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Deep Future: The Next 100,000 Years of Life on Earth Hardcover – March 15, 2011
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A bold, far-reaching look at how our actions will decide the planet’s future for millennia to come.
Imagine a planet where North American and Eurasian navies are squaring off over shipping lanes through an acidified, ice-free Arctic. Centuries later, their northern descendants retreat southward as the recovering sea freezes over again. And later still, future nations plan how to avert an approaching Ice Age... by burning what remains of our fossil fuels.
These are just a few of the events that are likely to befall Earth and human civilization in the next 100,000 years. And it will be the choices we make in this century that will affect that future more than those of any previous generation. We are living at the dawn of the Age of Humans; the only question is how long that age will last.
Few of us have yet asked, “What happens after global warming?” Drawing upon the latest, groundbreaking works of a handful of climate visionaries, Deep Future helps us look beyond 2100 a.d. to the next hundred millennia of life on Earth.
Amazon Exclusive: A Conversation Between Bill McKibben and Curt Stager
Bill McKibben is the author of Eaarth: Making a Life on a Tough New Planet.
Bill McKibben: How'd you come to worry about this global warming stuff in the first place?
Curt Stager: When your book, The End of Nature, first came out, I already knew about global warming but wasn't very worried about it yet. I'm a paleoclimatologist, so I was used to thinking about huge climatic changes of the distant past, and I also wasn't convinced by what was then the available evidence that humans are driving most of today's trend. But now so many excellent studies clearly demonstrate our central role in the warming of the last 30-40 years that I've moved on from "is it really happening" mode to "what does it mean" and "what can we do about it?" Another factor was a project that you asked me to do in support of one of your articles several years ago - to study the weather records in our home region in and around northern New York and Vermont. The latest data show that much of this area is actually warming faster than the global average, and ice stays on our lakes two weeks less in an average winter than it did a century ago. Because of all this, I suppose you could say that I'm a "reformed climate skeptic" now.
Bill McKibben: What kind of timescales do we need to be thinking on to really understand what's happening?
Curt Stager: We've got to expand our view of this issue a thousand-fold to really grasp it. According to the latest research, much of the heat-trapping carbon dioxide we release during our lifetimes will linger in the air not just for centuries but for tens of thousands of years, long enough to affect future ice ages.
Curt Stager: Eaarth is one of the most amazing book titles I've ever seen; in a single word it beautifully captures the essence of what you're trying to tell us about our influences on the planet. How did you come by it?
Bill McKibben: Well, I wanted a way to get across the idea that we're already living on an altered planet. Not as altered as it's going to be, but--for people my age, the iconic image of our planet was that first photo back from the Apollo spacecraft. And the world does not look like that any more. A lot less white up top! Somehow we have to figure out how to get the message across that global warming is not a problem for the future, it's a desperate crisis already.
Bill McKibben: Scientists are forever struggling to communicate effectively with the general public. You're a whiz at it, as this book, and your work in places like National Geographic, make clear. What advice would you give your colleagues?
Curt Stager: That's a fine compliment coming from a master wordsmith like yourself, but it's particularly nice to hear in my case because when I first started my scientific career, back in the 1980s, communicating with the public was openly frowned upon. Nowadays I'm glad to see that it's much more widely accepted, even encouraged, and there are many great opportunities for scientists to be trained in such things. I was fortunate enough to attend a public communications workshop sponsored by the National Science Foundation, for example. But don't be fooled, you science types; there's a lot more to writing effectively for the public than you may think. When it's done properly it appears smooth and natural, but that's not because it's easy; it's a sign of skill and effort. Pay this craft the respect it deserves and learn from people who know what they're doing, then go out and really earn your grants by letting us all know how you spent our tax dollars!
Curt Stager: You do a good job of keeping up with the latest developments in climate research even though you're not a professional scientist. Do you have any advice in that regard for non-science types who are trying to wade through the information jungle in search of current, reliable information about climate change?
Bill McKibben: Like any other huge field, you need some guides--picking someone like Jim Hansen who's been right again and again seems like a good strategy. You need to keep abreast of the important science as it develops. And you need to find some journalists who have paid attention for a long time: Bryan Walsh at Time, Andy Revkin at the New York Times, and so forth. But the trick is not to be too caught up in the details, and keep your eye on the main current: the debate about whether we're warming the planet is no longer interesting. What's interesting is what we're going to do about it.
A Kirkus Reviews Best Nonfiction Book of the Year
“Amid all the ranting, confusing, and contradicting books on climate change, at last here's one that does something truly useful: Clearly and engagingly, scientist Curt Stager guides us back into the atmosphere's history, letting us compare it to the present and draw informed ideas about what to expect in the future. It's heartening to know that he expects us to have one.”
--Alan Weisman, author, The World Without Us
“Deep Future is a richly informative and deeply persuasive book -- one that will be relevant for generations.”
--Elizabeth Kolbert, author of Field Notes from a Catastrophe
“Deep Future is like one of Jared Diamond’s magisterial accounts, except set in the future, not the past.”
--Bill McKibben, author of The End of Nature and Eaarth
“A highly entertaining, carefully balanced, and deeply sobering look at our climate future.”
--William F. Ruddiman, author of Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum
“Fascinating and measured - at last someone is taking the long view.”
--Mark Lynas, author of Six Degrees
“This intriguing and thought-provoking view of the far future is an essential read for all interested in the full force of climate change. ”
--Paul Andrew Mayewski, Director of the Climate Change Institute, and author of The Ice Chronicles
"A probing exploration of the impact of climate change over geological time. ... Essential reading."
--Kirkus Reviews (starred review)
"A thoughtful, if controversial, approach to an over-heated subject."
"Deep Future is a clear, concise, and thought provoking work, one that takes a refreshingly frank look at the science behind global warming and, more importantly, what is coming next. In a field where hyperbolic claims and bitter skepticism prevail, the clarity and unflappability of Stager’s account is like a breath of fresh, slightly heated air."
--The Faster Times
"Maintaining a casual style and providing vivid metaphors, he makes his account entertaining and easy for nontechnical readers to understand."
Author interviews, book reviews, editors picks, and more. Read it now
Top customer reviews
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Curt Stager does a great job of providing the general reader with a point of view that is refreshingly long-term and balanced as opposed to the short-term, more alarmist predictions that we are bombarded with daily. He does this with objective arguments ("just the facts, ma'am") that are based on scientific research, quantitative data, and related models that show how climate cycles have historically worked over much longer geologic time frames, and for the first time ever, how activity during the anthropocene period (a newly coined term that describes the period of human impact beginning just a few hundred years ago) will in fact influence future climate change.
His message is both scary and optimistic as he points out that we humans can now, for the first time ever, impact future climate change through our activities. Natural systems and quite possibly humans will survive these changes, albeit in different forms than we have today. Stager calmly points out that it is normal and not unusual for species to come and go over time, and furthermore, that these changes will likely occur gradually enough to allow us to respond with sufficient notice.
The important distinction between "climate" and "weather" is clearly explained in this book, and for the general reader is fundamental to understanding how the human impact on climate change will be felt going forward. This is an important read for those who are trying to decipher the available global climate change data and interpret the various competing messages from those who are promoting conflicting positions.
Stager's message is delivered in a clear and highly readable style, and will most certainly inform and motivate you as well as provide you with a sense of perspective and hope for the future. I highly recommend this book.
Lucian Spataro, Jr., Ph.D., author of The Long Ride: The Record Setting Journey by Horse Across the American Landscape
Further, the author attempts to mollify the reader about the rapidly approaching impacts of global warming with such patently absurd suggestions that 'at least people living in Northern Alaska will have lower heating bills!' He also suggests that the fishing in the Arctic Ocean will also be much improved, forgetting all the while that the FINEST of fishing grounds, those thought to be inexhaustible (the Grand Banks, etc) have been all but WIPED OUT in a matter of a just a few decades, and any fish that try to establish themselves in the Arctic are ALSO liable to be similarly eliminated at even FASTER rates, given what we already know about fishing technology and simple human GREED. This 'problem' is seen throughout the book virtually wherever the author tries to 'look on the bright side' when projecting forward the effects of global warming, and for this reason, I am unable to give this book more than four stars.
Most recent customer reviews
It was very wrong book for me.