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Peter Sainsbury

Crude Forecasts: Predictions, Pundits and Profits in the Commodity Casino Paperback – September 17, 2017

by Mr Peter Sainsbury (Author)

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"A highly practical book that every investor and analyst needs to read several times....shows why investors need to do their own research, and not just follow the pundits" - Samir Madani, #OOTT & Tanker Trackers "With technology, geopolitics, and economics colliding to make commodities a challenging place to invest, Peter's timely book on the folly of commodity forecasting serves as a cautionary tale and a guide to preventing us from repeating the mistakes of the past." - Chris Berry, House Mountain Partners "Essential reading for investors and executives" - Paul Hodges, International eChem This book will help you make better investment decisions in commodity markets. Find out which pundits and forecasters really know what they are talking about and track them. Understand the factors you can use to hold the 'experts' to account. Peter Sainsbury tells the story of how dairy farmers in New Zealand, petrochemical companies in the US and miners in Canada have been affected by overly optimistic views on future commodity prices. This isn't just a story of investors losing their money, but loss of communities and livelihoods and even whole economies usurped by just the expectation of a commodity boom. Central to this is the power of the forecast in driving decision-making. All too often investors and executives outsource vital thinking to others they perceive have some edge in predicting prices, without really stopping and asking why, how and what if? In Crude Forecasts: Predictions, Pundits and Profits in the Commodity Casino, Peter Sainsbury, economist, commodity investor and blogger at Materials Risk, shows how you can take back control. In these pages you'll learn:* Why incentives tell you everything about financial market pundits* What warning signs to watch out for* Forecasting principles and practice* How to be a more sophisticated consumer of financial media* What you can do to avoid your business, industry or country becoming a commodity "white elephant"* What you can do to make better investments in commodities and other financial assets. Peter Sainsbury is also the author of Commodities: 50 Things You Really Need To Know and The Winning Formula: Betting on F1. You can follow Peter Sainsbury on Twitter @petersainsbury7

Print length

187 pages
Language

English
Publication date

September 17, 2017
Dimensions

5.98 x 0.4 x 9.02 inches
ISBN-10

1976241022
ISBN-13

978-1976241024
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Editorial Reviews

About the Author

Peter Sainsbury is the author of Commodities: 50 Things You Really Need To Know and Crude Forecasts: Predictions, Pundits & Profits In The Commodity Casino and the founder of Materials Risk. Peter is ranked in the top 100 most influential economists in the world according Richtopia. Peter is an active investor in resource stocks and trades commodity futures - sugar and orange juice. He lives in Worcestershire, UK.

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Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform (September 17, 2017)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Paperback ‏ : ‎ 187 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1976241022
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1976241024
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 9.1 ounces
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.98 x 0.4 x 9.02 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #4,260,650 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #941 in Futures Trading (Books)
- #1,339 in Commodities Trading (Books)
- #1,619 in Business Planning & Forecasting (Books)

Customer Reviews:
3 ratings

About the author

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Peter Sainsbury

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Peter Sainsbury is the author of Commodities 50 Things You Really Need To Know and Crude Forecasts: Predictions, Pundits & Profits in the Commodity Casino. He is also the founder of the popular commodities market blog Materials Risk and is ranked in the top 100 economists in the UK according to the financial newspaper City A.M. He lives in Worcestershire, UK.

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Top reviews from other countries

Amazon Customer

A concise and very readable guide to the pitfalls of over reliance upon commodity price forecasting.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on January 18, 2018

Verified Purchase

A must read for all retail investors who wish to add the spice of commodity stocks to their portfolio. In this excellent follow up to his first book, Commodities: Fifty Things You Really Need To Know, Peter Sainsbury outlines the complexities of Commodity markets and the minefield surrounding interpretation of their respective investment prospects. Using real examples and multiple insights from experienced commentators from recent history, Peter outlines the pitfalls of failing to fully understand the commodity in which you are considering investment and of failing to conduct your own research rather than accepting the advice of pundits, many of whom are working to their own agenda.
There is no silver bullet and Peter takes the reader step by step through the potential pitfalls of commodity price forecasting and the economic havoc that too much reliance upon these can cause entire economies, industry sectors and private investors alike.
Peter ends with five pieces of advice for the prudent investor which, if followed, should help improve the odds of successful outcomes when investing in commodity markets.
Bernard Chase

One person found this helpful

P. Sidhu

Refreshing, Entertaining and Insightful. Recommended

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on October 18, 2017

Verified Purchase

This is a really entertaining read on the economics and psychology behind forecasting commodity prices, although it will be interesting for anyone with half an interest in economics and finance. I thought the chapter on the motivations behind forecasters and pundits was especially insightful; career risk being an ever present but largely forgotten motivation for forecasters and the tendency for forecasters not to stray too far from the herd. The book also includes some stories as to how forecasts can lead businesses and even whole countries down the wrong path, often with very negative consequences. That insight was certainly eye opening and kept my attention to the end.

One person found this helpful

H Jullien

Great intro read

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 26, 2020

Verified Purchase

If you are looking for an easy to digest overview of how people who trade or produce commodities forecast then this is a very good place to start.

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Crude Forecasts: Predictions, Pundits and Profits in the Commodity Casino Paperback – September 17, 2017

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Editorial Reviews

About the Author

Product details

About the author

Peter Sainsbury

Customer reviews

Top reviews from the United States

Top reviews from other countries

Buy new:

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