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Jeffrey G. Lewis

The 2020 Commission Report On The North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against The U.s.: A Speculative Novel Paperback – August 7, 2018

by Jeffrey Lewis (Author)

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“A brilliantly conceived page-turner.”—Eric Schlosser, author of Fast Food Nation and Command and Control

“I couldn’t put the book down, reading most of it in the course of one increasingly intense evening. If fear of nuclear war is going to keep you up at night, at least it can be a page-turner.”—New Scientist

America lost 1.4 million citizens in the North Korean attacks of March 2020. This is the final, authorized report of the government commission charged with investigating the calamity.

“The skies over the Korean Peninsula on March 21, 2020, were clear and blue.” So begins this sobering report on the findings of the Commission on the Nuclear Attacks against the United States, established by law by Congress and President Donald J. Trump to investigate the horrific events of the next three days. An independent, bipartisan panel led by nuclear expert Jeffrey Lewis, the commission was charged with finding and reporting the relevant facts, investigating how the nuclear war began, and determining whether our government was adequately prepared for combating a nuclear adversary and safeguarding U.S. citizens. Did President Trump and his advisers understand North Korean views about nuclear weapons? Did they appreciate the dangers of provoking the country’s ruler with social media posts and military exercises? Did the tragic milestones of that fateful month—North Korea's accidental shoot-down of Air Busan flight 411, the retaliatory strike by South Korea, and the tweet that triggered vastly more carnage—inevitably lead to war? Or did America’s leaders have the opportunity to avert the greatest calamity in the history of our nation?

Answering these questions will not bring back the lives lost in March 2020. It will not rebuild New York, Washington, or the other cities reduced to rubble. But at the very least, it might prevent a tragedy of this magnitude from occurring again. It is this hope, more than any other, that inspired The 2020 Commission Report.

Print length

304 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Harper Paperbacks
Publication date

August 7, 2018
Dimensions

5.31 x 0.79 x 8 inches
ISBN-10

1328573915
ISBN-13

978-1328573919
See all details

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Editorial Reviews

Review

"...Lewis’s book is very effective and deeply affecting. And as a warning of how close we are to unimaginable catastrophe, it’s downright chilling." —The Weekly Standard "I have only read a few more convincing accounts of how events can spiral out of control than what you can and should read in The 2020 Commission Report." —War on the Rocks "The tone – set midway between bureaucratic sterility and a Tom Clancy thriller – works very well...I couldn’t put the book down, reading most of it in the course of one increasingly intense evening. If fear of nuclear war is going to keep you up at night, at least it can be a page-turner."—New Scientist "Disturbingly plausible...with painstaking detail and bleak humor."—Slate “Astonishing . . . Lewis deftly intertwines real-world reports with a fictional narrative that extends some of the president’s worst flaws to logical conclusions.”—The Daily Beast "Terrifyingly plausible . . . A horrific imagined future based on a quite plausible extrapolation of the present . . . In its efforts to tug at the sleeve of a blithe nation, Lewis’s book follows in the post-apocalyptic footsteps of Nevil Shute’s On the Beach or the 1983 film The Day After. In its black comedy, which surfaces in the deadpan prose of the report, it is a Dr Strangelove for our time. Trump is as flamboyantly grotesque a character as any cooked up by Stanley Kubrick and Peter Sellers."—The Guardian “Terrifying . . . the warning we need right now . . . [The 2020 Commission Report] aims to do what The Day After did, and spur us to action . . . It shows us an entirely plausible path from today's tense geopolitics to atomic annihilation and beyond, to what comes after nuclear fire.”—VICE Motherboard “Lewis’s cautionary tale is a reminder of the grave risks at stake if diplomatic talks with Pyongyang fail, and the dangerous consequences that could follow if Washington returns to military brinkmanship and threatening rhetoric in a renewed attempt to pressure North Korea to unilaterally disarm.”—Voice of America “A book with a ferocious pace and more black humor than one could imagine.”—Evening Standard (London) “Jeffrey Lewis has taken one of our most serious security crises and imagined how it could erupt into a catastrophic nuclear war. The result is a book that is entertaining—it grips the reader with its dramatic story—but also educational: it informs the reader what an unprecedented catastrophe even a ‘small’ nuclear war would be, and how easy it would be for us to blunder into one. This lesson must be learned by more of us if we are to take the actions that could lower the probability of such a catastrophe.”—William J. Perry, former US Secretary of Defense “The plot of this novel is so absurd and implausible—a nuclear war prompted by a presidential tweet—that it feels devastatingly true. The 2020 Commission Report is a brilliantly conceived page-turner. Let’s hope it isn’t prophetic.”—Eric Schlosser, author of Fast Food Nation and Command and Control

About the Author

Jeffrey Lewis, PhD is a columnist for Foreign Policy, a scholar at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and a research affiliate at the Stanford University Center for Security and International Cooperation. He previously worked for the Department of Defense. Also a former director of the Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation and former executive director of the Managing the Atom Project at the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School, he is currently the publisher of ArmsControlWonk.com, the leading blog on disarmament, arms control, and nonproliferation. In addition to hosting the Arms Control Wonk podcast, he was profiled on This American Life, and has written for TheNew York Times, The Atlantic, The Daily Beast, The Washington Post, and elsewhere.

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Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Harper Paperbacks (August 7, 2018)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Paperback ‏ : ‎ 304 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1328573915
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1328573919
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 11.2 ounces
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.31 x 0.79 x 8 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #201,722 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #1,090 in Political Fiction (Books)
- #1,550 in Terrorism Thrillers (Books)
- #2,762 in Political Thrillers (Books)

Customer Reviews:
490 ratings

Customer reviews

5 star		55%
4 star		23%
3 star		11%
2 star		4%
1 star		7%

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Top reviews from the United States

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Amazon Customer

Politically biased, immature vitriol!

Reviewed in the United States on April 8, 2019

Verified Purchase

"Pathetic piece of work."

The book had great potential and I was even prepared to give it a fair shake after reading the other reviews, but Lewis squanders it by very lazy writing and an out of place, inappropriate, zealous, emotional, irrational loathing of President Trump not worthy of a PhD. Sure the bits about the ACTUAL speculation when it comes to armed conflict with North Korea are interesting. But what I do not find interesting is the fact that Lewis writes unintelligent, pitiful, immature and fantasy-like depictions of Trump that sound like they were co authored by Alec Baldwin. Trump calling a nuclear strike on NYC "beautiful", insisting his golf score be put in the "commission report", getting into a brawl with the military attaché carrying the nuclear football, and Lewis constantly citing "unnamed sources" in the White House as evidence for his speculations. All of these things I found insulting to a reader like myself who just wanted a stimulating, creative, futuristic novel about a hot button foreign policy issue without political bias. Lewis disappoints in every way by his lack of creativity, intellect, and professionalism. Don't waste your money or time!

34 people found this helpful

Helpful

Marketed as a novel but largely based on factual information

Reviewed in the United States on August 15, 2018

Verified Purchase

Recent news reports suggest that a North Korean nuclear attack is distinctly within the realm of possibility. And this new novel makes clear how it might actually happen.

Under the shadow of the nuclear umbrella
I grew up under the shadow of the nuclear umbrella. And, no, I wasn't the least bit reassured that that umbrella was supposedly there to defend us all.

** In high school, some of my classmates' parents built fallout shelters. Grade school kids were taught to duck under their desks in the event of a nuclear attack.
** As a college student, I lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis in a panic; my best friend hopped into a car and drove to the woods on Michigan's Northern Peninsula.
** I read the work of Herman Kahn, who famously asserted that the United States could win a nuclear war with casualties in the tens of millions.
** And I read John Hersey's Hiroshima, learned about the damage in utero from nuclear fallout, and became familiar with the concept of nuclear winter.

To this day, I shudder at the thought that miscalculation, mechanical error, or misguided policies could unleash nuclear weapons upon a world that will never be ready for them. Next to global warming, nuclear weapons remain the greatest existential threat to the human race. So it's no accident that I rushed to buy a copy of Jeffrey Lewis' shocking new novel that imagines a North Korean nuclear attack on the United States in March 2020.

A plausible scenario
Much of the 2020 Commission Report is entirely factual. As Lewis states on the copyright page at the front of the book, "Everything that takes place before August 7, 2018, is true and supported by the endnotes, which are also true. Everything that takes place after that date is invented." However, since I have read a great deal about both North Korea and the Trump Administration, I know that the North Korean nuclear attack Lewis invented is entirely plausible. And the survivors' testimonies that dramatize the impact of the war are taken largely verbatim from "the stories of the Hibakusha—the Japanese people who survived the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945."

Miscommunication, misinformation, and miscalculation
The 2020 Commission Report describes the sequence of miscommunications, misinformation, and miscalculation that leads North Korea to unleash "54 nuclear-armed ballistic missiles against targets in South Korea and Japan," resulting in the immediate loss of 1.4 million lives and five million more wounded. Hours later, North Korea launches 13 nuclear missiles to demolish Pearl Harbor, the US naval base at San Diego, Washington DC, Trump Tower, and Mar-a-Lago. Although nearly half the missiles fail to reach their targets, more than enough do. The attack virtually demolishes Tokyo, Seoul, New York City, and Northern Virginia. (None of the missiles are intercepted by American antimissile defenses.)

Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump share the blame for this catastrophe
Much of the blame for the North Korean nuclear attack rests on Kim Jong-un. He is clearly responsible for launching these devastating attacks. However, is is clear in Lewis' account that Donald Trump and members of his administration share a large measure of guilt as well. Trump's massive ego, his stubborn belief in conspiracy theories and other fantasies, his distrust even of those who are most devoted to him, and his habit of insulting his adversaries via Twitter—all contribute to the debacle. So does the unwillingness of his staff to give him bad news or contradict him.

The human cost of the war
Understandably, Lewis' book focuses on the human cost of this terrible one-day war. He details the immediate impact of the nuclear explosions themselves, the firestorms that were generated in several cities, the massive numbers of deaths from radiation poisoning and cancer, and the famine caused by the sudden, extreme drop in global temperatures that reduced crop yields worldwide. What is missing from this account are the economic consequences.

In the scenario Lewis portrays, with nuclear weapons devastating Seoul, Tokyo, New York City, and Northern Virginia, it's obvious that one of the speediest and most noticeable effects of the war would be financial. The world economy would go into a tailspin. The dollar would collapse. World trade would take a nosedive. With hundreds of trillions of dollars needed to rebuild, and economic activity crippled, Manhattan, Tokyo, and Seoul are unlikely ever to recover. And the 1.75-degree lower temperature Lewis predicts to occur in each of the three years following the war might be only the first phase of a nuclear winter. A North Korean nuclear attack on South Korea, Japan, and the United States, despite the relatively small number of weapons involved, could well set back the human race as much as a century.

About the author
Jeffrey Lewis is an academic expert on nuclear proliferation and geopolitics. He has written two books on China's nuclear weapons program.

27 people found this helpful

Helpful

StukaFox

Good, but it could have been so much better

Reviewed in the United States on August 8, 2018

Verified Purchase

Jeff Lewis' foray into the future history of a 48-hour nuclear war launched by North Korea is a page-turner to be sure, but had he taken some story-telling clues from Strieber's classic nuke war history, "Warday", The 2020 Commission Report could have been a classic in the genre.

The writing is breezy, and a little too much so. Not to say Lewis doesn't tell a good story -- in fact, he has the makings of a great story -- but there's precious little meat on the skeleton of his plot. He spins a believable scenario of how N. Korea ended up lobbing nukes at everything within missile's reach, and the lead-in is compelling, but once the nukes do start flying, he seems to lose interest in his own story. Telling the story of what happened after the nukes started popping off, we're treated to an in-depth look at what President Trump is doing (and not doing), but as for the millions roasted in the nuclear fires, their voices are relegated to mere snippets of eyewitness accounts -- and those stories are incredibly airy, mostly variants on "oh gosh, it was awful!".

Even in describing the aftermath of this 48-hour war, which would have been worthy of a book itself, Lewis seems to have lost all the intensity that made the ealier chapters such a good read. He talks about public health emergencies and a touch of global cooling, but somehow leaves out what the financial cost of such a war would be to the United States and how the war impacted the rest of the world. There's almost a "and they lived happily ever after" feel to the final chapter, as if Lewis was trying to get the book out the door before the summer reading season petered out.

"Warday" deserves an updated successor, and the future-history genre' can always use another story; that's what makes the shortfalls in The 2020 Commission Report so disappointing. Adding more details about the effect of war itself, a little more depth to the story-telling, and a fuller conclusion could have propelled this book from just a fun read to being a classic in the nuke war canon along with Alas, Babylon and On The Beach.

69 people found this helpful

Helpful

Top reviews from other countries

Harry Buckle

Compulsory reading for all. Not Trump or Kim bashing.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 26, 2018

Verified Purchase

A terrifying reality, with occasions of black humour. The premise being, posturing politics and confused communications have resulted in the thinkable happening. A Nuclear attack from North Korea-hitting much of South Korea, Japan and various Trump spots in the USA...Florida, New York City and some others.
It is NOT a rabid anti Trump book, nor is it gung ho against North Korea.
In clinical- but very readable style - it goes through the facts of the matter- had it occurred.
What worked, what likely didn't work, the human FUBAR effect...with very little Trump and Kim extremes actually affecting the whole scenario or the result.
So as I said...not just Trump or Kim bashing, and should be required reading for supporters and anti's -of both of them.
Read -learn- and face up to the sad reality, that missile US defence systems are unproven, unworking and unworkable. But of course no one's owning up to that because they cost a lot of tax dollars , and the politicos who spent the money aren't going to tell you, and neither are the military.
They won't even work despite the long time available from rocket launch (almost 40 minutes from NK to East Coast USA.) mainly because the window of effectiveness is only about ten minutes...and that's mostly in the period during which the US would be figuring out what was going on. But most of the above knew that already.
In the events scenario : Basic South Korea defence and retaliation to the accidental shooting down of a passenger plane-(yes that again, but it is a constant reality that has occurred many times in the real world), shuts down most of NK's communication systems so -either Mr Kim pushes the Button , or as it would be in reality- unable to contact The Boss - The Button gets pushed by others. Those being NK standing orders...although not standing orders in the USA.
And then we come to the searing aftermath...despite several millions killed in Japan, The Korea's and the USA, the nations survive...and embark on re-building.
'The Official Report' on what happened, then tells with searing reality of some of the effects of such an event or 'Nuclear Accident'- for that is what it really is.
The author's first person sources of those descriptions and the facts contained therein, are impeccable, well researched and -they- are such a terrifying reality that reading this book should be compulsory reading for all...including those involved at all levels.
Do not let the book title- or my 'compulsory' reading comment- or your apathy about 'yet more Trump and Kim stuff-(it's not)- put you off. Read it...and share it... for all of our sakes.

7 people found this helpful

Mr. T. O. Womack

Excellent setup but misses the landing

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 28, 2018

Verified Purchase

I suppose the conceit of the book obliges it to take a very America-centric focus, but I felt the direct reuse of Hiroshima testimony missed the chance to observe how 2020 America and 1945 Japan differed, and I really wanted to know more about the aftermath of unprecedented disaster - that may not be something anyone could write, but World War Z did a better job.

4 people found this helpful

Adam

A very plausible end of days

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 19, 2020

Verified Purchase

A nuclear nightmare triggered by a rats nest of cause and effect is an uncomfortably possible eventuality. Especially when you have two paranoid, ego driven maniacs driving affairs. Trump is here represented in all his cretinous stupidity and venality, acting pretty much on the same level as he does in day to day reality. He sends a tweet that is one of the triggers for this apocalypse, his aides and staffers and advisers focus on managing his ego and undoing the potential damage of his whims, it should all feel wearyingly familiar. That said, knocking Trump is not the aim of this book, it just tries to imagine how he would react given the data we have especially on his reactions to the Pandemic, to a crisis situation. The paranoid chain of decision making of Kim Jong Un is also feels utterly plausible. And the causes of this calamity stem right back to the actions of previous administrations on setting out a geo-political framework that simultaneously creates and then corners aggressive nations.
The writer should know what he is writing about, being a Foreign Policy and arms control expert. Starting with accidental shooting down of an South Korean airliner that is triggered in turn by heightened sensitivities of North Korea following US and S Korean war games, events spiral as S Korea unilaterally decide a limited conventional strike, keen to show they can act independently of the US. But Kim, helped by the Trumps antagonistic Tweeting, believes S Korea and Trump are acting together, and hits the nuclear button, at first at US targets in S Korea and Japan, hoping this will cow the US, when it doesn't, he launches an IBM strike against US cities.
Everything in this books seems plausible. I read it in two sittings, finding it very hard to put down. Much is made of the black humour in the blurb, but I found that to be understated, which is very welcome. Any humour lies in the bizarre strangeness of events, and the impossible clumsiness of human actions, like slapstick from Hell. This is not about trying out-strange Strangelove or point scoring or cheap sensationalism. Movingly, the writer uses the real testimony of Hiroshima survivors to inform the witness testimonies of survivors in this book.
Brilliant, chilling, unforgettable.

FG

Scary , 'lifelike' behaviour of P Trump. Who needs fiction?

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 26, 2018

Verified Purchase

The conduct of President Trump and his lifestyle read like the daily reports from the US about his behaviour. However, some more context about Chinese and Russian reactions to events might have rounded off the 'report' as would a bit more about the post-attack recovery health issues given the relatively few cities actually hit. Given the loss of US personnel and material in S Korea, the ability to mount such a big conventional ai campaign with depleted local support seems unlikely?

2 people found this helpful

Amazon Customer

The worrying plausibility of the premise makes it a terrifying, but interesting read.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 24, 2018

Verified Purchase

As others have mentioned, this is one of the scariest books I have read in a while. At times it felt a little too close to reality and there were points where I found myself angry at the state of current US politics (and the people involved in it) because of how easily and quickly it feels this could all come to pass.

Very well researched and contains footnotes and references with a lot of useful and educational information.

2 people found this helpful

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