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The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States: A Speculative Novel Kindle Edition

4.3 out of 5 stars 1,361

This “brilliantly conceived” novel imagines a devastating nuclear attack on America and the official government report of the calamity (Eric Schlosser, author of Fast Food Nation and Command and Control).
 
“The skies over the Korean Peninsula on March 21, 2020, were clear and blue.” So begins this sobering report by the Commission on the Nuclear Attacks against the United States, established by Congress and President Donald J. Trump to investigate the horrific events of the following three days. An independent, bipartisan panel led by nuclear expert Jeffrey Lewis, the commission was charged with finding and reporting the relevant facts, investigating how the nuclear war began, and determining whether our government was adequately prepared.
 
Did President Trump and his advisers understand North Korean views about nuclear weapons? Did the tragic milestones of that fateful month—North Korea's accidental shoot-down of Air Busan flight 411, the retaliatory strike by South Korea, and the tweet that triggered vastly more carnage—inevitably lead to war? Or did America’s leaders have the opportunity to avert the greatest calamity in the history of our nation?
 
Answering these questions will not bring back the lives lost in March, 2020. It will not rebuild New York, Washington, or the other cities reduced to rubble. But at the very least, it might prevent a tragedy of this magnitude from occurring again. It is this hope that inspired The 2020 Commission Report.
 
“I couldn’t put the book down, reading most of it in the course of one increasingly intense evening. If fear of nuclear war is going to keep you up at night, at least it can be a page-turner.”—New Scientist

Editorial Reviews

Review

"...Lewis’s book is very effective and deeply affecting. And as a warning of how close we are to unimaginable catastrophe, it’s downright chilling." —The Weekly Standard "I have only read a few more convincing accounts of how events can spiral out of control than what you can and should read in The 2020 Commission Report."  —War on the Rocks "The tone – set midway between bureaucratic sterility and a Tom Clancy thriller – works very well...I couldn’t put the book down, reading most of it in the course of one increasingly intense evening. If fear of nuclear war is going to keep you up at night, at least it can be a page-turner."—New Scientist "Disturbingly plausible...with painstaking detail and bleak humor."—Slate “Astonishing . . . Lewis deftly intertwines real-world reports with a fictional narrative that extends some of the president’s worst flaws to logical conclusions.”—The Daily Beast "Terrifyingly plausible . . . A horrific imagined future based on a quite plausible extrapolation of the present . . . In its efforts to tug at the sleeve of a blithe nation, Lewis’s book follows in the post-apocalyptic footsteps of Nevil Shute’s On the Beach or the 1983 film The Day After. In its black comedy, which surfaces in the deadpan prose of the report, it is a Dr Strangelove for our time. Trump is as flamboyantly grotesque a character as any cooked up by Stanley Kubrick and Peter Sellers."—The Guardian “Terrifying . . . the warning we need right now . . . [The 2020 Commission Report] aims to do what The Day After did, and spur us to action . . . It shows us an entirely plausible path from today's tense geopolitics to atomic annihilation and beyond, to what comes after nuclear fire.”—VICE Motherboard “Lewis’s cautionary tale is a reminder of the grave risks at stake if diplomatic talks with Pyongyang fail, and the dangerous consequences that could follow if Washington returns to military brinkmanship and threatening rhetoric in a renewed attempt to pressure North Korea to unilaterally disarm.”—Voice of America “A book with a ferocious pace and more black humor than one could imagine.”—Evening Standard (London) “Jeffrey Lewis has taken one of our most serious security crises and imagined how it could erupt into a catastrophic nuclear war. The result is a book that is entertaining—it grips the reader with its dramatic story—but also educational: it informs the reader what an unprecedented catastrophe even a ‘small’ nuclear war would be, and how easy it would be for us to blunder into one. This lesson must be learned by more of us if we are to take the actions that could lower the probability of such a catastrophe.”—William J. Perry, former US Secretary of Defense “The plot of this novel is so absurd and implausible—a nuclear war prompted by a presidential tweet—that it feels devastatingly true. The 2020 Commission Report is a brilliantly conceived page-turner. Let’s hope it isn’t prophetic.”—Eric Schlosser, author of Fast Food Nation and Command and Control

About the Author

Neil Hellegers grew up in New Jersey and attended the University of Pennsylvania, where he earned a BA in theater arts and a minor in psychology before getting an MFA in acting from the Trinity Rep Conservatory in Providence, Rhode Island. He moved to New York City in 2003 and, since then, has made a career of theatrical performance, percussion, theater education, and audiobook narration. He currently lives in Brooklyn with his wife and son.



Jeffrey Lewis, PhD is a columnist for Foreign Policy, a scholar at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and a research affiliate at the Stanford University Center for Security and International Cooperation. He previously worked for the Department of Defense. Also a former director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation and former executive director of the Managing the Atom Project at the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School, he is currently the publisher of ArmsControlWonk.com, the leading blog on disarmament, arms control, and nonproliferation. In addition to hosting the Arms Control Wonk podcast, he was profiled on This American Life, and has written for the New York Times, the Atlantic, the Daily Beast, the Washington Post, and elsewhere.

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ B079VDR6HM
  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Mariner Books (August 7, 2018)
  • Publication date ‏ : ‎ August 7, 2018
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • File size ‏ : ‎ 7903 KB
  • Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Screen Reader ‏ : ‎ Supported
  • Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Sticky notes ‏ : ‎ On Kindle Scribe
  • Print length ‏ : ‎ 306 pages
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.3 out of 5 stars 1,361

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Customer reviews

4.3 out of 5 stars
4.3 out of 5
1,361 global ratings
Mind-Blowing Blend of Reality and Possibility
5 Stars
Mind-Blowing Blend of Reality and Possibility
The writer uses only factual information for all events leading up to August 7, 2018 and then creates a dense, compelling, and utterly believable tale of the reality that is entirely-too-possible in the days and years that follow.Like a new genre entirely. A must-read.
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Top reviews from the United States

Reviewed in the United States on June 7, 2020
First, I will tell you where I sit before I tell you where I stand. In addition to a career as a Defense Dept. analyst, I am a university lecturer on international relations and security with a PhD based on decision making in American foreign policy.

An innovative speculative history on two different levels - 1) the events are very near time since it is placed as a crisis in March of 2020; 2) it is written as the report of a special commission such as occurred post-Septemeber 11th and Pearl Harbor (both of which are referenced). The result is not the techno-thriller of Tom Clancy or either of PW Singer's forays into the genre. The book is more academic in style if published in a journal such as MIT's INTERNATIONAL SECURITY.

Dr. Lewis's choice of speculative fiction allowed him to blend Korean politics, nuclear proliferation, and American national security decision making in an entertaining manner. By staying away from the emotion and pathos that accompanies a great deal of this literature, he guides the reader to draw their own conclusion.

His plot is sound and demonstrates that Dr. Lewis is familiar with the war planning scenarios that are used as the basis of strategy development.

I would recommend this to the serious reader in national security or international relations. I will be adding it to my list of recommended readings for students.
3 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on August 20, 2018
Beginning with accidental shootdown of a South Korean passenger plane and ending with the detonation of multiple ICBMs on U.S. soil, the 2020 Commission Report is the "official" analysis on the chain of events that led to the darkest day in U.S. history.

Even though it's billed as "A Speculative Novel," the 2020 Commission Report is not written like a traditional novel. It's formatted like an official report commissioned by U.S. Federal Government (it's stylized like The 9/11 Commission Report). So those looking for a traditional narrative may get bogged down in the technical detail, military jargon, and lack of "main characters."

However, for those who know what they're in for, the 2020 Commission Report is thrilling and plausible look at how a modern nuclear conflict would play itself out. Jeffrey Lewis has created a "pastiche" novel - it blends fact and speculative fiction masterfully. A majority of this book relies on actual reports and assessments of North Korea, the U.S.'s ability to respond to nuclear threats, and the consequences of a nuclear detonation in a major metropolitan city (complete with damage maps).

And, yes, to address the elephant in the room - this book (for the most part) doesn't rely on fictional characters. Donald Trump is president (the book even concludes with a "Statement by Former President of the United States Donald J. Trump"), and his administration are the ones handling the diplomacy. The consequences of Trump's Twitter habits are explored at length and taken to their logical (and terminal) conclusion. His staff's attempts to manage and rein in the president's erratic behavior play a pivotal role in the cascade of events.

The detached style of the 2020 Commission Report may put some readers off, but - for me - the coldness of the prose made it more terrifying. Some might consider this type of book to be alarmist, but Lewis knows his stuff and he shoots through mulitple misconceptions the American public has on nuclear warfare (for example, we vastly overestimate our ability to intercept missiles before they hit their targets).

The 2020 Commission Report is a quick read that will be frustrating to some, and horrifically compelling to others. Recommended.
7 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on August 11, 2018
This is a satirical mock report from a commission set up to examine the events leading to the thermonuclear attack on the United States, South Korea and Japan by North Korea in the year 2020. A horrifying portrait of attacks on Tokyo, Seoul, Pusan, Mar-a-lago, and New York City. Many of the accounts of survivors are lifted directly from accounts of Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors. The author is an expert on arms control.

There are some aspects of black comedy in the narrative. The author clearly is not impressed by the decision-making and governing style of the Trump administration. At one point, the major carrying the "football" has to wrestle it away from Trump to prevent him from launching a nuclear attack on China. Trump then yells "You're fired! You're fired!" The incidents and tweets portrayed certainly ring true to what we have seen of Trump's behavior as President.

There is not a happy ending. In the end, Trump Tower and Melania are vaporized, Trump is impeached but not removed from office, and Pence wins the 2020 election. The right wing seems to have triumphed by declaring that the attack was a false flag operation done by the U.S., just as the 9/11 attacks were called a false flag operation.

It is not clear whether the target of the satire is Donald Trump or the United States electorate. I tend to think it is the latter.
5 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on August 29, 2018
I have been a huge fan of Doctor Lewis. From his post on arms control wonk, I knew what to expect when I saw this book. It wasn’t a disappointment. You can really see his love for the topic in the details he uses in the book. Relating real world information and adding some fictional elements to it really brought a depth to a story. I really hope this work of fiction is picked up by more than just people who are interested in the topic. I will say I love the addition of using Japanese survivors testimony. As a slowly dwindling group we should remember them and the cost they paid for living in a normal city near some military targets.

I will say my only disagreement with the book was his handling of Trump. (Spoilers ahead) I know in certain points of our nations history our leaders have taken missteps and I like that Trump and his advisors don’t make the right call on that day. However I get the point that Doctor Lewis wants us to see Trump as a man baby. Constantly telling us in the report that he was pouting or hard to handle was a distraction. The story read like an actual government report until topics with Trump came around.

Overall this is a great read and I would strongly recommend it to others.
3 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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Gordon
5.0 out of 5 stars This has aged extremely well.
Reviewed in Canada on December 23, 2022
Written in 2018, this book was extremely well researched and informed, giving readers a regretful and retroscopic view on the failure to prevent a nuclear war. I was fascinated how the author didn't need to use a lot of fiction to tell his story - this could easily have happened. Most interesting is the story of President Trump slowly losing it - The author predicted Trump's impulsiveness and inability to be managed even in an emergency. If you've been following the January 6th Committee, you may be interested in this.
Wellington Amorim
5.0 out of 5 stars Ótimo romance especulativo sobre a Crise Coreana
Reviewed in Brazil on January 12, 2019
Um ótimo livro. Partindo de sólido embasamento em crises anteriores (por exemplo, a queda do Boeing sul-coreano atingido por mísseis russos, em 1983) e na situação atual, Lewis constrói um cenário assustador. Mesmo que a narrativa sobre as consequências dos ataques não seja tão fluida, é um livro obrigatório para os que estudam Relações Internacionais, especialmente os interessados em Leste Asiático.
Adam
5.0 out of 5 stars A very plausible end of days
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 19, 2020
A nuclear nightmare triggered by a rats nest of cause and effect is an uncomfortably possible eventuality. Especially when you have two paranoid, ego driven maniacs driving affairs. Trump is here represented in all his cretinous stupidity and venality, acting pretty much on the same level as he does in day to day reality. He sends a tweet that is one of the triggers for this apocalypse, his aides and staffers and advisers focus on managing his ego and undoing the potential damage of his whims, it should all feel wearyingly familiar. That said, knocking Trump is not the aim of this book, it just tries to imagine how he would react given the data we have especially on his reactions to the Pandemic, to a crisis situation. The paranoid chain of decision making of Kim Jong Un is also feels utterly plausible. And the causes of this calamity stem right back to the actions of previous administrations on setting out a geo-political framework that simultaneously creates and then corners aggressive nations.
The writer should know what he is writing about, being a Foreign Policy and arms control expert. Starting with accidental shooting down of an South Korean airliner that is triggered in turn by heightened sensitivities of North Korea following US and S Korean war games, events spiral as S Korea unilaterally decide a limited conventional strike, keen to show they can act independently of the US. But Kim, helped by the Trumps antagonistic Tweeting, believes S Korea and Trump are acting together, and hits the nuclear button, at first at US targets in S Korea and Japan, hoping this will cow the US, when it doesn't, he launches an IBM strike against US cities.
Everything in this books seems plausible. I read it in two sittings, finding it very hard to put down. Much is made of the black humour in the blurb, but I found that to be understated, which is very welcome. Any humour lies in the bizarre strangeness of events, and the impossible clumsiness of human actions, like slapstick from Hell. This is not about trying out-strange Strangelove or point scoring or cheap sensationalism. Movingly, the writer uses the real testimony of Hiroshima survivors to inform the witness testimonies of survivors in this book.
Brilliant, chilling, unforgettable.
Bit Byte
5.0 out of 5 stars Was wäre wenn...
Reviewed in Germany on June 16, 2020
Ein spannendes und erstaunlich leicht zu lesendes Buch (in Englisch). Das Erschreckende ist, ich kann mir vorstellen, dass es genau so passieren könnte. Eine Mahnung, die Gefahren der weltweit vorhandenen Atomwaffen nicht zu vergessen.
Sardaukar
4.0 out of 5 stars Looks very real, which is worrying
Reviewed in France on August 17, 2018
Of course, it is not a Tom Clancy. It is the report of a commission, dry, factual, accurate and documented. No romance, no super agent. Based on known and real facts and characters, until 2018 and extrapolated between 2018 and 2020. What I do not understand is why there is not a word about the reactions of allies (NATO) and "ennemies" (China, the Russian Federation, various third wordl countries) at a time of maximum vulnerability of the USA. Right after 9/11, Nato stated that the USA could invoke Article 5 (an attack against one member is an attack on all members), W.Bush declined to invoke it.
I doubt China would stand still if North Korea crumbled and was flooded by US troops next to its borders. This time of turmoil would also be ideal for a Taiwan invasion (liberation in China speak).
Trump is what he is, we all know it. But he was legally elected. The bottom line of this book is that Bannon was right when he said that "North Korea boxed us in, we can't stop them anymore". Only China has the leverage to change the DPRK behaviour or regime. And China seems to enjoy the currently murky situation, that could explode anytime.
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