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Climatic Cataclysm: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change Hardcover – June 6, 2008
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Global climate change poses not only environmental hazards but profound risks to planetary peace and stability as well. Climatic Cataclysm gathers experts on climate science, oceanography, history, political science, foreign policy, and national security to take the measure of these risks. The contributors have developed three scenarios of what the future may hold. The expected scenario relies on current scientific models to project the effects of climate change over the next 30 years. The severe scenario, which posits a much stronger climate response to current levels of carbon loading, foresees profound and potentially destabilizing global effects over the next generation or more. Finally, the catastrophic scenario is characterized by a devastating "tipping point" in the climate system, perhaps 50 or 100 years hence. In this future world, the land-based polar ice sheets have disappeared, global sea levels have risen dramatically, and the existing natural order has been destroyed beyond repair. The contributors analyze the security implications of these scenarios, which at a minimum include increased disease proliferation; tensions caused by large-scale migration; and conflict sparked by resource scarcity, particularly in Africa. They consider what we can learn from the experience of early civilizations confronted with natural disaster, and they ask what the three largest emitters of greenhouse gases the United States, the European Union, and China can do to reduce and manage future risks. In the coming decade, the United States faces an ominous set of foreign policy and national security challenges. Global climate change will not only complicate these tasks, but as this sobering study reveals, it may also create new challenges that dwarf those of today. Contributors include Leon Fuerth (George Washington University), Jay Gulledge (Pew Center on Global Climate Change), Alexander T. J. Lennon (Center for Strategic and International Studies), J.R. McNeill (Georgetown University), Derek Mix (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Peter Ogden (Center for American Progress), John Podesta (Center for American Progress), Julianne Smith (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Richard Weitz (Hudson Institute), and R. James Woolsey (Booz Allen Hamilton).
- Print length237 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherBrookings Institution Press
- Publication dateJune 6, 2008
- Dimensions6.5 x 1 x 9.5 inches
- ISBN-100815713320
- ISBN-13978-0815713326
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Editorial Reviews
Review
"Climatic Cataclysm builds on the best available scientific evidence to create three scenarios about the way the peoples of the world ourselves included may come to live as the result of climate change at various levels of severity. There is a key insight here, and it is that climate change will not only stress every ecological system but every political system on the planet, and that beyond a certain level, it can push them into chaos. This book is an important effort to translate the broad outlines of climate change into more specific visualizations of the social, political, and moral consequences for regions, states, and peoples. It has a quality of realism that reflects the breadth of experience of its contributors and also the skill of its editors in creating an integrated narrative. Very little time remains for organizing around a coherent idea of the impact of climate change and of the scale of the efforts that will be needed to cope with it. Climatic Cataclysm helps show the way." Al Gore, Nobel Peace Laureate and former Vice President
"The authors provide an imaginative and worthwhile examination of what could turn out to be the greatest threat to our nation's security." Tom and Jerry Blog
"This important volume, edited by a leading figure in the foreign policy establishment, makes an eloquent argument for why today's decision-makers have no choice but to act on the coming dangers of global climate change." G. John Ikenberry, Foreign Affairs
"This disturbing, prophetic volume should be widely read." CHOICE
Review
"Climatic Cataclysm builds on the best available scientific evidence to create three scenarios about the way the peoples of the world ¿ourselves included ¿may come to live as the result of climate change at various levels of severity. There is a key insight here, and it is that climate change will not only stress every ecological system but every political system on the planet, and that beyond a certain level, it can push them into chaos. This book is an important effort to translate the broad outlines of climate change into more specific visualizations of the social, political, and moral consequences for regions, states, and peoples. It has a quality of realism that reflects the breadth of experience of its contributors and also the skill of its editors in creating an integrated narrative. Very little time remains for organizing around a coherent idea of the impact of climate change and of the scale of the efforts that will be needed to cope with it. Climatic Cataclysm helps show the way." ¿Al Gore, Nobel Peace Laureate and former Vice President
About the Author
Kurt M. Campbell is CEO and cofounder of the Center for a New American Security. He served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asia and the Pacific in the Clinton administration. Before that, he taught at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government and served in the Navy. His books include Hard Power:The New Politics of National Security, written with Michael O'Hanlon (Basic Books, 2006).
Product details
- Publisher : Brookings Institution Press (June 6, 2008)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 237 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0815713320
- ISBN-13 : 978-0815713326
- Item Weight : 1.17 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.5 x 1 x 9.5 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #3,370,413 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #2,177 in Rivers in Earth Science
- #2,377 in Weather (Books)
- #2,790 in Environmental Policy
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There have been many reports in recent years on the national security implications of climate change. This is among the best. Some recognizable names among the 12 authors are James Woolsey, former director of the CIA; Leon Fuerth, former national security advisor to Vice President Al Gore; and John Podesta, former chief of staff for President Bill Clinton. The other authors are also heavy hitters in their fields.
The authors created three increasingly grave scenarios: "expected" and "serious" over the next 30 years, and "catastrophic" over the next 100 years. These are quite frightening, particularly the latter two, and should not be read to small children. But this grave tone is appropriate for a report designed to warn of the urgency of the situation and present some serious thinking about its implications. The major implications are laid out in the final chapter for policy-makers, business leaders, and the rest of us to consider. A must-read for anyone who cares about what could happen in the rest of this century.
Three future climate scenarios are laid out, each with successive implications for the very functioning of American society. The third scenario, or catastrophic tipping point, is predicated on man-made atmospheric carbon essentially creating a new and vastly foreign climate regime. This is consistent with the latest scientitific research on anthropogenic global warming.
Brookings analysts argue that this third scenario holds the greatest danger in around 50-100 years for both the natural world and human civilization as humanity faces forced migration, diseases, and the increased possibilities of nuclear war as a variety of national security threats dramatically heighten.
Skip the summer sci-fi reading and take this one on...since it reads like a dystopia anyway.

