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China's Future 1st Edition

by David Shambaugh (Author)
4.1 4.1 out of 5 stars 140 ratings
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China's future is arguably the most consequential question in global affairs. Having enjoyed unprecedented levels of growth, China is at a critical juncture in the development of its economy, society, polity, national security, and international relations. The direction the nation takes at this turning point will determine whether it stalls or continues to develop and prosper.

Will China be successful in implementing a new wave of transformational reforms that could last decades and make it the world's leading superpower? Or will its leaders shy away from the drastic changes required because the regime's power is at risk? If so, will that lead to prolonged stagnation or even regime collapse? Might China move down a more liberal or even democratic path? Or will China instead emerge as a hard, authoritarian and aggressive superstate?

In this new book, David Shambaugh argues that these potential pathways are all possibilities - but they depend on key decisions yet to be made by China's leaders, different pressures from within Chinese society, as well as actions taken by other nations. Assessing these scenarios and their implications, he offers a thoughtful and clear study of China's future for all those seeking to understand the country's likely trajectory over the coming decade and beyond.

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  1. ISBN-10
    1509507140
  2. ISBN-13
    978-1509507146
  3. Edition
    1st
  4. Publisher
    Polity
  5. Publication date
    March 14, 2016
  6. Language
    English
  7. Dimensions
    5.4 x 0.75 x 8.3 inches
  8. Print length
    244 pages
  9. See all details
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Customer reviews

4.1 out of 5 stars
140 global ratings

Customers say

Customers find the book well worth reading, excellent, and interesting. They also appreciate the insights, sharp and deep analysis, and information about China's future. Readers describe the content as concise, clear, and explicit.

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ReadabilityInsightContent
11 customers mention "Readability"11 positive0 negative

Customers find the book well worth reading, excellent, and a quick read. They also say it's interesting with a strong American perspective.

"The book is easy to read, assuming you have somewhat more advanced knowledge about current situation in chineese politics and it's very recent past...." Read more

"It is a very good book. Has a lot of information about the problems with the Chinese economy...." Read more

"very good book. Author was a bit biased toward thinking that China must move to a more open posture both economically and politically...." Read more

"...Excellent work from D. Shambaugh, clear, explicit, down to the core." Read more

10 customers mention "Insight"10 positive0 negative

Customers find the book very insightful, timely, and provides a sharp and deep analysis about China's future. They say it has a lot of information about the problems with the country. Readers also mention the book is solid and easy to read.

"It is a very good book. Has a lot of information about the problems with the Chinese economy...." Read more

"...interpreting the underlying implications, this book provides a sharp and deep analysis about China's future...." Read more

"Very interesting book on understanding China." Read more

"Very insightful and timely. China is at a crossroads and may be taking the wrong turn." Read more

3 customers mention "Content"3 positive0 negative

Customers find the content concise, informative, and explicit.

"...Excellent work from D. Shambaugh, clear, explicit, down to the core." Read more

"Concise, Honest, Balanced, Represents a wealth of China insight." Read more

"Concise and very informative. Loved it." Read more

Top reviews from the United States

Filip
5.0 out of 5 stars Deep analysis easy to be read
Reviewed in the United States on January 3, 2017
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The book is easy to read, assuming you have somewhat more advanced knowledge about current situation in chineese politics and it's very recent past. It is a useful analysis of the future. I also liked that the nktes were coming after evwry chapter.
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Nancy B. Samuelson
4.0 out of 5 stars Serious look at the possible future of China
Reviewed in the United States on October 21, 2016
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It is a very good book. Has a lot of information about the problems with the Chinese economy. He points out that China is a partial power not a big power. Very worthwhile book.
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Michael A. Holt
5.0 out of 5 stars Will China adopt democracy and if so, would this really solve all of China's many serious problems?
Reviewed in the United States on March 26, 2016
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In this latest book by recognized China expert, David Shambaugh, the author likens China's future to a car approaching a roundabout where the driver faces several roads ahead. The problem is that the driver of the car already missed his exit a long time ago, and guard rails together with momentum continue to make it difficult to change its course. Still, David Shambaugh argues that there are four essential choices:

1. Hard Authoritarianism (the current path) ---> leading to Limited Reform, Stagnation, and Decline
2. Neo Totalitarianism ---> leading to Regression, Atrophy, and Collapse
3. Soft Authoritarianism ---> leading to Moderate Reform and Partial Transition
4. Semi-Democracy ---> leading to Successful Reform and Full Transition

He explains that the new leaders of the CCP acknowledged a long list of challenges facing China when they first took the reins of the Party, but set out an ambitious agenda for reform that was described at length shortly after the Third Plenum convened in November 2013. Sadly, more than two years later there has been very little progress made toward achieving these goals requiring economic, social, and political reforms. In fact, while some progress has been made in terms of economic reforms, the new CCP leadership has made a U-turn in terms of the political reforms that are necessary to facilitate the level of economic reform necessary in order for China to avoid "the Middle Income Trap" that has plagued so many other countries that similarly experienced initial periods of rapid economic growth.

But, despite the fact that China's debt has grown to a level equal to three times its GDP and is growing at twice the rate of its GDP if GDP is, in fact, growing at close to 7%, David Shambaugh argues that it's still possible for the CCP to right the ship if it can somehow overcome fierce resistance from entrenched interests toward the various reforms that threaten their privileged positions of power. Toward that end, he examines the implications for each of the four paths identified above and the probability of each.

This analysis makes a convincing case that only the last two paths, if achieved in sequence--i.e., a transition from Hard Authoritarianism to Soft Authoritarianism and then to Semi-Democracy--are likely to enable China to achieve continued economic development. This view echoes the conceptual framework developed by W. W. Rostow decades ago in which it is believed that economic development can be divided into five stages, and that economic activity becomes much more diffuse as economies develop, so achieving the final stages of economic development require a transition away from centralized government control and decision-making, even though that facilitated rapid economic growth during earlier stages of economic development.

Still, it's not clear to me how adopting democracy can really cure all of China's ills, even those that plague existing democracies, such as excess debt. And, in order to avoid the Middle Income Trap, China must also spur innovation throughout the country (not just within SOE's operating within a handful of industries deemed to be of strategic importance), fix its financial system that is controlled by the CCP and has also become a tangled mess, introduce greater competition and market forces throughout the economy, successfully implement a planned urbanization scheme, resolve the hukou dilemma, expand the service sector which, though growing rapidly, is still relatively small since debt-financed Fixed Asset investment Spending has grown to become such a large percentage of China's economy, increase household consumption, tackle corruption, clean up the environment, fully tap factor endowments (including natural resources that it must exploit abroad in order to satisfy its internal needs), and address the long laundry list of additional challenges identified in the Third Plenum documents and a World Bank/State Council "China 2030" report.

But, David Shambaugh concludes that a transition to Semi-Democracy is unlikely in the first place, so it seems as if this Chinese laundry list of problems is even more unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.
44 people found this helpful
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David
3.0 out of 5 stars Intriguing read but unproven thesis
Reviewed in the United States on February 7, 2019
Overall I found China’s Future to be an engaging read with a lot of useful information and analysis regarding China’s recent economic and social development.

That said, the book has a major flaw; it takes its central thesis as unimpeachable fact, rather than a conjecture in need of defense.

The key goal of China’s government over the next few decades is to disprove the notion that a country needs to liberalize to innovate and develop past middle income status. I’m not sure they’ll succeed, but very few people are prepared to rule out the possibility.

No serious work on the topic should take it as a given that a country must liberalize to become wealthy.
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Bill Murray
4.0 out of 5 stars very good book. Author was a bit biased toward thinking ...
Reviewed in the United States on May 30, 2016
Verified Purchase
very good book. Author was a bit biased toward thinking that China must move to a more open posture both economically and politically. His historical reference do not correlate well with the realities of the China situation. We have never had an economy with $4 trillion in foreign currency reserves. The Russian experiment was not equivalent to China.
One person found this helpful
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utuvien
5.0 out of 5 stars Sharp and deep analysis
Reviewed in the United States on August 14, 2016
Verified Purchase
This is absolutely written by a Chinese politics scholar who knows exactly what's going on. Compared with some researchers from top programs who analyze rhetoric from the authoritarian leaders without interpreting the underlying implications, this book provides a sharp and deep analysis about China's future. Unlike many other books that avoid a precise prediction after 300+ pages, this book gives its conclusion right at the beginning. A must read for anyone who wants to know real politics of the real China.
4 people found this helpful
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Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent work from D
Reviewed in the United States on December 7, 2016
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A must read to understand the challenges of this century and be aware of what is at stake. Excellent work from D. Shambaugh, clear, explicit, down to the core.
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Amazon Customer
4.0 out of 5 stars Good and quick read
Reviewed in the United States on December 18, 2016
Verified Purchase
Good and quick read. I lived in China for seven years and can vouch for a few of the things he says. Recommended.
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Top reviews from other countries

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Alice Chow
1.0 out of 5 stars weak
Reviewed in Canada on November 14, 2017
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weak
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Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 stars Highly recommend
Reviewed in India on January 20, 2017
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The author relies on the democratic peace theory when analysing Sino American relation however with president trump in the White House I'm not sure how much of it is still relevant..... perhaps the future predicted is more applicable to clinton's presidency
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putchees
4.0 out of 5 stars アメリカ人の中国観
Reviewed in Japan on April 12, 2017
Verified Purchase
薄い本なのですぐ読めました。内容は長年の中国ウォッチャーによる「中華人民共和国はこの後どんな軌道を辿るか？」。その可能性を「ソフト権威主義」「ハード権威主義」「ネオ全体主義」「疑似民主主義」の4つに分けて検討するというものです。議論は意外なほど悲観的で現行の「ハード権威主義」のまま進むだろうという見立てです。権威主義体制の元、市民社会も学術界も抑圧され、結局はイノベーションが起きないまま、「中所得国の罠」にかかって衰えていくのではないか、というのです。たいへん面白いのですが、日本人読者として感じるのは著者はやはり（リベラル民主主義こそが繁栄に不可欠だと考える）アメリカ人だな、ということです。ともあれ一読の価値ありです。
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Antoine Martin
3.0 out of 5 stars Exercice de synthèse sans grand éclat
Reviewed in France on August 31, 2016
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Dans la préface de ce livre, David Shambaugh affirme avoir consacré quelques semaines à sa rédaction, alors que ses précédents opus avaient nécessité un labeur de plusieurs années. L'on peut dire que cela se voit, puisque China's Future n'est guère plus qu'une synthèse actualisée de l'"état de la Chine" en 2016. Une synthèse dynamique, certes, puisque l'auteur prend le soin de décrire ce à quoi pourrait ressembler l'avenir social, économique et politique (variables expliquées) du pays en fonction de l'évolution de son gouvernement (semi-démocratie à la Singapour, néo-autoritarisme, libéralisation limitée ou statu quo - il s'agit de la variable explicative). Mais ceux qui suivent avec une certaine assiduité l'actualité chinoise ne doivent pas s'attendre à une soudaine illumination à la lecture de ces analyses, qui décevront ceux qui, comme moi, attendaient du grand théoricien de l'adaptabilité du PCC qu'il développe les arguments énoncés dans son récent article publié dans le Wall Street Journal et intitulé "The Coming Chinese Crackup". China's Future semble ainsi davantage adapté aux étudiants de Sciences Po ayant choisi "Contemporary Chinese Politics" comme option.
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Adrian J. Smith
5.0 out of 5 stars An academic, up to date, and insightful study of China's current trajectory
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on April 28, 2016
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Following on the heels of China Goes Global, Shambaugh provides an updated analysis of China's domestic and foreign policy trends and transformations over the previous years, and contends that China has several routes it can pursue, Hard Authoritarianism (the current trend since 2009), Soft Authoritarianism (the direction from 1998 to 2008), Neo-Totalitarianism or Semi Democracy.
Shambaugh considers semi democracy to be the most desirable, but also the least likely outcome, but contends that Hard Authoritarianism will lead to long term stagnation, and possible decline, and that Neo-Totalitarianism is obviously the worst route.
Shambaugh is not as bullish as other China authors (such as Martin Jacques) and is critical of the underlying faults in the economy, the lack of innovation, and perhaps the route of it, the nature of the educational system. Shambaugh asserts that China has to revive the political reform that was tentatively implemented between 1998 and 2008, or it will continue on a downward trajectory.
Shambaugh is quite critical of Xi Jinping, regarding him as most definitely not a liberal, and perhaps reckless in the scope and aggression with which he has implemented his anti corruption campaign. This in itself, could possibly be a costly error if it is extended too far upon the military.
As a regular reader of commentary on contemporary China, Shambaugh has provided some useful insight into the nature of Chinese governance that has been lacking in previous books, and sheds some interesting light on Zeng Qinghong, who Shambaugh considers to have been a reformer whose reforms were ultimately undermined.
A very good, up to date study of China, and a much more academic study than many out there. The book avoids the hyperbole associated with much study of China, and instead provides an academic and thoroughly researched study, but at the same time, thoroughly readable.
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