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Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis by [James Rickards]

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James Rickards

Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis Kindle Edition

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In 1971, President Nixon imposed national price controls and took the United States off the gold standard, an extreme measure intended to end an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar. Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and this time the consequences will be far worse than those that confronted Nixon.

Currency wars are one of the most destructive and feared outcomes in international economics. At best, they offer the sorry spectacle of countries' stealing growth from their trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation, and sometimes actual violence. Left unchecked, the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the panic of 2008.

Currency wars have happened before-twice in the last century alone-and they always end badly. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed. And the next crash is overdue. Recent headlines about the debasement of the dollar, bailouts in Greece and Ireland, and Chinese currency manipulation are all indicators of the growing conflict.

As James Rickards argues in Currency Wars, this is more than just a concern for economists and investors. The United States is facing serious threats to its national security, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. Greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the dollar itself.

Baffling to many observers is the rank failure of economists to foresee or prevent the economic catastrophes of recent years. Not only have their theories failed to prevent calamity, they are making the currency wars worse. The U. S. Federal Reserve has engaged in the greatest gamble in the history of finance, a sustained effort to stimulate the economy by printing money on a trillion-dollar scale. Its solutions present hidden new dangers while resolving none of the current dilemmas.

While the outcome of the new currency war is not yet certain, some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable if U.S. and world economic leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. Rickards untangles the web of failed paradigms, wishful thinking, and arrogance driving current public policy and points the way toward a more informed and effective course of action.

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Editorial Reviews

About the Author

James Rickards is a counselor, investment banker, and risk manager with over thirty years' experience in capital markets. He advises the Department of Defense, the U.S. intelligence community, and major hedge funds on global finance, and served as a facilitator of the first ever financial war games conducted by the Pentagon. A frequent guest on CNBC, CNN, Fox, C-SPAN, Bloomberg TV, and NPR, Rickards also lectures at Northwestern University and at the School of Advanced International Studies.

Visit currencywarsbook.com --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Review

“One of the most urgent books of the fall.”—Mike Allen, Politico “Let’s hope he’s wrong.”—Financial Times “Rickards . . . has written one of the scariest books I’ve read this year. Though I was tempted at first to dismiss him as alarmist, his intelligent reasoning soon convinced me that we have more to fear than fear itself. Part history, part primer and analysis, the text covers topics ranging from the “misuse of economics” to complexity theory. The pieces, although disparate, fit together snugly, as in one of those mystery jigsaw puzzles that come with clues in lieu of cover art. The picture that emerges is dark yet comprehensive and satisfying.”—Bloomberg Businessweek “Unsettling . . . fascinating . . . a thorough analysis of how nations have manipulated their currencies . . . with disastrous consequences.”—Fort Worth Star-Telegram “Buy Currency Wars if you want to learn the history and language of the global currency markets and the political economy which they support.”—Chris Whalen, Ritholtz.com “Jim Rickards highlights dangerous dynamics between national security and the international financial markets. What we assumed was firm ground under our feet is more like the narrowing point of a precipice. Our politicians, national security experts, and financial markets, each chasing carrots dangling in front of them, fail to see that they are leading America right off the edge.”—Charles A. Duelfer, former special adviser to the director of the CIA; author of Hide and Seek: The Search for Truth in Iraq “Put on your flak vest and helmet and enter the dangerous battlefield of global finance. Jim Rickards takes you through a captivating roller-coaster ride—the past, the present, and a look at the problematical future of our ongoing currency wars.”—Rear Admiral (Ret.) Stephen H. Baker, chief of staff, Fifth Fleet; recipient, Distinguished Service Medal
--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Product details

ASIN ‏ : ‎ B005GSYZRA
Publisher ‏ : ‎ Portfolio; 1st edition (November 10, 2011)
Publication date ‏ : ‎ November 10, 2011
Language ‏ : ‎ English
File size ‏ : ‎ 1553 KB
Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
Screen Reader ‏ : ‎ Supported
Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Enabled
Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Enabled
Sticky notes ‏ : ‎ On Kindle Scribe
Print length ‏ : ‎ 318 pages

Best Sellers Rank: #166,402 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
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James Rickards is the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a financial newsletter, and Director of The James Rickards Project, an inquiry into the complex dynamics of geopolitics + global capital. He is the author of The New Case for Gold (April 2016), and two New York Times best sellers, The Death of Money (2014), and Currency Wars (2011) from Penguin Random House. He is a portfolio manager, lawyer, and economist, and has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. In 1998, he was the principal negotiator of the rescue of LTCM sponsored by the Federal Reserve. His clients include institutional investors and government directorates. He is an Op-Ed contributor to the Financial Times, Evening Standard, New York Times, and Washington Post, and has been interviewed on BBC, CNN, NPR, C- SPAN, CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, and The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Rickards is a guest lecturer in globalization and finance at The Johns Hopkins University, The Kellogg School at Northwestern, and the School of Advanced International Studies. He has delivered papers on risk at Singularity University, the Applied Physics Laboratory, and the Los Alamos National Laboratory. He is an advisor on capital markets to the U.S. intelligence community, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and is on the Advisory Board of the Center on Sanctions & Illicit Finance in Washington DC. Mr. Rickards holds an LL.M. (Taxation) from the NYU School of Law; a J.D. from the University of Pennsylvania Law School; an M.A. in international economics from SAIS, and a B.A. (with honors) from Johns Hopkins. He lives in New Hampshire.

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"The time grows short to save the dollar"

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on November 28, 2013

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One of the best texts of the economics genre ever written for a general audience. A couple years ago, I read "Web of Debt: The Shocking Truth About Our Money System and How We Can Break Free", by Ellen Hodgson Brown, and I was captivated by how it walks the reader through the symbols of the "Wizard of Oz", elegantly introducing the reader to many of the problems associated with the private centralized bank that runs the United States. But after a little research, it became apparent that the book is a mixed bag, because it is infused with inaccuracies, and the alternatives it offers are problematic. While I still recommend the book to a discerning audience, it is really not appropriate reading material for a general audience because of these reasons.

What Rickards offers here is great reading, and after seeing Rickards recently speak on this subject matter on the RT television news channel the other day, it reminded me that I had not yet written a review for his book. Essentially, the author argues that currency wars are a national security concern, not just an economic or monetary concern. And greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the United States dollar. While my undergraduate economics coursework could have alerted students to a number of problems, it was only very recently that the Federal Reserve began its sustained effort to stimulate the economy by printing money on a multi-trillion-dollar scale.

This book really explains the big picture rather well, both for the present and the past, in amazingly less than 300 pages. Because the author covers quite a bit of ground, and potential readers can find summaries in many of the reviews already written, what follows are some quotes that will hopefully garner some additional interest, since in my opinion this book is a worthy read for anyone in the United States who wants to understand from whence we came as well as where the author thinks we may be going as a result of the current administration's continued actions. If you do not have time to read the entire book, read the section on growth in GDP definition at the beginning of Chapter 3 ("Reflections on a Golden Age"), the section on Monetarism, Keynesianism, and Financial Economics at the end of Chapter 9 ("The Misuse of Economics"), and Chapter 11 ("Endgame - Paper, Gold or Chaos?").

Chapter 6 ("Currency War III - 2010- "): "It is intriguing to think about how imbalances such as the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China and China's massive accumulation of U.S. government debt would have evolved under the Bretton Woods system. China's accumulation of U.S. debt would have begun the same way and there would always have been a desire to hold some amount of U.S. Treasury securities for diversification and liquidity-management reasons. But at some point, China would have asked to cash in some of its treasury securities for U.S. gold held in reserves, as was allowed under Bretton Woods. A relatively small redemption, say, $100 billion of Treasury notes, done in early 2008 when gold was about $1,000 per ounce, would have equaled 100 million ounces of gold, or about 2,840 metric tons."

"This amounts to 35 percent of the entire official gold supply of the United States. Indeed, a full redemption of all U.S. government securities by China would have wiped out the U.S. gold supply completely and left the United States with no gold and China the proud owner of over 9,000 metric tons. One can imagine Chinese naval vessels arriving in New York Harbor and a heavily armed U.S. Army convoy moving south down the Palisades Interstate Parkway from West Point to meet the vessels and load the gold on board for shipment to newly constructed vaults in Shanghai."

"No doubt such a scene would have been shocking to the American people, yet that imagined shock proves a larger point. America has, in fact, run trade deficits large enough to wipe out its gold hoard under the old rules of the game. Still, the idea of the gold standard was not to deplete nations of gold, but rather to force them to get their financial house in order long before the gold disappeared. In the absence of a gold standard and the real-time adjustments it causes, the American people seem unaware of how badly U.S. finances have actually deteriorated."

Chapter 7 ("The G20 Solution"): "Quantitative easing in its simplest form is just printing money. To create money from thin air, the Federal Reserve buys Treasury debt securities from a select group of banks called primary dealers. The primary dealers have a global base of customers, ranging from sovereign wealth funds, other central banks, pension funds and institutional investors to high-net-worth individuals. The dealers act as intermediaries between the Fed and the marketplace by underwriting Treasury auctions of new debt and making a market in existing debts."

"When the Fed wants to reduce the money supply, they sell securities to the primary dealers. The securities go to the dealers and the money paid to the Fed simply disappears. Conversely, when the Fed wants to increase the money supply, they buy securities from the dealers. The Fed takes delivery of the securities and pays the dealers with freshly printed money. The money goes into the dealers' bank accounts, where it can then support even more money creation by the banking system."

Conclusion: "As I noted at the outset, a book on currency wars is inevitably a book about the dollar and its fate. The dollar, for all its faults and weaknesses, is the pivot of the entire global system of currencies, stocks, bonds, derivatives and investments of all kinds. While all currencies by definition represent some store of value, the dollar is different. It is a store of economic value in a nation whose moral values are historically exceptional and therefore a light to the world. The debasement of the dollar cannot proceed without the debasement of those values and that exceptionalism. This book has tried to offer fair warning of the dangers ahead and be a compass to help steer away."

"Social and financial collapses have happened many times but are easily ignored or forgotten. Yet history does not forget, nor do complex systems refrain from doing what they are wont to do. Complex systems begin on a benign organizing principle and end by absorbing all available energy while destroying the system itself. Capital and currency markets are complex systems and will collapse in the end unless they are broken up, contained, compartmentalized and descaled. Currency wars are ultimately about the dollar, yet the dollar today is just a jumped-up version of a former self due to derivatives, leverage, printing and the derogation of gold. It is not past time to save it. Still, the time grows short."

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Simit Patel

Required Reading for Speculators and Monetary Scientists

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on November 10, 2012

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The short story is that I think this book is excellent. I consider it required reading -- and in fact re-reading as well -- for investors who rely on an informed macroeconomic perspective to guide their decision-making, and for those interested in the science of monetary economics.

Below are some passages from Currency Wars that I thought were especially insightful. They put forth prospective answers to many key questions that many traders will want to consider.

How Does the Global Economic Crisis Get Resolved?

"The new crisis will likely begin in the currency markets and spread quickly to stocks, bonds, and commodities. When the dollar collapses, the dollar-denominated markets will collapse too. Panic will quickly spread throughout the world. As a result, another US president, possibly Obama, will take to the airwaves and cyberspace to announce a radical plan of intervention to save the dollar from complete collapse, invoking legal authority already in place today. This new plan may even involve a return to the gold standard. If gold is used, it will be at a dramatically higher price in order ot support the bloated money supply with the fixed quantity of gold available. Americans who had invested in gold earlier will be confronted with a 90% "windfall profits" tax on their newfound wealth, imposed in the name of fairness. European and Japanese gold presently stored in New York will be confiscated and converted to use in the ervice of the New Dollar Policy. No doubt the Europeans and Japanese will be given receipts for their former gold, convertible into New Dollars at a new, higher price.

Alternatively, the president may eschew a return to gold and us an array of capital controls and global IMF money creation to reliquify and stabilize the situation.

This isn't far-fetched speculation. It has all happened before. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed."

Is Widespread Military Conflict Likely?

"A conventional military confrontation with the united States seems highly unlikely because of the United States' ability to suppress and ultimately decimate the opposing side. As a result, rival nations and transnational actors such as jihadists have increasingly developed capabilities in unconventional warfare, which can include cyberwarfare, biological or chemical weapons, other weapons of mass destruction or now, in the most unexpected twist of all, financial weapons...the costs of a financial war might be far less than the costs of an arms race and possibly be much more effective at undermining US power than a military confrontation."

How Do Currency Wars -- When Economies Compete to Devalue their Currencies -- Start?

"Currency wars begin in an atmosphere of insufficient internal growth. The country that starts down this road typically finds itself with high unemployment, low or declining growth, a weak banking sector, and deteriorating public finances. In these circumstances, it is difficult to generate growth through purely internal means and the promotion of exports through a devalued currency becomes the growth engine of last resort."

Do Currency Devaluations Help an Economy?

"A country that cheapens its currency may make final sales look cheaper when viewed from abroad but may hurt itself as more of its cheap currency is needed to purchase various inputs."

Have Currency Wars Happened Before? What Was the Outcome?

"Currency War I began in spectacular fashion in 1921 in the shadow of World War I and wound down to an inconclusive end in 1936. In round after round of devaluation and default, the major economies of the world raced to the bottom, causing massive trade disruption, lost output and wealth destruction along the way. The volatile and self-defeating nature of the international monetary system during that period makes Currency War I the ultimate cautionary tale for today as the world again confronts the challenge of massive unpayable debt."
How does China play into the Euro crisis?

"China has a vital interest in a strong Euro. The European Union surpasses the United States as China's largest trading partner. China's interest in supporting the Euro is as great or greater than its interest in maintaining the yuan peg against the dollar."

How is China affecting the gold market?

"Between 2004 and 2009, China secretly doubled its official holdings of gold. China used one of its sovereign wealth funds, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), to purchase gold covertly from dealers around the world. Since SAFE is not the same as the Chinese central bank, these purchases were off the books from the central bank's perspective."

What are the Possible Outcomes for the end of the Reign of the US Dollar?

"Taking a range of views from the conventional to the cutting-edge, we can foresee four outcomes in the prospect for the dollar -- call them The Four Horsement of the Dollar Apocalypse. In order of disruptive potential from smallest to greatest, they are: multiple reserve currencies, Special Drawing Rights, gold, and chaos."

What are Special Drawing Rights (SDR)?

"The SDR is world money, controlled by the IMF, backed by nothing, and printed at will. Once the IMF issues an SDR, it sits comfortably in the reserve accounts of the recipient like any other reserve currency."

6 people found this helpful

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Top reviews from other countries

jvm

Read this book if you want to understand what's going on

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on July 30, 2017

Verified Purchase

Since the banking crisis in 2007 and the eurozone crisis in 2010, both of which have made me poorer, I've started to take an interest in global politics and economics, and this book has really helped me. There's a brilliant interview with the author by London Real that you can watch for fee on YouTube. If you just read this book and 'the ascent of money' by Nial Ferguson you'll have a much better understanding of what's going on in the world.

If you're even remotely interested in the global economy, or want to understand what's going on in the world with regard to money this book is a great eye opener. One of the most interesting books I've ever read and I can't recommend it highly enough.

6 people found this helpful

Adrian J. Smith

A frightening book that rethinks concepts of national security

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on June 7, 2013

Verified Purchase

Currency Wars is without a shadow a doubt both a scholarly and imaginitive work. Rickards touches on a much discussed theme in modern economics, the increasing stress and viability of the dollar. In some ways this work is similar to Barry Eichengreen's Exorbitant Privilege, however Rickards looks at a more global scale of currency collapses, and provides both historical precedents, and possible scenarios in which the dollar could collapse.
Additionally, the book contains some decent critiques of economic schools of thought, such as Keynesianism, Monetarism, and Financial Economics, as well as a decent critique of complexity theory. While not simply an economic text book, Rickards provides his own critique and insights to the strength and failings of these approaches.
Currency Wars provides a decent history of monetary policy, and an ample divination of what could come if decent policy is not implemented, and mistakes of the past are not learned from.
The only criticism I have of Currency Wars is the opening. The war games introduction is too wordy, and filled with details that the readers of the book did not intend to read.
On the whole, an excellent and thought provoking book. More suited for those already familiar with economics, but accessible to all provided it is read carefully and terms are referenced.
I can only hope that this finds its way onto the desks of Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama.

One person found this helpful

Frank B

Well worth a read.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on December 29, 2015

Verified Purchase

I found this a highly readable account of some of the possible outcomes of the policies adopted by major central banks in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007/08. How likely any of these outcomes are and too what extent the book was written to be a bestseller rather than a serious study I couldn't say. Rickards' makes much of the era of the classic gold standard (1870-1914) as a period of high growth and benign deflation, both of which he seems to attribute to the gold standard. I found myself suspicious of this - the same period was one in which, in both the USA and Europe colonial expansion and the appropriation of the land of native peoples provided abundant and virtually free resources. Surely this would provide at least as good an explanation of that growth as the nature of the monetary system? It was this that left me questioning to what extent facts had been shaped to fit Rickards' argument as opposed to Rickards' argument being shaped by facts. That's not to say that the argument isn't worth listening to and thinking about. I've long believed that if a significant portion of the oil producers decided to request payment in something other than US$ and Rickards shows just how and why such a thing may happen.

3 people found this helpful

Michael Oswald

Very Interesting

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on September 11, 2013

Verified Purchase

James Rickards mind opening book reveals in one easily accessible volume the International function and Geo-political implications of fiat money. The book challenges contemporary Neo-Classical theory on the role, function and importance of currency.

To the uninitiated there is only one kind of debt, arising from individuals or organizations borrowing money from each other, yet there is another entirely different kind of debt, a debt between economic or currency regions, known as a balance of payment. In simple terms, when a country imports more than it exports, it relies on another country/region to do the work whilst it receives the benefit, this shows up in its balance of payments as a negative trade balance, i.e. the country now owes a certain amount of its currency to the surplus country. In the not so recent past, such imbalances were addressed through various Gold Standard Systems. Today we are told no such controls are necessary. For some countries this works just fine, notably the United States and Britain, but for the majority of countries it is a route to disaster, as they inevitably experience a run on their currency and need to ask the IMF and other International institutions to provide funds to bridge their balance of payments gap. We all know what happens then!

How much currency can a country create, and to what extent will this currency retain its relative value. This seems to be an interesting question.

"Currency Wars" sets out the historical changes to the International monetary system leading up to the present day. It reveals its weaknesses and speculates as to its future. It is certain that one-day change will come and the dominant world powers will need to find ways to stay competitive without relying on the dominance of their currencies and the power of their armies. The question remains, when it all comes crashing down, will it happen slowly or all of a sudden.

One person found this helpful

Shiladitya Das

Must read if you're fed up of mainstream financial news and analysis

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on December 19, 2016

Verified Purchase

Currency wars is a very good book. It gives a good historical perspective to the monetary system we find ourselves in today. It also provides a good analyss of the financial crisis. I found the sections on the impact of VAR and complex systems very interesting. All in all a very good book and would highly recommend it to anyone fed up of mainstream financial news and analysis and other bulls*** from the Keynes and monetarists schools of thought.

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