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Richard A. Posner
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Catastrophe: Risk and Response

by Richard A. Posner (Author)
3.7 3.7 out of 5 stars 15 ratings
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Catastrophic risks are much greater than is commonly appreciated. Collision with an asteroid, runaway global warming, voraciously replicating nanomachines, a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists, and a world-ending accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, are among the possible extinction events that are sufficiently likely to warrant careful study. How should we respond to events that, for a variety of psychological and cultural reasons, we find it hard to wrap our minds around? Posner argues that realism about science and scientists, innovative applications of cost-benefit analysis, a scientifically literate legal profession, unprecedented international cooperation, and a pragmatic attitude toward civil liberties are among the keys to coping effectively with the catastrophic risks.
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  1. ISBN-10
    0195306473
  2. ISBN-13
    978-0195306477
  3. Publisher
    Oxford University Press
  4. Publication date
    December 8, 2005
  5. Language
    English
  6. Dimensions
    8.86 x 6.06 x 0.85 inches
  7. Print length
    336 pages
  8. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

Review

"We would be well advised to... take the message of this book seriously. We ignore it at (a small risk of) our (very great) peril."--Peter Singer, The New York Times Book Review

"[Posner] addresses what can be done to improve the assessment of...catastrophic risks and of the possible responses to them. [Catastrophe] examines a number of possible institutional reforms at the law-science interface that may aid in coping with [these] risks."--Journal of Economic Literature

"Catastrophe is worth the price of the book simply for Posner's lively and readable summary of the apocalyptic dystopias that serious scientists judge to be possible."-- Graham Allison, The Washington Post Book World

"Interesting and provocative...it is well worth reading."--The Federal Lawyer

"A fine lawyerly analysis.... Posner's perspective, very different from those held by most scientists, is a welcome addition to considerations of catastrophic risks."--Science

"Will likely spark controversy.... subtle insights...[and] thoughtful analysis."--Publishers Weekly

"Once again, Judge Posner has added to our cultural dialogue in a useful and interesting way."--Law and Politics Book Review

"A valuable contribution to the study of risk control and management."--Natural Resources Journal

Book Description

A thoughtful look at the risks posed by such mega-catastrophes as "planet killer" asteroids, irreversible global warming, an accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, and bioterrorism, among others.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Oxford University Press (December 8, 2005)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 336 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0195306473
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0195306477
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 15.2 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 8.86 x 6.06 x 0.85 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    3.7 3.7 out of 5 stars 15 ratings

About the author

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Richard A. Posner

Richard A. Posner

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Richard A. Posner is a judge of the U.S. Court Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, and a senior lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School. He is the author of numerous books, including Overcoming Law, a New York Times Book Review editors' choices for best book of 1995 and An Affair of State: The Investigation, Impeachment, and Trial of President Clinton, one of Times' choices for Best Book of the Year in 1999 and a Los Angeles Times Book Prize Finalist, 2000.

Customer reviews

3.7 out of 5 stars
3.7 out of 5
15 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

John Thorne
5.0 out of 5 stars A Measured Approach to the Apocalypse
Reviewed in the United States on November 13, 2004
Verified Purchase
I'm a big fan of the judge's books, but this one differs from the prior books in the breadth and gravity of its topic: avoiding extinction.

The book has a gripping description of several such threats -- asteroids, bioterrorists, nuclear meltdown ("strangelets"), sudden global warming, loss of biodiversity. The book is worth buying for the description alone.

The core problem in dealing with these extinction threats is the need to incur large present costs for only speculative future benefits, where the beneficiaries of today's investments will be unknown to anyone living today. Democracies, run by politicians who get voted into office promising benefits to the current voters, can't make such farsighted investments for the benefit of people not yet living (or more precisely, not yet voting).

The best line in the book (near the beginning, so I don't think I'm spoiling it) is that there are probably many billions of stars with planets around them capable of supporting life. Life therefore probably originated independently on many millions of those planets, many of them probably much earlier than here on Earth. So why haven't we been contacted by any of the earlier, presumably more advanced other civilizations?
18 people found this helpful
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Willard Wells
3.0 out of 5 stars Proliferation of hazardous new technology threatens humankind
Reviewed in the United States on May 2, 2013
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Wow, what a polymath! Posner is judge of the US Court of Appeals, 7th circuit. But on top of all that law he has learned science fairly well including probability theory and evolutionary biology. He explains some human behavior in terms of instincts we evolved by the Darwinian process, an argument you rarely see. But this doesn't make a great book. Posner sees no need to write his judicial opinions in an entertaining style because interested parties will read them anyhow. He seems not to realize that writing popular books is a different game; people are far less motivated to read them. Oxford press did its part to discourage sales: the font is small and somewhat faint; words are divided at the ends of lines between the second and third letters; there are no pictures even though the topic cries out for them.

Posner chose four hazards to track throughout the book, and two of those choices are unfortunate. The first is an asteroid strike. The risk of that is miniscule simply because we have such a long history of surviving it. Humanity has not been seriously at risk for 70,000 years. (Genetics tells us that humanity was reduced to a small population about that time thus reducing genetic diversity.) So if the next natural catastrophe occurs in the next 100 years, that means that we are now living in the last 1/700 of the interval between them, and the probability of that is only about 1/700. By contrast, we are living with man-made hazards after only a decade or so of adaptation.

Posner makes a plea for various reforms to prevent catastrophe: international agencies, safety reviews of proposed science projects, new police powers, and so on. Posner never mentions that a major collapse of civilization would take out all the major threats to our species' survival. The aftermath would be a long period of safety for people who are wiser for the experience. So there's a paradox: measures that prevent catastrophe also jeopardize our species. I prefer to look outside the box and save Homo sapiens an entirely different way. Form survival colonies with about a 100 people (a viable breeding stock) and build redoubts in remote places to ride out as many different threats as you can. Wealthy people are already buying luxury apartments in abandoned missile silos and similar places. You can sign up as a candidate for a survival colony at the website of the Lifeboat Foundation.
2 people found this helpful
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R. C. Jennings
4.0 out of 5 stars Not a Dog in these Catastrophes
Reviewed in the United States on February 5, 2005
Verified Purchase
Great Book, thoughtful and somewhat idiosyncratic analysis of how we should think about and respond to low probability but very large consequence events.

Works very well paired up with Robert Shillers book "Macro Markets"
2 people found this helpful
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JBS
5.0 out of 5 stars The Greatest Problems of the 21st Century...Solved!
Reviewed in the United States on March 5, 2007
With the emerging trends in healthcare, many of today's young children will be alive in 2100. This would be a remarkable achievement.

Then again, sometime in the next 100 years perhaps the entire human race including all today's children will die violent deaths.

In Catastrophe, US Appeals Court Judge Richard Posner shows that humanity enters the 21st century with a greater chance of annihilation than at any time in human history. Mankind faces new perils that our institutions are not addressing.

Posner does not just warn of dangers. He proposes solutions we can enact today that would reduce risk and improve world security for the next 100 years.

His facts are well researched; his analysis is well thought out. Unfortunately, his writing is heavy. He uses large amounts of hard science, legal theory, and economic analysis.

His major theme is that rapid scientific progress has created perils that our leaders are not addressing.

In a short book, he addresses a large number of doomsday scenarios that would otherwise require years of study.

None of the risks he discusses are likely to happen this year or in any particular year. However, as a group they pose a disturbing risk when looked at over a hundred years.

He collects these horrific events into four groups

1) Natural disasters - This includes asteroids striking the earth, pandemic disease, and huge volcanoes and earthquakes. These have always been around and have caused mass destruction in the past.

The other risks are new to the 21st century.

2) Perils caused by Economic Growth - This includes global warming, resource depletion, loss of biodiversity, and population growth. Posner looks critically at each.

3) Scientific Accidents - These include accidents with robots, artificial intelligence, robotic war machines, genetically modified crops, nanotechnology, and particle accelerators, These all sound like science fiction but Posner uses credible evidence to paint scenarios on how each could destroy the entire human race.

4) Intentional catastrophes - These include nuclear war, biological terror, cyber terror, surveillance, concealment, and encryption. His discussion of biological terror is especially disturbing. He cites evidence that nations, terrorist groups, or even crazed Unabomber type individuals may soon be able to create life forms that can kill billions of people.

This is frightening but Posner does not stop here. He proposes solutions we can work on today to reduce the risk of each catastrophe.

His solutions attempt to reduce each hazard while impairing our current standard of living as little as possible. Each proposal is painful and will disturb many people.

1) Fiscal solutions - He proposes increasing taxes and spending on science to address natural disasters and global warming. He uses economic tools to show that our current policies are inadequate to address these risks. His solutions will lead to a reduced standard of living for all of us.

2) Regulatory solutions -These include an international EPA, specialized science courts, a center for catastrophic risk assessment and response, an international bio-weaponry agency, and catastrophic risk review of new projects. They require international cooperation to work. These proposals will be controversial because they would require national governments like the US, Russia, and China to obey international agencies like the UN. How likely is this?

3) Reduction of civil liberties - As a judge, Posner is careful to defend the US tradition of human rights. However he questions whether the civil liberties of Western societies can continue.

With nuclear or bio-terror, we cannot afford to allow a single mistake. One crazed person can kill millions or perhaps all of us. Given this threat, should we restrict the right of unstable persons to learn dangerous technologies? Can we extend a right to privacy to people with the know how to develop viruses that can kill the entire human race? Should we profile people from certain areas of the world? Does free speech allow us to publish how to make nuclear weapons? Is there a role for torture and threats to families? Being a judge, he explains these ideas clearly and soberly.

4) Education - Posner's solutions are weakest in this areas. He does not trust generalist judges to adjudicate any case involving scientific matters but proposes a special court with judges trained in science.

In an early chapter he shows how the scientific ignorance of some people and the obsession with scientific progress of others work together to make these risks worse. However, he does not recommend improved science education for Presidents, legislators, journalists, or the general public--only judges.

Most important he does not recommend changing science education to emphasize the dangers and ethical responsibilities of scientists. Is it not important for everyone trained in science to understand the danger of what they could achieve and the responsibility to abide by ethical standards? Posner does not mention this.

In a short book, Judge Posner has done an outstanding service in explaining the most important issues confronting us in the 21st century and how they can be solved. However, his ideas should be viewed as intial ideas to stir a public debate not as final solutions. For our children's sake, I encourage everyone to do the heavy research needed to read the book and become active in working toward the best solutions.
3 people found this helpful
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