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James Rickards

Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis Hardcover – November 10, 2011

by James Rickards (Author)

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In 1971, President Nixon imposed national price controls and took the United States off the gold standard, an extreme measure intended to end an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar. Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and this time the consequences will be far worse than those that confronted Nixon.

Currency wars are one of the most destructive and feared outcomes in international economics. At best, they offer the sorry spectacle of countries' stealing growth from their trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation, and sometimes actual violence. Left unchecked, the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the panic of 2008.

Currency wars have happened before-twice in the last century alone-and they always end badly. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed. And the next crash is overdue. Recent headlines about the debasement of the dollar, bailouts in Greece and Ireland, and Chinese currency manipulation are all indicators of the growing conflict.

As James Rickards argues in Currency Wars, this is more than just a concern for economists and investors. The United States is facing serious threats to its national security, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. Greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the dollar itself.

Baffling to many observers is the rank failure of economists to foresee or prevent the economic catastrophes of recent years. Not only have their theories failed to prevent calamity, they are making the currency wars worse. The U. S. Federal Reserve has engaged in the greatest gamble in the history of finance, a sustained effort to stimulate the economy by printing money on a trillion-dollar scale. Its solutions present hidden new dangers while resolving none of the current dilemmas.

While the outcome of the new currency war is not yet certain, some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable if U.S. and world economic leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. Rickards untangles the web of failed paradigms, wishful thinking, and arrogance driving current public policy and points the way toward a more informed and effective course of action.

Print length

304 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Portfolio
Publication date

November 10, 2011
Reading age

18 years and up
Dimensions

6.31 x 1 x 9.31 inches
ISBN-10

1591844495
ISBN-13

978-1591844495
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Editorial Reviews

Review

“One of the most urgent books of the fall.”

—Mike Allen, Politico

“Let’s hope he’s wrong.”

—Financial Times

“Rickards . . . has written one of the scariest books I’ve read this year. Though I was tempted at first to dismiss him as alarmist, his intelligent reasoning soon convinced me that we have more to fear than fear itself. Part history, part primer and analysis, the text covers topics ranging from the “misuse of economics” to complexity theory. The pieces, although disparate, fit together snugly, as in one of those mystery jigsaw puzzles that come with clues in lieu of cover art. The picture that emerges is dark yet comprehensive and satisfying.”

—Bloomberg Businessweek

“Unsettling . . . fascinating . . . a thorough analysis of how nations have manipulated their currencies . . . with disastrous consequences.”

—Fort Worth Star-Telegram

“Buy Currency Wars if you want to learn the history and language of the global currency markets and the political economy which they support.”

—Chris Whalen, Ritholtz.com

“Jim Rickards highlights dangerous dynamics between national security and the international financial markets. What we assumed was firm ground under our feet is more like the narrowing point of a precipice. Our politicians, national security experts, and financial markets, each chasing carrots dangling in front of them, fail to see that they are leading America right off the edge.”

—Charles A. Duelfer, former special adviser to the director of the CIA; author of Hide and Seek: The Search for Truth in Iraq

“Put on your flak vest and helmet and enter the dangerous battlefield of global finance. Jim Rickards takes you through a captivating roller-coaster ride—the past, the present, and a look at the problematical future of our ongoing currency wars.”

—Rear Admiral (Ret.) Stephen H. Baker, chief of staff, Fifth Fleet; recipient, Distinguished Service Medal

About the Author

James Rickards is a counselor, investment banker, and risk manager with over thirty years' experience in capital markets. He advises the Department of Defense, the U.S. intelligence community, and major hedge funds on global finance, and served as a facilitator of the first ever financial war games conducted by the Pentagon. A frequent guest on CNBC, CNN, Fox, C-SPAN, Bloomberg TV, and NPR, Rickards also lectures at Northwestern University and at the School of Advanced International Studies.

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Product details

Publisher : Portfolio; 1st edition (November 10, 2011)
Language : English
Hardcover : 304 pages
ISBN-10 : 1591844495
ISBN-13 : 978-1591844495
Reading age : 18 years and up
Item Weight : 1.1 pounds
Dimensions : 6.31 x 1 x 9.31 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #99,164 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #75 in Commodities Trading (Books)
- #112 in Money & Monetary Policy (Books)
- #115 in International Economics (Books)

Customer Reviews:
1,057 ratings

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Top reviews from the United States

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Readable, Which is Huge

Reviewed in the United States on January 3, 2017

Verified Purchase

This book was fascinating. It was totally outside my area of understanding, but after reading the book, I learned a lot about the process and influence of a currency in this world. The book gives you a brief history of the role of currency, and goes into how people wage war by using the ups and downs of the valuation of a certain currency of a country. The valuation of a currency has a huge impact on the health of a economy. The book talks about the role of gold in the process too. Years ago, all currency was mostly attached to the wealth of gold that a nation had. But recently, this has been separated. There have been a couple of modern currency wars, and this using leads to a zero sum game. The book was written before the quantitative easing, so the author writes about this process, and explains some of the ramifications of this policy. He has a negative view of the results that could happen. So far, though, it seemed to work, but it is more of a long game to see the final results. Moving forward, China is going to play a large part in future wars, because of the manipulation of the yuan. This will be interesting to see. On an interesting note, the author is a good friend of one of the members in Castle Rock. One of the cool things of being at Castle Rock is the world famous people you get to minister too. This is not for everyone, but you need a certain level of money systems knowledge to understand the book, btu the author does a good job of making it accesible.

22 people found this helpful

Helpful

Skubalon12

This is one of Rickards' better books. It is a good intro to a ...

Reviewed in the United States on September 21, 2017

Verified Purchase

This is one of Rickards' better books. It is a good intro to a concept rarely discussed; that is world monetary history in terms of the 'war-like' interaction of nations using currency devaluations to gain an upper hand. It's also a bit more than that as he uses his background in trading and economics to theorize a variety of scenarios that could threaten the US in currency markets, gold, derivative markets and others. I found the reading to be attainable and not too dry for the lay reader.

This all being said, the weaknesses of the book really lie in sections where Rickards goes beyond reporting history to promulgating ideas of a coming collapse, much of which is based on some assumptions he makes about the importance of gold and how nations will respond to the slightest hiccup in confidence in fiat currencies like the US dollar. For example, the opening chapters are actually pretty interesting as the author lets us in on the first ever "financial war games" exercise sponsored by the US government (he got to play a major role due to research he'd done on systematic weaknesses in financial markets). The funny thing is the author tells of how he basically rigs the exercise to go in the direction he wants by commiserating with a friend over dinner (who is assigned to an opposing team) to push for a coordinated interest in launching a new gold-backed currency. The plan initially backfires and is almost not allowed by moderators until Rickards rallies support, then sells all of his team's gold to the opponent in a sort of self-sacrifice effort to make his friend's plan work after all! If anything, it shows how fragile world economics are at present where a strategic blunder by one nation could turn into absolute turmoil if other nations also make small mistakes in response.

The meat of the book is in the three sections on Currency War 1, 2 and 3. It is interesting to get a perspective also on the G20 conferences and responses to the latest financial crisis. His later chapters on the IMF and their use of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) is also enlightening and a good intro to learn more on this topic that might grow considerably in importance. I think the chapter on the hypothetical of returning to a gold standard and its implications should be taken with a grain of salt. What I did appreciate though was his response to Ben Bernanke's research on the role of gold in worsening the Great Depression. This is an important discussion he left out of his book The New Case for Gold . All in all, its a good quick read and I think you'll enjoy it.

15 people found this helpful

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One dimensional

Reviewed in the United States on August 4, 2014

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This book works as a general overview but otherwise extremely simplistic in both the explanations of a handful of historic events and what is going on.

As a result, the offered solutions are also equally impractical that overlook their possible failures, side effects and transitional implementation problems. More importantly, the solutions offered are naive in that there is little attention paid to how the global economy can get there without all agreeing to them being the best way because of discussions like in this book. Similarly, the author's discussions on possible consequences of current policies are one dimensional. Overall, the book could work as a good overview for non-professionals but this is far from a path-breaking or detailed work.

The positives of the book are in the easy to understand and fluid descriptions of events of the thirties and the Seventies. However, when a similar treatment is applied to the current affairs, it appears devoid of the effects of many other mega-trends.

14 people found this helpful

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Amazon Customer

well written in layman terms

Reviewed in the United States on July 24, 2016

Verified Purchase

The writer does a good job of describing how nations use monetary policy to conduct war, in a non traditional sense of the word. While some gains made by such policies are short term and may end badly for all players involved, he does highlight that some nations actually have the chance of ruining other nations without firing a single shot. The writer gives historical and real life examples of currency manipulation and their effects, and how a possible future war can be fought. He does a good job of explaining why irresponsible monetary policies used by politicians for short term gains, are likely to cause the next big crash as well as the potential role of gold to restore confidence in a monetary system and achieve stability.

The author explains well that in recent decades, global economy grew in complexity due to globalization, and how central banks and short term political decisions, endanger us all and pave the way to the next economic crisis.

7 people found this helpful

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Top reviews from other countries

jvm

Read this book if you want to understand what's going on

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on July 30, 2017

Verified Purchase

Since the banking crisis in 2007 and the eurozone crisis in 2010, both of which have made me poorer, I've started to take an interest in global politics and economics, and this book has really helped me. There's a brilliant interview with the author by London Real that you can watch for fee on YouTube. If you just read this book and 'the ascent of money' by Nial Ferguson you'll have a much better understanding of what's going on in the world.

If you're even remotely interested in the global economy, or want to understand what's going on in the world with regard to money this book is a great eye opener. One of the most interesting books I've ever read and I can't recommend it highly enough.

7 people found this helpful

Frank B

Well worth a read.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on December 29, 2015

Verified Purchase

I found this a highly readable account of some of the possible outcomes of the policies adopted by major central banks in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007/08. How likely any of these outcomes are and too what extent the book was written to be a bestseller rather than a serious study I couldn't say. Rickards' makes much of the era of the classic gold standard (1870-1914) as a period of high growth and benign deflation, both of which he seems to attribute to the gold standard. I found myself suspicious of this - the same period was one in which, in both the USA and Europe colonial expansion and the appropriation of the land of native peoples provided abundant and virtually free resources. Surely this would provide at least as good an explanation of that growth as the nature of the monetary system? It was this that left me questioning to what extent facts had been shaped to fit Rickards' argument as opposed to Rickards' argument being shaped by facts. That's not to say that the argument isn't worth listening to and thinking about. I've long believed that if a significant portion of the oil producers decided to request payment in something other than US$ and Rickards shows just how and why such a thing may happen.

2 people found this helpful

Adrian J. Smith

A frightening book that rethinks concepts of national security

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on June 6, 2013

Verified Purchase

Currency Wars is without a shadow a doubt both a scholarly and imaginitive work. Rickards touches on a much discussed theme in modern economics, the increasing stress and viability of the dollar. In some ways this work is similar to Barry Eichengreen's Exorbitant Privilege, however Rickards looks at a more global scale of currency collapses, and provides both historical precedents, and possible scenarios in which the dollar could collapse.
Additionally, the book contains some decent critiques of economic schools of thought, such as Keynesianism, Monetarism, and Financial Economics, as well as a decent critique of complexity theory. While not simply an economic text book, Rickards provides his own critique and insights to the strength and failings of these approaches.
Currency Wars provides a decent history of monetary policy, and an ample divination of what could come if decent policy is not implemented, and mistakes of the past are not learned from.
The only criticism I have of Currency Wars is the opening. The war games introduction is too wordy, and filled with details that the readers of the book did not intend to read.
On the whole, an excellent and thought provoking book. More suited for those already familiar with economics, but accessible to all provided it is read carefully and terms are referenced.
I can only hope that this finds its way onto the desks of Ben Bernanke and Barack Obama.

Michael Oswald

Very Interesting

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 11, 2013

Verified Purchase

James Rickards mind opening book reveals in one easily accessible volume the International function and Geo-political implications of fiat money. The book challenges contemporary Neo-Classical theory on the role, function and importance of currency.

To the uninitiated there is only one kind of debt, arising from individuals or organizations borrowing money from each other, yet there is another entirely different kind of debt, a debt between economic or currency regions, known as a balance of payment. In simple terms, when a country imports more than it exports, it relies on another country/region to do the work whilst it receives the benefit, this shows up in its balance of payments as a negative trade balance, i.e. the country now owes a certain amount of its currency to the surplus country. In the not so recent past, such imbalances were addressed through various Gold Standard Systems. Today we are told no such controls are necessary. For some countries this works just fine, notably the United States and Britain, but for the majority of countries it is a route to disaster, as they inevitably experience a run on their currency and need to ask the IMF and other International institutions to provide funds to bridge their balance of payments gap. We all know what happens then!

How much currency can a country create, and to what extent will this currency retain its relative value. This seems to be an interesting question.

"Currency Wars" sets out the historical changes to the International monetary system leading up to the present day. It reveals its weaknesses and speculates as to its future. It is certain that one-day change will come and the dominant world powers will need to find ways to stay competitive without relying on the dominance of their currencies and the power of their armies. The question remains, when it all comes crashing down, will it happen slowly or all of a sudden.

Shiladitya Das

Must read if you're fed up of mainstream financial news and analysis

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on December 19, 2016

Verified Purchase

Currency wars is a very good book. It gives a good historical perspective to the monetary system we find ourselves in today. It also provides a good analyss of the financial crisis. I found the sections on the impact of VAR and complex systems very interesting. All in all a very good book and would highly recommend it to anyone fed up of mainstream financial news and analysis and other bulls*** from the Keynes and monetarists schools of thought.

One person found this helpful

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