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Climate Uncertainty and Risk: Rethinking Our Response (Anthem Environment and Sustainability Initiative) Kindle Edition
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World leaders have made a forceful statement that climate change is the greatest challenge facing humanity in the 21st century. However, little progress has been made in implementing policies to address climate change. In Climate Uncertainty and Risk, eminent climate scientist Judith Curry shows how we can break this gridlock. This book helps us rethink the climate change problem, the risks we are facing and how we can respond to these challenges. Understanding the deep uncertainty surrounding the climate change problem helps us to better assess the risks. This book shows how uncertainty and disagreement can be part of the decision-making process. It provides a road map for formulating pragmatic solutions. Climate Uncertainty and Risk is essential reading for those concerned about the environment, professionals dealing with climate change and our national leaders.
- ISBN-13978-1785278167
- PublisherAnthem Press
- Publication dateJune 6, 2023
- LanguageEnglish
- File size2414 KB
Editorial Reviews
Review
“Judith A. Curry is one of the world’s leading scholars of climate change and a deep thinker about how science copes with uncertainty. In this refreshing and comprehensive book, she shows with meticulous care and great clarity that exaggerated claims about climate change made for political purposes are wide of the mark. Instead, she shows the way to a rational and practical discussion of this polarized topic.”―Matt Ridley, author of The Rational Optimist and How Innovation Works.
“With climate models running too hot by a factor of 2 for 30 years, with everything that used to be called a weather event now a portent of climate change, and with billions being invested against this as opposed to other more pressing world needs, Judith A. Curry provides us with a much-needed and convincing rethink.”―Michael Kelly, Emeritus Prince Philip Professor of Technology, University of Cambridge, UK.
“Judith A. Curry leverages her background in climate science, weather forecasting, and devising risk management strategies to present the climate policy debate we have never had. Her balanced, evidence-based, and multifaceted discussion leaves the reader ‘better informed as to the uncertainties and the various values in play’ in designing climate policy.”―Peter Hartley, George A. Peterkin Professor of Economics, Rice University, USA; MEECON Co-Director.
Judith Curry’s book Climate Uncertainty and Risk aims to provide a framework for understanding the climate change ‘debate’. She argues that the climate change problem and its solution have been oversimplified; that understanding uncertainty can help in better assessing the risks; and that uncertainty and disagreement can be part of the decision-making process. Curry’s book is divided into three parts. The first describes the climate change challenge. The second relates to the uncertainty of 21st century climate change, noting her emphasis on 21st century. The final section covers climate risk and response - Michael Muntisov & Greg Finlayson
“Climate Uncertainty and Risk” provides a balanced, fair assessment of the content and conclusions of the IPCC ARs. It compares and contrasts some ancient but mostly more recent climate conditions and events in making the case for a broader inclusion of past situations to better understand and simulate the climate future. The book includes a thoughtful look at climate change versus COVID-19 risk, especially relative to applying the “precautionary principle.” “Climate Uncertainty and Risk” is an essential contribution to understanding and mitigating climate change. Ms. Curry’s goal is to better inform the reader “as to the uncertainties and the various values in play” surrounding the judgments as to “whether warming is dangerous or whether urgent action to reduce CO2 emissions is needed.”―Anthony J. Sadar, The Washington Times, August 10, 2023
--This text refers to the hardcover edition.Book Description
How to break the gridlock surrounding the climate debate
--This text refers to the paperback edition.About the Author
Judith Curry is Professor Emerita of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, USA, and President of the Climate Forecast Applications Network.
--This text refers to the hardcover edition.Product details
- ASIN : B0C4GTY4JD
- Publisher : Anthem Press (June 6, 2023)
- Publication date : June 6, 2023
- Language : English
- File size : 2414 KB
- Text-to-Speech : Enabled
- Screen Reader : Supported
- Enhanced typesetting : Enabled
- X-Ray : Not Enabled
- Word Wise : Enabled
- Sticky notes : On Kindle Scribe
- Print length : 494 pages
- Best Sellers Rank: #62,565 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- #41 in Science History & Philosophy
- #102 in Environmental Science (Books)
- #198 in Public Affairs & Policy Politics Books
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CC is a problem that fossil fuel companies have deliberately spent millions of dollars to undermine, even though their own research supported those same ideas, as far back as the 1970-80s. It’s little wonder that CC scientists have fought so hard to get their ideas heard. In her own disillusionment, Judith pretty much slams the reputation of traditional climate scientists saying they only publish the party line to keep their jobs and get grants. She sounds just like the fossil fuel companies. Judith seems blind to her own biases. One could say the same about her publishing her book to recruit deniers to buy her book. Judith’s view that natural climate change is of equal importance to human caused climate changes ‘at this time’ does not match up with my perspective of the problem.
I’m not a CC scientist, but I taught college chemistry for 45 years and have studied CC for about 15 years. I’ve read 100s of books (2 of which were textbooks), articles, blogs, watched countless youtube lectures. I felt Judith implied that all CC scientists only attributed CC to excess CO2 (very brief mention of CH4 and N2O). She does point out how complex CC is, including social, political, economic aspects, but she is not unique in doing this. Others who consider CO2 a really big problem have done the same.
Judith claims factors like volcanoes, asteroids and solar factors are just as big in CC as human causes, but other scientists have considered all of those and found them – at our current time – to not be significant contributors. It’s true that a super volcano or large asteroid hit or major solar flare up would be catastrophic, and it has happened in the past, even causing mass extinctions. But it is NOT happening right now. To bring those up is a diversion from what our real problem is right now, burning too much fossil fuels which is adding too much CO2 to the atmosphere and oceans (and land management problems). CO2 is emphasized because it is the major product of FF combustion (although methane is approximately 1/3 of the problem, a few percent from N2O, O3 and CFCs).
CO2 and CH4 are increasing faster than ever and yet fossil fuel companies are pushing for even more coal, oil and natural gas extraction. I felt like Judith thought this was a good thing to maintain and improve the standard of living around the world. That is definitely something we want to do (improve standard of living), but not at a cost of destroying a livable world. We are taking 100s of millions of years of solar energy out of the ground and burning it in less than 200 years. It’s like we have become the largest volcanic eruptions in the history of earth. It’s crazy to think we aren’t disrupting our world. If you go back to the PETM there was significant volcanic activity with a huge effect on climate (maybe +10C), but even that was over 100,000s years, much slower than what we are doing. Some scientists think that (slower) release of CO2 trigger a really large tipping point of CH4 release. It’s certainly possible that we could do the same. Every year we set a new temperature record. Every year we add more CO2 than in previous years. And, we are stuck with what we’ve already put out there for hundreds of years. We can only hope that melting permafrost doesn’t trigger a rupture of additional CO2 and CH4 that we have no control over.
We will almost certainly have a blue ocean event in the Arctic by 2030s and Greenland and Antarctic ice is melting faster than ever, drastically changing albedo in the Arctic further warming earth, possibly increasing sea level rise by a meter (or more) by 2100+.
The points Judith raises are important and must be considered in our future approach to CC. Resilience is good, but will only work if we find sustainable ways to live with nature and don’t provoke tipping points. We don’t want to become like a bacteria culture in the death phase of growth.
We cannot take our eyes off of the major goals of reducing our use of fossil fuels as quickly as possible and finding more sustainable approaches (politics) to our use and sharing of resources on earth (animals, forests, ocean, minerals, water, land, cement, steel, fertilizers, plastics, ozone, fossil fuels, etc). I do agree we almost certainly will need to use some fossil fuels to get through hard times ahead, but we have to bring their use way down.
There are many problems that are made worse by many people and they will get worse in the coming decades. We are very close to losing earth’s coral reefs (at +2C), along with 25% of the ocean’s diversity and the Amazon rainforest with its vast diversity. Look across the Atlantic to Africa at the same latitude and imagine the Amazon as a desert like the Sahel. That would be an epic disaster. Can we save it? I don’t know, but to even have a chance we have to work like crazy people trying to save ourselves.
We have gigantic fires burning in the Boreal forests of Canada and Siberia, the Amazon, Australia, Europe and the western US. Texas, China, India, Canada, Europe, the western US, Australia are cooking with record temperatures. Will the Asian rice-producing Mekong Delta survive salt water intrusion into its water flow in the 21st century? What happens if we can't grow that rice? What about salt water intrusion into the Florida Everglades, San Francisco’s water table? Will sea level rise drown coastal cities around the world?
If we listen to Judith, we just assume a significant part of these problems are caused by natural climate and there is little we can do about it and better keep taking FFs out of the ground to raise standards of living. From all I’ve read and studied, I don’t buy that argument. Her book is important because it broadens our perspective and raises important points that we have to consider in addressing CC, but it is dangerous because it discounts what many other scientists tell us are major problems that have to be addressed and disputes the time crisis.
We are in a tough spot. My own biases are that we should conservatively continue to extract the fossil fuels that are already developed, but STOP all future exploration. This could give us a rationed amount of fossil fuels used in a limited way to transition to a different way of living. Those remaining fossil fuels would be more valuable than gold (might be better to say more valuable than water). I agree with Judith that nuclear should be part of the solution, but lots of people disagree, so there is another argument to settle.
Can rich nations give up their privilege to allow poorer nations to improve their standard of living? Probably not, but we have to. Do we need a different economic model that deemphasizes endless profit and infinite growth? Probably, but can we change? We need to stop subsidizing the fossil fuel industry. Judith has lots of ideas in these areas. We need to pick and choose among her ideas and others to try and find the ones that help solve our problems. Her uncertainty and risk analysis shows a possible paths to follow.
Despite a difference of opinion on various aspects of her book, I think it is a valuable, but challenging, book that everyone should read.
Hard-to-find gems include: Europe is backing off from their “green” programs because of the war in Ukraine; poverty and illness in Africa would be greatly relieved if countries were allowed to use fossil fuels for power generation; COVID restrictions lacked a proper scientific risk assessment; beneath the western side of Antarctica are volcanic heat sources that explain glacier melting there better than global warming; the only realistic low-risk source of energy for power generation that does not produce CO2 is nuclear power. It’s too bad such information is not consolidated in one chapter so the general reader need not slog through so much “theory” on risk assessment that is not specific to climate change. Was the author perhaps trying to diffuse expected criticism because the book does not follow the climate crisis script?
The more interesting story is how the author began facing discrimination from other researchers for concluding that there didn’t seem to be any scientific evidence in UN reports supporting alarmist views about “climate change” (formerly known as “global warming”). The author has discussed this experience in interviews, but writes little about it in this book. The book bends over backward to defend UN work where she feels that merit is justified. At the same time UN work is also criticized without engaging in conspiracy theories; the book is stridently politically neutral. Sources of information are profusely cited at the end of each chapter. Unfortunately, sometimes it can be difficult to know whether statements are the author’s or cited sources, sometimes resulting in apparent contradictions.
So, 5 stars for information content, and 3 stars for style of presentation of that information.
Top reviews from other countries
I would describe Curry's position as "centrist". She does not overstate or understate. Everything is carefully referenced. Facts and opinions are clearly signposted. The method is a paradigm of objectivity.
The book covers the topics of climate variability and change, not just the effect of CO2, but also of methane, other greenhouse gases, the sun, and multi-decadal oscillations. There is discussion of how climate change science is done, of the subtleties of what to expect from models that have been fine-tuned, and of the links between global warming and extreme weather events.
It also touches on wider issues about how science is politicized (and politics "scientized"), and of how to think about risk rationally under conditions of uncertainty.










