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Meredith LeBard
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George Friedman
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The Coming War With Japan Hardcover – January 1, 1991

by George Friedman (Author), Meredith Lebard (Author)
4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 19 ratings
See all formats and editions
Argues that the post-Cold War world will see the United States and Japan emerge as opponents, traces Japan's increasing power, and contends the United States holds the trump cards in the economic contest
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  1. Print length
    429 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    St Martins Pr
  4. Publication date
    January 1, 1991
  5. Dimensions
    1.3 x 6.3 x 9.5 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    0312058365
  7. ISBN-13
    978-0312058364
  8. See all details
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Customer reviews

4.4 out of 5 stars
19 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Topcat
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
Reviewed in the United States on February 23, 2015
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Excellent quality, price and service. Highly recommended.
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H KATER
5.0 out of 5 stars A very important book about Japan
Reviewed in the United States on October 3, 2018
One of the greatest geopolitical studies of a nation available to the public. The data and analysis is first class, even if the conclusions drawn are wrong. The geopolitical factors of a nation do not change. They are like a deck of cards they have to play with. But modern Japan is not the same as the country that existed before. This book is akin to identifying that a man has a broken leg. What he does with this situation is where the book goes wrong. But when Japan does what it does, it will be for the reasons outlined in this book.

This book will become more important as modern Japan develops. Because the analysis in this book will have created them, but not for the reasons people think, or the author. I wouldn't be surprised if this book is on military reading lists in the US and Japan. It should be. The data in this book is correct and will shape Japan's future.
2 people found this helpful
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Amazon Customer
4.0 out of 5 stars Wrong Prediction, but Fascinating Read
Reviewed in the United States on December 10, 2016
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Although his prediction is laughable now, it is still a fascinating read. It provides an interesting view into how some viewed Japan during the time it was written. It follows the dictum of Lord Palmerston, "A country's allies are not eternal, only its national interests."
10 people found this helpful
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Brian McMahon
5.0 out of 5 stars If only we had listened!!!
Reviewed in the United States on July 12, 2014
With remarkable foresight and astonishing presience the authors, Friedman and Lebard, foresaw in 1991 what was then seen as a specie of heresy, nay lunacy. Who could have foreseen then, save these geniuses, what we now know to to have been our future. These modern day Nostradamuses warned us, and we shunned their warning and turned our backs on them. Oh, the pity! The sorrow! If only we had listened. IF ONLY WE HAD LISTENED!!!! This book is best read with the companion volumes "Senegalese Franc: the 21st Century's Reserve Currency" and "Liechtenstein: The World's Next Superpower."
18 people found this helpful
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Michael T.
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
Reviewed in the United States on July 7, 2017
Japan has historically been aggressive on the military front and they will not forget the atomic bombs.
One person found this helpful
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Curmudgeon
1.0 out of 5 stars Interesting at the time, but in retrospect totally off base.
Reviewed in the United States on July 3, 2007
The Friedmans have a view of world power returning to the multipolar world status it was before 1914. In their view, the old reasons for the USA and Japan to be allies had ended as of 1991, and economic frictions would lead to conflict between the two countries.

But in retrospect, they were very, very wrong. In fact, the USA and Japan probably have more reasons to be economic, political and even military allies in an increasingly dangerous world than ever before.

1. While the Friedmans thought Red China would come apart ("The same forces that destroyed European communism are present in China, suppressed at Tiananmen Square"), and that the resulting "refragmentation of China" would lead to Japanese vs. American intrigue in China, that hasn't happened!

Red China, while it calls itself communist, has in many ways reinvented or rediscovered fascism, with private corporations subject to tight state political control. And it is far from politically breaking up. Indeed, quite the contrary, an increasingly militarized and aggressive Red China, now with a blue water navy, will draw Japan and the USA closer together even more than the Soviet threat did.

2. The need to contain and perhaps reform the Muslim menace, and the need to secure oil and other resources, will again give Japan and the USA far more reasons to cooperate than to compete against each other. Already Japan has been quite cooperative with US military intervention in Iraq, in rather stark contrast to US "allies" like France.

3. Lastly, the Friedmans completely missed the demographic factor. For a nation to be willing to become more belligerent, especially against a nation as powerful as the USA, it had better have a large enough pool of angry young people, particularly men, willing to fight. Japan has one of the world's lowest birthrates, with 1.2 per woman as opposed to 2.1 per woman in the USA, and Japan has one of the lowest proportions of people under 30 of any nation on earth. Even with a society as into robotic technologies as Japan is, that's a serious and fatal flaw in the Friedmans' analysis.
109 people found this helpful
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R. Jensen
3.0 out of 5 stars It's REALLY hard to predict the future
Reviewed in the United States on January 8, 2014
I'm sure the author had good reasons in 1991 to write this, and he's a really smart guy.
But, here we are, 23 years later, and Japan wouldn't even make the list of the top 30 nations in the world the US would go to war with.

This goes to show that predicting the future is near impossible. There are too many moving parts.
12 people found this helpful
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Howard Newcombe
4.0 out of 5 stars Sound analysis, some good points
Reviewed in the United States on November 4, 2010
Though events in the two decades following publication of this book have not proceeded as the authors predicted, it is still a useful analysis.

The authors failed to anticipate 1) that the Chinese communist system would survive the fall of the Soviet and East Europe communist regimes 2) that the frenetic globalization of the world economy would lead to vast increases in Chinese power and influence and 3) that Japan's economy would tailspin into a (terminal?) deflationary spiral. These three factors, together, create a situation of a powerful China and a weak Japan. So the Japanese are no longer in any position to threaten anybody with military aggression.

Still, should the future develop into a Cold War-style standoff between the PRC and the USA, all the old factors active during the USA-USSR cold war will once again become pertinent. This is where the book shines with its analysis of cold war power politics and economics. Well worth reviewing.

I think the most important point made in the book is that during a cold war-type situation, events that take place anywhere on the globe have a profound impact on the behaviors of the two competitors. When that situation ended between 1989 and 1991 (with the decline and collapse of the USSR), that entire dynamic ends and a "de-coupling" of crisis events makes for a situation in which a US-Japan split becomes possible and likely, as described in the book.

I also very much liked the text on the back cover which illustrates just how unpredictable the teeter-totter of history can be. How the world can change completely only in a span of twenty years.
15 people found this helpful
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