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Destined For War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? by [Graham Allison]

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Graham Allison

Destined For War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Kindle Edition

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NATIONAL BESTSELLER | NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR. From an eminent international security scholar, an urgent examination of the conditions that could produce a catastrophic conflict between the United States and China—and how it might be prevented.

China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap: when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, violence is the likeliest result. Over the past five hundred years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times; war broke out in twelve.

At the time of publication, an unstoppable China approached an immovable America, and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promised to make their countries “great again,” the seventeenth case was looking grim—it still is. A trade conflict, cyberattack, Korean crisis, or accident at sea could easily spark a major war.

In Destined for War, eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison masterfully blends history and current events to explain the timeless machinery of Thucydides’s Trap—and to explore the painful steps that might prevent disaster today.

SHORT-LISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE
NAMED A BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR BY: FINANCIAL TIMES * THE TIMES (LONDON)* AMAZON

“Allison is one of the keenest observers of international affairs around.” — President Joe Biden

“[A] must-read book in both Washington and Beijing.” — Boston Globe

“[Full of] wide-ranging, erudite case studies that span human history . . . [A] fine book.”— New York Times Book Review

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389 pages
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English
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Mariner Books
Publication date

May 30, 2017
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4702 KB
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Popular Highlights in this book

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Thucydides identifies three primary drivers fueling this dynamic that lead to war: interests, fear, and honor.
1,292 Kindle readers highlighted this
When states repeatedly fail to act in what appears to be their true national interest, it is often because their policies reflect necessary compromises among parties within their government rather than a single coherent vision.
1,163 Kindle readers highlighted this
Intentions aside, when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception.
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Editorial Reviews

From the Author

GRAHAM ALLISON is director of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and a best-selling author. Founding dean of the Kennedy School of Government, he has advised the secretaries of defense under Reagan, Clinton, and Obama.

--This text refers to an alternate kindle_edition edition.

Review

A NATIONAL BESTSELLER

A NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR

A NEW YORK TIMES EDITORS' CHOICE

A LONDON TIMES BOOK OF THE YEAR: POLITICS

A FINANCIAL TIMES BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR: POLITICS

AN AMAZON BEST HISTORY BOOK OF THE YEAR

SHORTLISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE

“Thucydides’s Trap identifies a cardinal challenge to world order: the impact of a rising power on a ruling power. I read the book with great interest. I can only hope that the US-China relationship becomes the fifth case to resolve itself peacefully, rather than the 13th to result in war.” — HENRY KISSINGER, former United States Secretary of State

“Graham Allison is one of the keenest observers of international affairs around. He consistently brings his deep understanding of history’s currents to today’s most difficult challenges and makes our toughest foreign policy dilemmas accessible to experts and everyday citizens alike. That’s why I regularly sought his counsel both as a senator and as vice president. In Destined for War, Allison lays out one of the defining challenges of our time — managing the critical relationship between China and the United States.” — JOE BIDEN, former Vice President of the United States

“One of the most insightful and thought-provoking books I have ever read on the most important relationship in the world: the US and China. If Graham Allison is right — and I think he is —China and the US must heed the lessons in this superb study in order to build a strategic relationship that avoids a war which neither side would win.” — GENERAL (RET.) DAVID PETRAEUS, Chairman of the KKR Global Institute, former Director of the CIA, and former Commander of US Central Command

“The Chinese superpower has arrived. Could America's failure to grasp this reality pull the United States and China into war? [Destined for War] argue[s] persuasively that adjusting to this global power shift will require great skill on both sides if conflagration is to be avoided... [Destined for War is full of] wide-ranging, erudite cases studies that span human history... [A] fine book.” — NEW YORK TIMES BOOK REVIEW

“This summer’s must-read book in both Washington and Beijing.” — NIALL FERGUSON, BOSTON GLOBE

“Please read this book because it'll rattle you...[Allison is] a first-class academic with the instincts of a first-rate politician. He brings to the 'Thucydides Trap' an impressive sweep of history and geopolitical and military knowledge. Unlike some academics, he writes interestingly... Allison isn't a pessimist. He argues that with skillful statecraft and political sensitivity these two superpowers can avoid war.” — BLOOMBERG NEWS

“A brief but far-reaching book in which potted history is incisively deployed…Perhaps we can avoid war, Mr. Allison says, by negotiating a long peace with China.” — WALL STREET JOURNAL

“Allison raises critical issues with a sense of both drama and history. His prose should alarm serious American thinkers... and perhaps divert us from debates over backchannels to Russia, presidential tweets and the ghost wiretapping of Trump Towers. And if you want some serious strategic imagination, pay special attention to the last ten pages or so. Worth the read.” —MICHAEL HAYDEN, former Director of the CIA, in The Cipher Brief

“Can the US avoid confrontation with China? That is the geopolitical question of our age. In most cases, Thucydides was right --This text refers to the paperback edition.

ASIN ‏ : ‎ B01IAS9FZY
Publisher ‏ : ‎ Mariner Books; Reprint edition (May 30, 2017)
Publication date ‏ : ‎ May 30, 2017
Language ‏ : ‎ English
File size ‏ : ‎ 4702 KB
Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
Screen Reader ‏ : ‎ Supported
Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Enabled
Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Enabled
Print length ‏ : ‎ 389 pages
Lending ‏ : ‎ Not Enabled

Best Sellers Rank: #53,760 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- #9 in History of China
- #21 in International Relations (Kindle Store)
- #35 in Chinese History (Books)

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Graham Allison

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Graham Allison is Director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the bestselling author of Destined for War: America, China, and Thucydides's Trap (2017); Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World (2013); Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe (2004); and Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (1971, 1999). Founding dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, Dr. Allison has served as Assistant Secretary of Defense and advised the secretaries of defense under every president from Reagan to Obama. He has twice been awarded the Department of Defense's highest civilian award, the Distinguished Public Service Medal, and serves on the Advisory boards of the Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense.

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David Lindsay

The China Problem

Reviewed in the United States on June 21, 2017

Verified Purchase

This book is really about the rise of China. America is facing its first serious economic competitor since it overtook Britain in the 19th century. The US has also been the dominant power in Asia since 1945. It has fought in Korea and Vietnam and protected Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, and the sea lanes in the region. When President Xi became China’s leader in 2012, he announced that his aim was to make China great again. This has meant a more assertive China. The book is a little disappointing because it points out that both countries are on a collision course but it does not present any good options for the US.

Graham Allison is a professor at Harvard. He reviews history and observes that when a new superpower emerges the reigning hegemonic power feels threatened and often (but not always) decides to crush the upstart before it gets too powerful. Often this results in a catastrophic war. Allison calls this the “Thucydides trap” after the ancient Greek historian. He starts with the Sparta-Athens war (431 BC - 404 BC). Sparta decided that it had to defeat Athens before it became too powerful. Thucydides tells us that war between the cities was more or less inevitable. Allison picks sixteen similar examples of great power conflicts over the last 500 years, only four ended peacefully.

Allison describes the behavior of the US after it became the world’s leading economic power in the 1890s. This sets a worrying precedent should the Chinese choose to follow our example. America started to apply the Monroe Doctrine and regarded the Western Hemisphere as its backyard. Teddy Roosevelt made it clear to the Europeans that the US would not tolerate interference in the Americas and it would fight to protect its interests. The US threatened Britain and Germany with war. Fortunately, the Europeans backed down. China now regards the South China Sea as its backyard and has started to flex its muscles. Xi talks of “Asia for the Asians” and wants the US to withdraw its military from the region. It is not clear what happens next if we try and maintain the current status quo. Foreign policy experts such as Ian Bremmer and Robert Kaplan have advised appeasement and suggested that we should terminate our obligations to Taiwan and Japan.

John Mearsheimer is a history professor at the University of Chicago and he has also written about China and America. Mearsheimer believes that once countries become economically dominant they seek to dominate their region militarily. He calls this “offensive realism.” The neo-cons who worked for the first President Bush wanted the US to become a global hegemon and they created the Wolfowitz Doctrine, which Allison does not mention. The doctrine wanted to prevent any new rising power becoming a rival as powerful as the Soviet Union. This is the "Thucydides Trap" as foreign policy. Mearsheimer predicts that China will attempt to dominate Asia so that conflict with the US is probably inevitable. This is the crucial foreign policy problem of our age, what happens in Syria is irrelevant by comparison. Allison believes that both America and China assume that they are special and inherently superior to other nations. They expect other countries to follow their lead and be submissive. This could present problems in Asia for the US. China has made it clear it does not want be part of a world order dominated by the US and its liberal democratic values. Like the US, it wants to lead.

Allison believes that there will soon come a time when the US would probably lose a military confrontation in the South China Sea. The Chinese have developed land-based missiles that could sink America’s carriers if they get too close to the Chinese mainland. Does that mean we should respond like Britain in the early part of the 20th century and back-off? What would that mean for Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea? Allison does not offer any real answers.

Some of Allison’s chosen historical lessons were not particularly relevant to the coming conflict with China and I often disagreed with his analysis. Allison describes WW1 primarily as a struggle between Britain and Germany. Germany’s decision to go to war in 1914 was mainly about its rivalry with Russia and maintaining hegemony over the European mainland, something Britain never had any interest in. Germany was concerned about protecting its backyard, which meant its long border with Russia. Moltke, the head of the German army, wanted to crush Russia before it was too late. The Tsar had a huge army and the country was rapidly industrializing. Russia had always been an expansionist power. A modern Russian army would have been a real threat to Germany.

Allison's list of key players in 1914 (e.g., Churchill, Edward VII, Bethmann Hollweg, and the Kaiser) is also wide of the mark. He focuses on Churchill, who was Britain’s navy secretary at the time. On the British side, Asquith (prime minister), Sir Edward Grey (Foreign Secretary) and David Lloyd George (Chancellor) called the shots. Grey hated the Germans and wanted to help France. Lloyd George became prime minister in 1916 and his support was needed before war was declared, the party would have split without his backing. Lloyd George sat on the fence until Germany attacked Belgium. The German chancellor (Bethmann Hollweg) did not control the army or foreign policy, the Kaiser did. The Kaiser just wanted to fight Russia. However, Moltke, who was head of the army, sidelined the Kaiser. The main objective of the German army's Schlieffen Plan was to remove the Russian threat by first attacking France and Belgium. The German army believed they could defeat the French easily, as they had in 1871, and then turn and face the Russians. Moltke was not worried about Britain’s tiny army. Britain entered the war only because Germany invaded Belgium. The Germans feared the growing power of Russia, for them, it wasn't about Britain at all.

Overall, the book is easy to read and very informative. What Allison makes clear is that we don't have any good options. By 1905, Britain had no economic interests in the Western Hemisphere that it was prepared to fight over, apart from Canada. It may be different for the US in Asia. If we choose to withdraw from Asia, it would raise fundamental questions about the global role of the US. We would no longer need to spend $700 billion annually on defense. This is a difficult and risky call for the US. We need a book that can hopefully explain the pros and cons of the various options.

192 people found this helpful

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Alan F. Sewell

Destined for War --- or not?

Reviewed in the United States on May 31, 2017

Verified Purchase

I wondered if this book might be a hackneyed view of China with a sensationalized scenario of improbable war. However, Author Graham Allison quickly back-peddles away from the provocative title:

=====
The possibility that the United States and China could find themselves at war appears as unlikely as it would be unwise.
=====

So much for THAT title! The title was written to sell books, of course, and not to represent the true content of the book.

Allison primarily frames the USA vs. China rivalry in the well-known paradigm of superpower rivalries going back to Athens vs. Sparta, Britain vs. {every European Empire + Russia + Japan + USA}, and finally the USA vs. the Soviet Union.

These stories are well-known. However, Allison tells them in interesting ways. For example, he explains that Germany’s desire to acquire much of the world dates from the late 1800s. Hitler did not originate the idea, but rather put it into action by attempting to wipe out the Soviet Union and repopulate it with Germans. That’s not relevant to China, but it is interesting history in its own right.

He also tells the interesting story of how the USA’s rise rattled Great Britain and its Canadian Dominion. Fortunately, we “upstart Yankees” and the imperious Brits always compromised before armed conflict resulted --- the most severe incident being the Venezuela crisis of the 1890s when the USA accused Britain of violating the Monroe Doctrine by trying to re-colonize part of Venezuela’s territory. Fortunately, Britain took the long view that maintaining its investments in the USA, plus having us as allies against anticipated future aggression from Germany, was far more important than inciting us to war over Venezuela.

Britain backed down, knowing that Venezuela was a prestige issue for the USA that we could not back down from. The implication is that we should not allow ourselves to be drawn into war with China over petty incidents that are vital to China’s prestige, but not to ours.

Allison explains that China is fundamentally a peaceable country that regards war as the last resort of barbarians. The Chinese tradition is to prevail economically, by attaining dominance in trade. Nevertheless, we did fight the Chinese during the Korean War when they massively intervened to keep our armies away from the Chinese border. The Chinese did not fear our nuclear weapons, nor did they fear those of the Soviet Union when they provoked the Sino-Soviet Border War of 1969. Allison tells the interesting story of how Soviet Chairman Brezhnev asked our President Nixon to join him in a preemptive nuclear attack on China. Nixon declined of course, and then succeeded in establishing détente with China as well as the USSR.

The USA and China have historically been in alliance against other expansionist powers, especially during WWII when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor after we demanded that the Japanese withdraw from their brutal conquest of China. Nevertheless, the possibility of war between the USA and China cannot be ignored. It happened in Korea and could happen again if relations are not carefully managed. After all, some of history's bloodiest wars, including WWI, the Chinese intervention in Korea, and our own Civil War were considered impossible until the day they ignited.

Allison outlines the scenarios of possible USA / China war: a conflict in the high seas around China that China claims as sovereign territory; a conflict over the trade imbalance; a declaration of independence by Taiwan; and of course a renewal of the conflict in Korea that could accidentally involve both the USA and China in a war neither wants.

The book explained to me why President Trump appears to be proceeding very cautiously (more cautiously than I would prefer) in asking the Chinese to restrain their trade imbalance with us, and in helping us defuse the nuclear ambitions of North Korea. I was educated to the subtleties of our relations with China that I had not been previously aware of.

Like many Americans, I approached this book with both affection for China’s people, culture, and history. I have invested profitably in Chinese stocks, but have also seen how severe trade deficits with China severely hurts the USA and cost millions of Americans their jobs.

The book confirms my belief that if we do not constrain our trade with China, we are destined to be destroyed as a major economic power. I travel abroad, and have seen how China copies American products, then pushes our American companies out of foreign markets and even our own domestic market. If the trend is not stopped, China will own the USA in 50 years or less. They will conquer us by combining the Chinese government and Chinese business into a unified, irresistible force that steals American technologies and repackages them as Chinese-made products sold around the world; while forbidding American companies to do business in China. Allison makes no bones about China’s intentions:

=====
China is ready to use the carrots and sticks of its economic power— buying, selling, sanctioning, investing, bribing, and stealing as needed until they fall into line....China enjoys such superiority in its balance of economic power that many other states have no realistic option but to comply with its wishes, even when the international system is on their side....The fact is that China’s economic network is spreading across the globe, altering the international balance of power in a way that causes even longtime US allies in Asia to tilt from the US toward China
=====

I thus learned more than I expected from the book. It is comprehensive in providing a broad perspective of all our current issues with China. Allison explains these issues objectively, and seems to have no hidden agendas to advocate for. I am rating this book four stars instead of five, only because the “Sparta vs. Athens” theme is long-winded and used to pad the book a bit more than necessary.

I would also recommend another book as a companion to this one, that portrays the USA / China relationship in more historical depth, and with a more positive spin: THE BEAUTIFUL COUNTRY (the USA is called "the beautiful country" by Chinese) AND THE MIDDLE KINGDOM (China) BY John Pomfret. That book explains the past history of our relations with China. This book by Graham Allison has a more immediate impact of explaining our relations with China as a current and future event that may have an unhappy outcome if care is not taken on both sides.

These two books together provide a thorough briefing on the opportunities, challenges, plus the threat of trade war or armed conflict with China. My takeaway from both is: “We can manage our relations to China constructively so as to have a fascinating and prosperous future of mutual benefit to us ad all humanity; but only so long as we are very careful not to disrespect each other, underestimate each other, or do something stupid that will provoke a war, that does not need to be fought.”

Of course that idea is self-evident, but the books delve into the specific details of policy on HOW the vision of cordial relations and mutual prosperity between the USA and China can be achieved by both nations. Obviously, this will be one of the top two or three issues that shape our destiny, and the world’s, during the 21st Century.

271 people found this helpful

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Top reviews from other countries

Sontee

Brilliant read

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on June 13, 2018

Verified Purchase

Are China and the US going to be able to escape Thucydides’ Trap? Greek historian Thucydides wrote about the Peloponnesian war. He analysed the reasons around it and came to the conclusion that if a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power it could lead to war. He believed it was the threat, the Spartans felt with the rise of Athens that lead to the two city-states clashing swords. He also believed that overtly neither of them wanted a war, but circumstances made it unavoidable.
These set of circumstances is what Graham Allison terms as Thucydides’ trap. He claims since the Peloponnesian war, there’ve been 16 times when countries have faced similar pressures and only four haven’t resulted in war. The Thirty years war, Crimean war and both the world wars have all been a result of Thucydides’ trap. He looks at the current situation of a rising China and established US and wonders if this would end up in war or will they manage to avoid it like the four times countries have in the past?
Brilliant and definitely worth a read.

10 people found this helpful

Online Customer

Very Interesting

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on July 1, 2020

Verified Purchase

Interesting topic. The book describes China's spectacular rise on the world stage and discusses how the US may respond as it slips into 2nd place based on historical examples. I wouldn't take the authors accounts as gospel but it certainly is thought provoking. Well worth a read I'd say.

3 people found this helpful

Robert

Disturbingly provocative!

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 1, 2020

Verified Purchase

Fight your way through preface and introduction with the bragging and inaccuracies ""Lee (Lee Kuan Yew) took a small poor inconsequential fishing village and raised it to become a modern megalopolis." As the global centre for rubber distribution in the 1890's it was hardly a fishing village by the time Lee became ruler!
The reward is a beautifully logical construction of perspectives and arguments leading to the key question and possible answers.

3 people found this helpful

E. W. Sharman

A Great Read with an interesting Idea.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 1, 2019

Verified Purchase

This is a great read with an interesting point. Today you do get the feeling that every international flash point is new or unique but as Mr Allison shows things change but to some extent stay the same. Is it Machiavelli's the Prince no , but the points raised are informative and show what might happen in the not too distant future if our leaders forget what the past has to show us.

5 people found this helpful

Amazon Customer

An interesting argument

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 12, 2021

Verified Purchase

I found this book fascinating and reading it several years after it’s been written. You can see the scenarios playing out in today’s world in 2021. China’s continued rise but most recently Xi’s choosing to return to a time of Mao with Xi’s thoughts now being taught in schools. The worsening of USA’s political parties and the divisions that run so deep and full of hatred there . It seems with the rise of social media that sound thinking has disappeared to be replaced by sound bites that look good on Instagram or Facebook and no one dating to say a word lest they offend anyone.

It would be interesting to see this book updated in another 5 -10 years to see what has changed

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