Why is the Arab world a mess? Some try to lay predominate blame on the Bush adm for its 2003 invasion of Iraq, while others, of let us say a different political persuasion, try to lay blame on the Obama adm for bugging out of Iraq in 2011. Both groups of partisans are merely attempting to score political points rather than making a serious attempt to discover the true causes of the mess in the Middle East.
Where does Filiu lay blame? Filiu portions out the lion's share of blame upon the Arab ruling elite who slowly over decades turned the remnants of the colonial governing model into a dystopian system. The Arab ruling elite care little for the poor and care even less about developing a middle class (would take money out of ruling elite pockets as they see it). They have developed a model of governing which looks solely after the elites interests, it uses all the tools of a police state to stay in power and loot the economy.
It is little wonder that a majority of the people are dissatisfied. Moderate dissent has been met not with offers of reform but with increasingly brutal measures from the police state. This, in turn, led to more extreme forms of dissent.
The Arab ruling elite, according to Filiu, through their brutal and foolhardy policies have conjured into existence an even more evil twin, namely, the Islamic jihadist.
This, in broad outline, is Filiu's thesis. He goes into particular details for a number of countries (Turkey, Egypt, Syria, Algeria and others). The book is not a smooth read but contains valuable information.
How should the US respond? Filiu does not grapple with this problem except for some vague advice that the US should find a way to help the moderates.
The W Bush policy (at least in the first term) was to intervene---we learned that modern armies are good at winning territory but poor at nation building. Even the second term Bush adms COIN (its clear, hold, and build policy) never solved the political problem which is at the root of the build phase of COIN policy. Like Filiu, they wanted to empower the moderates but did not know how or were at least unable to do so.
Obama's policy has been to become ever more hands off, (that US military power cannot solve the Middle Eastern political problem) with the hope this will force Middle Eastern countries to take more responsibility for running its own affairs. Filiu suggests such a hands off policy will increase the anarchy in the region which will further fuel the extremes (the evil twins).
One Middle Eastern analyst summed up his thinking this way, "In Iraq, the US intervened and occupied, and the result was a costly disaster. In Libya, the US intervened and did not occupy, and the result was a costly disaster. In Syria, the US neither intervened nor occupied, and the result was a costly disaster." From this perspective only the Arabs can arrest their descent into anarchy.
How to arrest the descent? It takes the political will to enact reform. The political reforms needed to assist the moderates are well known---an end to the crony economic system (open markets so a middle class has a chance to develop), instead of money flowing into the pockets and foreign bank accounts of cronies, the money needs to flow into a better educational system (an end to the schools of extremist religious indoctrination), pluralism in politics and if your side loses an election no resort to gunplay, why, because there is always another fair election on the horizon (if reform successful).
As I understand Filiu, Arabs with a reformist mindset are out there but are caught between the evil twins.
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