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Catastrophe: Risk and Response

by
Richard A. Posner (Author)
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Richard A. Posner (Author)
3.6 out of 5 stars 11 customer reviews
ISBN-13: 978-0195306477
ISBN-10: 0195306473
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Product Details

  • Paperback: 336 pages
  • Publisher: Oxford University Press (December 8, 2005)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0195306473
  • ISBN-13: 978-0195306477
  • Product Dimensions: 8.7 x 0.9 x 5.6 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 14.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 3.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (11 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #406,758 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5 starsA Measured Approach to the Apocalypse
By John Thorne on November 13, 2004
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
I'm a big fan of the judge's books, but this one differs from the prior books in the breadth and gravity of its topic: avoiding extinction.

The book has a gripping description of several such threats -- asteroids, bioterrorists, nuclear meltdown ("strangelets"), sudden global warming, loss of biodiversity. The book is worth buying for the description alone.

The core problem in dealing with these extinction threats is the need to incur large present costs for only speculative future benefits, where the beneficiaries of today's investments will be unknown to anyone living today. Democracies, run by politicians who get voted into office promising benefits to the current voters, can't make such farsighted investments for the benefit of people not yet living (or more precisely, not yet voting).

The best line in the book (near the beginning, so I don't think I'm spoiling it) is that there are probably many billions of stars with planets around them capable of supporting life. Life therefore probably originated independently on many millions of those planets, many of them probably much earlier than here on Earth. So why haven't we been contacted by any of the earlier, presumably more advanced other civilizations?
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4.0 out of 5 starsAsks Important Questions, Needs Better Answers
By Peter McCluskey on January 19, 2005
Format: Hardcover
This book does a very good job of arguing that humans are doing an inadequate job of minimizing the expected harm associated with improbable but major disasters such as asteroid strikes and sudden climate changes. He provides a rather thorough and unbiased summary of civilization-threatening risks, and a good set of references to the relevant literature.

I am disappointed that he gave little attention to the risks of AI. Probably his reason is that his expertise in law and economics will do little to address what is more of an engineering problem that is unlikely to be solved by better laws.

I suspect he's overly concerned about biodiversity loss. He tries to justify his concern by noting risks to our food chain that seem to depend on our food supply being less diverse than it is.

His solutions do little to fix the bad incentives which have prevented adequate preparations. The closest he comes to fixing them is his proposal for a center for catastrophic-risk assessment and response, which would presumably have some incentive to convince people of risks in order to justify its existence.

His criticisms of information markets (aka idea futures) ignore the best arguments on this subject. He attacks the straw man of using them to predict particular terrorist attacks, and ignores possibilities such as using them to predict whether invading Iraq would reduce or increase deaths due to terrorism over many years. And his claim that scientists need no monetary incentives naively ignores their bias to dismiss concerns about harm resulting from their research (bias which he notes elsewhere as a cause of recklessness).Read more ›
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3.0 out of 5 starsUnderwhelming for Posner
By HH on January 23, 2016
Format: Paperback
Description and analysis of the catastrophic risks constitute at once the centerpiece and the main strength of the book. Judge Posner helps the reader surmount -- at least conceptually -- the difficult valuation problems posed by catastrophic risks by applying helpful techniques to facilitate the relevant cost-benefit analysis. The book's central problem, however, is that it attempts to use an exposition of relatively piecemeal risks as a justification for fundamental changes in legal institutions, changes that would be better justified by proof of systemic problems in those institutions themselves. This flaw is likely a byproduct of Posner's attempt to have the book serve the divergent ends of detailing and expounding upon specific, diverse risks, on the one hand, and making general policy recommendations, on the other; but it's an astonishing flaw in light of Posner's own respect and preference for empirical support wherever possible. Posner's final analysis obscures the possibility that the efficient solution to failures to spend enough to prevent or mitigate certain catastrophes may be simply to spend more money within existing frameworks, rather than to revamp U.S. legal procedure, education, and institutions. Since the book's stated focus is only these catastrophes (p. 6), it fails to rule out more conservative solutions, casting some of Posner's broader suggested reforms in a speculative light.
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3.0 out of 5 starsProliferation of hazardous new technology threatens humankind
By Willard Wells on May 2, 2013
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
Wow, what a polymath! Posner is judge of the US Court of Appeals, 7th circuit. But on top of all that law he has learned science fairly well including probability theory and evolutionary biology. He explains some human behavior in terms of instincts we evolved by the Darwinian process, an argument you rarely see. But this doesn't make a great book. Posner sees no need to write his judicial opinions in an entertaining style because interested parties will read them anyhow. He seems not to realize that writing popular books is a different game; people are far less motivated to read them. Oxford press did its part to discourage sales: the font is small and somewhat faint; words are divided at the ends of lines between the second and third letters; there are no pictures even though the topic cries out for them.

Posner chose four hazards to track throughout the book, and two of those choices are unfortunate. The first is an asteroid strike. The risk of that is miniscule simply because we have such a long history of surviving it. Humanity has not been seriously at risk for 70,000 years. (Genetics tells us that humanity was reduced to a small population about that time thus reducing genetic diversity.) So if the next natural catastrophe occurs in the next 100 years, that means that we are now living in the last 1/700 of the interval between them, and the probability of that is only about 1/700. By contrast, we are living with man-made hazards after only a decade or so of adaptation.

Posner makes a plea for various reforms to prevent catastrophe: international agencies, safety reviews of proposed science projects, new police powers, and so on. Posner never mentions that a major collapse of civilization would take out all the major threats to our species' survival.Read more ›
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Published on March 4, 2007 by JBS
3.0 out of 5 starsOK Survey, but focused for attorneys & politicos

I purchased the book looking for interesting insights on catastrophes. I have to say I did not expand my knowledge of catastrophes much by reading the book. Read more

Published on December 23, 2006 by Jasper Walker
3.0 out of 5 starsA farrago of fear and frustration

The cliche of fearing only those who are afraid surely holds true for this book. Posner, a judge, wants lawyers to sit in judgement of which research should go forward and which... Read more

Published on July 1, 2005 by Stephen A. Haines
5.0 out of 5 stars"Preparing" For The Future

Looking out for future risk into the future. For example, asteroids pose a long-term risk hundreds and thousands of years into the future. Read more

Published on March 20, 2005 by G. Reid
4.0 out of 5 starsNot a Dog in these Catastrophes

Great Book, thoughtful and somewhat idiosyncratic analysis of how we should think about and respond to low probability but very large consequence events. Read more

Published on February 5, 2005 by R. C. Jennings

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