- File Size: 1005 KB
- Print Length: 336 pages
- Page Numbers Source ISBN: 0743274717
- Publisher: Simon & Schuster (September 15, 2006)
- Publication Date: August 29, 2006
- Sold by: Simon and Schuster Digital Sales Inc
- Language: English
- ASIN: B000JMKS7E
- Text-to-Speech: Enabled
- Word Wise: Enabled
- Lending: Not Enabled
- Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #998,592 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
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The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall Kindle Edition
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-- Strobe Talbott, president of the Brookings Institution, former deputy secretary of state
"In one simple graphic, arguably the world's most pressing geopolitical challenge."
-- The Economist
"In The J Curve, Ian Bremmer (Tom Friedman with a Gladwellian streak) argues that nations follow a predictable path to democracy, one we should consider before invading them."
-- New York magazine
"The J Curve provides both policymakers and business strategists with an innovative set of conceptual tools for understanding political risk in rapidly changing societies, tools that integrate political, economic, and security perspectives in new and creative ways."
-- Francis Fukuyama, author of The End of History and the Last Man
"This book is a must-read, and not only for its insight into foreign policy. Individual institutions can be assessed on the J curve as well and their evolution similarly evaluated. A stunning analysis, notable for its depth, scope, and clarity."
-- Vinton G. Cerf, Chief Internet Evangelist, Google
"Thought-provoking...a welcome return to strategies that offer a more sustainable path for the future."
-- James Steinberg, Austin-American Statesman
-- Thomas Pickering, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations
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I like the recommendation given by Ian on handling North Korea, although it is going to be difficult to carry out the same, which has also been outlined by Ian. Although Kim Jong Il is no more and his son has taken over (as was correctly identified by Ian in the Cuba case) , however, it still remains on the shorter end of the J curve , with all the insulations from external wold. However, it looks seemingly poised to slip down the curve.
Ian's analysis of Russia and China is quite spot on and gives a good insights. Most of these have been encountered by us during various interactions. China's dilemma is growing by the day. The recent events of Hong Kong is quite expected, but what is more concerning is the declining growth rates.
The write up on Saudi Arabia is also interesting, especially in light of the falling oil prices. Lets wait and watch.
I will keenly look forward to the next edition of this book from Ian
Bremmer makes abundantly clear that stable governance is not in itself a good thing, but simply that the governing persons or institutions have remained unchanged for a period of time. In the same way, he sees `openness' that is the willingness of a country to embrace globalization including international trade and communications as a mixed blessing in that outside influences in some countries could produce high levels of political instability. In the course of doing case studies to support his concept, Bremmer provides some particularly insightful thoughts on Russia and China which demonstrate he has indeed thought about this concept very carefully.
The "J" curve graph is undoubtedly a useful tool especially for determining the levels and kinds of risks involved in international capital investment, joint ventures, and overseas manufacturing. It is also one of the tools that the makers of foreign policy should apply to their arcane business. Still this book is a long way from being the definitive concept for understanding the incredibly complex and dynamic phenomenon of Globalization. It is one more piece, all be it an important piece, in a really hard jigsaw puzzle.