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Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists First Edition

by Joel Best (Author)

4.5 78 ratings

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Does the number of children gunned down double each year? Does anorexia kill 150,000 young women annually? Do white males account for only a sixth of new workers? Startling statistics shape our thinking about social issues. But all too often, these numbers are wrong. This book is a lively guide to spotting bad statistics and learning to think critically about these influential numbers. Damned Lies and Statistics is essential reading for everyone who reads or listens to the news, for students, and for anyone who relies on statistical information to understand social problems.

Joel Best bases his discussion on a wide assortment of intriguing contemporary issues that have garnered much recent media attention, including abortion, cyberporn, homelessness, the Million Man March, teen suicide, the U.S. census, and much more. Using examples from the New York Times, the Washington Post, and other major newspapers and television programs, he unravels many fascinating examples of the use, misuse, and abuse of statistical information.

In this book Best shows us exactly how and why bad statistics emerge, spread, and come to shape policy debates. He recommends specific ways to detect bad statistics, and shows how to think more critically about "stat wars," or disputes over social statistics among various experts. Understanding this book does not require sophisticated mathematical knowledge; Best discusses the most basic and most easily understood forms of statistics, such as percentages, averages, and rates.

This accessible book provides an alternative to either naively accepting the statistics we hear or cynically assuming that all numbers are meaningless. It shows how anyone can become a more intelligent, critical, and empowered consumer of the statistics that inundate both the social sciences and our media-saturated lives.

ISBN-10

9780520219786
ISBN-13

978-0520219786
Edition

First Edition
Publisher

University of California Press
Publication date

May 8, 2001
Language

English
Dimensions

5.74 x 0.81 x 8.6 inches
Print length

190 pages
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Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

When it comes to thinking about statistics, there are four kinds of people: awestruck, naive, cynical, and critical. According to sociologist Joel Best, the vast majority of people are naive (yes, you too probably suffer from a mild case of innumeracy), and the result is mutant statistics, guesswork, and poor policy decisions. "Bad statistics live on," writes Best in this highly accessible book, "they take on lives of their own." Take this one: a psychologist's estimate that perhaps 6 percent of priests were at some point sexually attracted to young people was transformed through a chain of errors into the "fact" that 6 percent of priests were pedophiles. Then there was the one about eating disorders. An original estimate that 150,000 women were anorexic, made by concerned activists, mutated into 150,000 women dying from the disorder annually (the truth: about 70 women a year). But these two mutant statistics have been published and passed along as facts for years, enduring long after the truth has been pointed out.

In an effort to turn people into critical thinkers, Best presents three questions to ask about all statistics and the four basic sources of bad ones. He shows how good statistics go bad; why comparing statistics from different time periods, groups, etc. is akin to mixing apples and oranges; and why surveys do little to clarify people's feelings about complex social issues. Random samples, it turns out, are rarely random enough. He also explains what all the hoopla is over how the poverty line is measured and the census is counted. What is the "dark figure"? How many men were really at the Million Man March? How is it possible for the average income per person to rise at the same time the average hourly wage is falling? And how do you discern the truth behind stat wars? Learn it all here before you rush to judgment over the next little nugget of statistics-based truth you read. --Lesley Reed

From Publishers Weekly

Who really said, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics" Mark Twain or Benjamin Disraeli? Best, professor of sociology at the University of Delaware and author of several books, including Random Violence, settles the question once and for all: Disraeli (whom Twain credits for his use of the remark in his autobiography). The quote's misattribution is similar to the twisted course statistics often take as they "mutate" into bar-chart monsters with slim if any relation to the original numbers or reality. For instance, a few years ago it was estimated that 150,000 American women are anorexic. Somehow, this mutated into an erroneous if not dangerous statistic: 150,000 women die annually from anorexia. Since only about 55,500 American women between 15 and 44 (the age range for most cases of anorexia) die from all causes each year, this number challenges common sense and the ability of reporters to question what they write about. But it has become a frequently cited, "authoritative" figure that's hard to dispute. Best explains in untechnical language important statistical concepts like "dark figures," "false positives" and "false negatives," and how statisticians often err in comparing dissimilar groups (e.g., test scores of American high school students to those of Europeans, with their multitrack systems of secondary education). He has an annoying habit of italicizing words and phrases to emphasize a point, and he conflates "activists" and "advocates" (academic writers' favorite bogeymen as purveyors of suspect statistics), but these are minor issues. This informative and well-written little book will be a particularly worthwhile addition to libraries' collections and will help all readers become savvier and more critical news consumers.

From Booklist

One intriguing contention in Best's counsel on how not to be snowed by statistics is that statistics actually create social problems. Only after someone measures the extent of a predicament and trumpets the findings does society decide it has a problem. Take anorexia, of which 150,000 young women were said to die each year. Unfortunately, the statistic involved in that case was bad, a misrepresentation of an estimate that 150,000 may suffer from anorexia. Such mangling is just one, if often the most dramatic, way of making statistics bad that Best wants readers to watch out for. Others are poor definition of what is to be measured, sampling that inaccurately reflects the constituents of what is measured, and guessing instead of measuring. Using numbers tossed about in major controversies, such as Kinsey's 10 percent figure for the proportion of Americans who are homosexuals, Best shows how to spot all those ways of producing bad statistics. And before you critique the numbers, he says, assess their sources for trustworthiness. Invaluable counsel for good citizenship. Ray Olson
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved

Review

"The narrative flows easily, and all the points are driven home with engaging examples from real life. I found Best's book a delight. Always engaging, it is accessible to a lay reader, yet will reward the expert; the examples it gives could enrich both a primary schoolroom and a university lecture hall."--"Nature

From the Inside Flap

"[An] absolutely fascinating and sobering quest into the fantastic differences between the world as it is and the world as it is portrayed in the statistics the media use. . . .This book is simply a must."Nachman Ben-Yehuda, author of The Masada Myth

"Best is our leading authority on social problems today. His detective work in exposing the spurious use of statistics is essential to constructive social science. No one who speaks for the public welfare can ignore his powerful work."Jonathan B. Imber, Editor-in-Chief, Society

"Joel Best is at it again. In Damned Lies and Statistics, he shows how statistics are manipulated, mismanaged, misrepresented, and massaged by officials and other powerful groups to promote their agendas. He is a master at examining taken-for-granted "facts" and debunking them through careful sociological scrutiny."Patricia Adler, author of Peer Power

"A real page turner. Best is the John Grisham of sociology!"James Holstein, author of The New Language of Qualitative Method

"In our era, numbers are as much a staple of political debates as stories. And just as stories so often turn into fables, so Best shows that we often believe the most implausible of numbers--to the detriment of us all."Peter Reuter, co-author of Drug War Heresies: Learning from Other Vices,Times and Places

From the Back Cover

"[An] absolutely fascinating and sobering quest into the fantastic differences between the world as it is and the world as it is portrayed in the statistics the media use. . . .This book is simply a must."--Nachman Ben-Yehuda, author of "The Masada Myth

"Best is our leading authority on social problems today. His detective work in exposing the spurious use of statistics is essential to constructive social science. No one who speaks for the public welfare can ignore his powerful work."--Jonathan B. Imber, Editor-in-Chief, "Society

"Joel Best is at it again. In "Damned Lies and Statistics, he shows how statistics are manipulated, mismanaged, misrepresented, and massaged by officials and other powerful groups to promote their agendas. He is a master at examining taken-for-granted "facts" and debunking them through careful sociological scrutiny."--Patricia Adler, author of "Peer Power

"A real page turner. Best is the John Grisham of sociology!"--James Holstein, author of "The New Language of Qualitative Method

"In our era, numbers are as much a staple of political debates as stories. And just as stories so often turn into fables, so Best shows that we often believe the most implausible of numbers--to the detriment of us all."--Peter Reuter, co-author of "Drug War Heresies: Learning from Other Vices, Times and Places

About the Author

Joel Best is Professor and Chair of Sociology and Criminal Justice at the University of Delaware and author of Random Violence (California, 1999), among other books.

Product details

ASIN ‏ : ‎ 0520219783
Publisher ‏ : ‎ University of California Press; First Edition (May 8, 2001)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 190 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 9780520219786
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0520219786
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 2.08 ounces
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.74 x 0.81 x 8.6 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #1,078,308 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #933 in Statistics (Books)
- #1,576 in Probability & Statistics (Books)
- #3,517 in Popular Culture in Social Sciences

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4.5 78 ratings

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Peter Lorenzi

Nice, tight treatment of statistics as a social activity

Reviewed in the United States on October 9, 2001

Verified Purchase

Are ten percent of Americans gay? Is the white male in the work force rapidly becoming a minority? Are 150,000 young American women dying each year from anorexia?
Joel Best clearly answers "no" to each of these three questions and, more importantly, shows why many people would say "yes". His point is that descriptive statistics are the product of a social activity, not just a representation of society. Social advocacy causes people to collect the data that they feel will best support their preconceived notions: They talk to unrepresentative groups. They start to collect new measures and then wonder why the "statistics" have grown since ten years earlier (when they weren't much -- if at all -- measured). They multiply erroneous assumptions. They mutate data. And the press and other publications carry the mutations forward.
This book offers plenty of illustrations of intentions run amok. Many of the reports provide useful information for a classroom lecture on the need to discern if a person is "speaking rot", as Harold Macmillan once said was the primary purpose of an education.
A good, crisp 171 pages in length, it is absent discussion of the more difficult inferential statistics and, as a result, it is easy to understand by the lay person.

59 people found this helpful

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Kindle Customer

Untangling the few facts from the various fictions

Reviewed in the United States on June 29, 2003

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This book delves into a few of the difficulties an individual would face if he or she tried to get an accurate count of and ultimately make conclusions about a phenomenon. Best gives the reader plenty of examples from the social sciences which demonstrate some of the problems encountered when trying to describe, measure, and ultimately make conclusions about various issues.
Best adequately picks up the subject matter just before Darrell Huff's timeless text, How to Lie with Statistics, begins. Like Huff, Best argues that people have incentives to put numbers in front of us (Huff refers to this as axe-grinding), and it behooves us to know who is putting the statistic in front of us, why they chose to put this statistic before us, and most importantly, just how they derived this statistic.
Because proponents (and opponents) of an issue, whom Best describes as 'Advocates', can control the way a statistic is generated and presented, we must closely scrutinize the numbers before us so that we can 'untangle the few facts from the various fictions'. Toward this end, the book gives the reader some very helpful questions he or she can ask when attempting to interpret a descriptive (summary) statistic.
The practical utility of Best's text is not solely limited to issues in the social sciences. One could easily apply Best's argument to, for example, the ongoing environmental debate. As such, this book is a vital component in developing critical thinking skills that can be applied in all areas both personal and professional.
Finally, although this text focuses exclusively on descriptive statistics, limiting itself to contentious and controversial topics in the social sciences, readers should take note that Mr. Best is not presenting a truly original and comprehensive treatment of the subject matter. For example, David S. Moore, author of the text Statistics, Concepts and Controversies, provides a concise, yet rigorous, entertaining and accessible treatment of the same subject matter- including a wider range of examples culled from the fields of education, social and medical sciences, all in the first fifty pages of his text.

16 people found this helpful

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SouleStatistics

Great for everyone and an excellent resource for AP Stats classes

Reviewed in the United States on January 14, 2011

Verified Purchase

I heard about this book when I was AP Stats trained and have found it to be a great resource for easy to read and relate examples in my classroom. My high school students have been able to understand more difficult topics after I have used some of the scenarios from the book because they have heard similar rhetoric as they have grown up. If nothing else, each one agrees that after hearing me read excerpts from this title, they will each be better aware of the distortions out there and will not believe everything they hear. I highly recommend it for anyone who reads and/ or follows the news and wants to be able to separate fact from fiction. If you wish to remain a blind follower of the crowd, don't bother to read this book!

One person found this helpful

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J. Adams

Required reading

Reviewed in the United States on September 1, 2004

Verified Purchase

This book should be required reading for all students in high school or college. Joel Best has done a great job of exposing the fact that most reporters today are either lazy or biased in covering most of the news today that involves the use of statistics. There are many examples in this book of how statistics are manipulated, skewed or just plain invented out of thin air to support a position of many advocacy groups. While Best goes into some of the "mechanics" of how statistics are misunderstood, he does a great job of exposing the truth about how public policy and opinion are shaped without a full understanding of what the issues really involve.

12 people found this helpful

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Y. S.

Fabulous!

Reviewed in the United States on May 1, 2017

Verified Purchase

Great book. Many people are innumerate. More examples would be great. For example, some politicians frequently provide irrelevant examples; Rudy Giuliani frequently quotes that 94% of crimes on blacks are committed by other blacks, when people suggest that whenever blacks encounter police officers there is a significantly higher chance of getting killed (shot, choked, etc.) if the police officer is white.

2 people found this helpful

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Top reviews from other countries

B. Kjosnes

Good discussion but not entirely objective

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 21, 2012

Verified Purchase

This book absolutely raises an interesting discussion, in regard to how much we can trust statistics.

In the discussion different relevant issues is raised in regard to validity and reliability of the data.

It is helpful that it also discuss potential conflicts of interests, and the necessity of comparing an apple with an apple.

However to believe that this book is entirely objective is an utopi, but then which human can be entirely objective?

mary lorrimer

One Star

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on October 24, 2017

Verified Purchase

rubbish theory

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