and we directly pack, ship, and provide customer service for these products. Something we hope you'll especially enjoy: FBA items qualify for FREE Shipping and Amazon Prime.
If you're a seller, Fulfillment by Amazon can help you increase your sales. We invite you to learn more about Fulfillment by Amazon .
"Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress"
Is the world really falling apart? Is the ideal of progress obsolete? Cognitive scientist and public intellectual Steven Pinker urges us to step back from the gory headlines and prophecies of doom, and instead, follow the data: In seventy-five jaw-dropping graphs, Pinker shows that life, health, prosperity, safety, peace, knowledge, and happiness are on the rise. Learn more
Frequently bought together
Customers who bought this item also bought
Top customer reviews
There was a problem filtering reviews right now. Please try again later.
The answer is yes and no. First, it is important to understand Holbrook's notion of equilibrium. Holbrook first uses a linear model to predict the winner of a presidential election based on data from no later than the month of May. His regression uses three variables: popularity (basically a preview of the November election), aggregate personal finances, and party tenure. This model is generally very accurate, accounting for roughly 84 percent of the data set's variability. The proportion of total vote a candidate receives as predicted by the model is that candidate's equilibrium. Since Holbrook's vote share regression is so indicative of the actual election outcome (and it is important to remember that it is based on data from no later than May of each election year) it is fairly obvious that there is actually something like "equilibrium" at play in nature.
The rest of the book investigates two key campaign events: the party convention and the debates. Holbrook's finding is that if a candidate's popularity is significantly greater than his estimated equilibrium, then that candidate will not receive a significant "bump" in the polls. However, if a candidate's popularity is significantly lower than her estimated equilibrium, then she will likely receive a significant bump in the polls. However, these bumps tend to smooth out as we step backward and look at the bigger picture: as Holbrook concludes, "although campaigns do matter and are relevant determinants of candidate support, national conditions carry more weight in determining the eventual outcome." However, if the estimated equilibrium indicates that each candidate (supposing a two party race) should expect roughly 50 percent of the electorate's support, then campaigns can make a huge difference if done right.