- Hardcover: 312 pages
- Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (October 6, 2008)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 9780470317235
- ISBN-13: 978-0470317235
- ASIN: 047031723X
- Product Dimensions: 7.4 x 1 x 10.2 inches
- Shipping Weight: 1.6 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
- Average Customer Review: 2 customer reviews
- Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #3,685,115 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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Commodity Modeling and Pricing: Methods for Analyzing Resource Market Behavior Hardcover – October 6, 2008
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The Amazon Book Review
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From the Inside Flap
Resource commodity markets play a central role in economicdevelopment, international trade, and global economic and politicalstability. The onset of globalization and the spectacular growthand industrial development of China, India, and other SoutheastAsian countriesalong with an increased use of agriculturalcommodities for ethanol productionhave significantly added tototal resource commodity demands and caused unprecedented priceincreases. Today, the economic analysis and modeling of worldcommodity markets is more important than ever before.
Commodity Modeling and Pricing provides extensions andapplications of state-of-the-art methods for analyzing resourcecommodity behavior. Drawing from the seminal work of ProfessorWalter Labys on the development of econometric methods forforecasting commodity prices, this collection of essays featuresexpert contributors ranging from practitioners in private industry,public sector, and nongovernmental organizations to scholars inhigher educationall of whom were Labys's former students orcollaborators.
The essays are divided into four parts according to the issuesthey address. In Part I, the dynamic behavior of commodity pricesis analyzed in terms of its nonlinear chaotic and cyclicalproperties. In Part II, commodity inventory adjustments are thenintroduced to the price framework. Part III applies innovativemodeling methods to the supply and demand aspects of commoditymarkets as a multivariate equilibrating mechanism. In Part IV,these modeling efforts are expanded beyond direct market phenomenato include the interactions between commodities, other forms ofresources, and the environment. The resource commodities studiedvary among chapters but, in total, include aluminum, coal, cocoa,coffee, copper, corn/maize, cotton, crude oil, gold, lead, rice,rubber, silver, soybeans, sugar, tea, tin, water, wheat, wine,wool, and zinc.
In recent years, we have rediscovered the severe consequences ofresource exhaustion, environmental damage, and market instability.Commodity Modeling and Pricing provides a perspective for futureproblem solving and research, offering the latest availableinformation on the application of a variety of econometric,programming, and related modeling methods that would help us toanalyze, predict, and provide policy to deal with these criticaleconomic and environmental problems.
From the Back Cover
Praise for Commodity Modeling and Pricing
"It is a pleasure to see this important book in print. There isdeep knowledge concerning particular industries behind the analysisin many of these contributions. From my perspective, thecombination of strong econometrics and strong industry-basedanalysis is hard to beat."
—Frank Giarratani, Director and Professor of Economics,University of Pittsburgh
"Walter Labys arrived at the University of Nottingham soon afterI had finished a book on the predictability of stock market priceswith Oskar Morgenstern, and so I suggested that Walter apply thesame approach to the set of speculative markets involvingcommodities. The result was a huge success; many of the pricesseemed to be well approximated by random walks but plenty of otherrelationships were discovered. Commodity Modeling andPricing extends the area of study to a wider class of questionsas a great range of data and several new generations of econometrictechniques have become available. The whole area of commoditymodeling will clearly continue to expand in width and depth."
—Sir Clive W. J. Granger, University of California–SanDiego, Nobel Prize Winner in Economics–2003
"This is an impressive collection of essays applying the latestmethods for analyzing commodity market behavior. How far this fieldhas come!"
—F. Gerard Adams, Emeritus Professor, University ofPennsylvania
How to effectively analyze, model, and forecast today'scommodity markets
Commodity Modeling and Pricing offers a collection ofstudies—by some of the world's leading economists—thatwill serve as a complete guide to resource commodity behavior. Eachstudy provides state-of-the-art analysis on the modeling ofcommodity markets and prices and on the application of thesemethods to agriculture, energy, minerals, and the environment.
This book first considers the way in which commodity pricesexhibit nonlinear, cyclical, or chaotic fluctuations over time. Itthen moves on to emphasize how market disequilibrium reflected ininventory adjustments affects this price behavior. With a finebalance between theoretical and empirical research, these essayspoint to new ways in which the dynamic—if notunstable—nature of commodity markets can be dealt with, notonly in terms of individual market activity but also in terms oftheir interactions with the economy and the environment.
Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, CommodityModeling and Pricing contains the information you need to excelin this demanding environment.