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Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Hardcover – May 30, 2017

by Graham Allison (Author)

4.6 2,386 ratings

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CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES ARE HEADING TOWARD A WAR NEITHER WANTS. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one. This phenomenon is as old as history itself. About the Peloponnesian War that devastated ancient Greece, the historian Thucydides explained: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” Over the past 500 years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times. War broke out in twelve of them. Today, as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries “great again,” the seventeenth case looks grim. Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific, a trade conflict, cyberattack, or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war.

In Destined for War, the eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison explains why Thucydides’s Trap is the best lens for understanding U.S.-China relations in the twenty-first century. Through uncanny historical parallels and war scenarios, he shows how close we are to the unthinkable. Yet, stressing that war is not inevitable, Allison also reveals how clashing powers have kept the peace in the past — and what painful steps the United States and China must take to avoid disaster today.

Print length

384 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Publication date

May 30, 2017
Dimensions

6.5 x 1.25 x 9.5 inches
ISBN-10

0544935276
ISBN-13

978-0544935273
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Get to know this book

What's it about?
A book about the potential for war between China and the United States, and how it might be prevented.
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Thucydides identifies three primary drivers fueling this dynamic that lead to war: interests, fear, and honor.
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When states repeatedly fail to act in what appears to be their true national interest, it is often because their policies reflect necessary compromises among parties within their government rather than a single coherent vision.
1,735 Kindle readers highlighted this
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Intentions aside, when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception.
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Editorial Reviews

Review

A NATIONAL BESTSELLER
A NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR
A NEW YORK TIMES EDITORS' CHOICE
A LONDON TIMES BOOK OF THE YEAR: POLITICS
A FINANCIAL TIMES BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR: POLITICS
AN AMAZON BEST HISTORY BOOK OF THE YEAR
SHORTLISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE

“Thucydides’s Trap identifies a cardinal challenge to world order: the impact of a rising power on a ruling power. I read the book with great interest. I can only hope that the US-China relationship becomes the fifth case to resolve itself peacefully, rather than the 13th to result in war.” — HENRY KISSINGER, former United States Secretary of State

“Graham Allison is one of the keenest observers of international affairs around. He consistently brings his deep understanding of history’s currents to today’s most difficult challenges and makes our toughest foreign policy dilemmas accessible to experts and everyday citizens alike. That’s why I regularly sought his counsel both as a senator and as vice president. In Destined for War, Allison lays out one of the defining challenges of our time — managing the critical relationship between China and the United States.” — JOE BIDEN, former Vice President of the United States

“One of the most insightful and thought-provoking books I have ever read on the most important relationship in the world: the US and China. If Graham Allison is right — and I think he is —China and the US must heed the lessons in this superb study in order to build a strategic relationship that avoids a war which neither side would win.” — GENERAL (RET.) DAVID PETRAEUS, Chairman of the KKR Global Institute, former Director of the CIA, and former Commander of US Central Command

“The Chinese superpower has arrived. Could America's failure to grasp this reality pull the United States and China into war? [Destined for War] argue[s] persuasively that adjusting to this global power shift will require great skill on both sides if conflagration is to be avoided... [Destined for War is full of] wide-ranging, erudite cases studies that span human history... [A] fine book.” — NEW YORK TIMES BOOK REVIEW

“This summer’s must-read book in both Washington and Beijing.” — NIALL FERGUSON, BOSTON GLOBE

“Please read this book because it'll rattle you...[Allison is] a first-class academic with the instincts of a first-rate politician. He brings to the 'Thucydides Trap' an impressive sweep of history and geopolitical and military knowledge. Unlike some academics, he writes interestingly... Allison isn't a pessimist. He argues that with skillful statecraft and political sensitivity these two superpowers can avoid war.” — BLOOMBERG NEWS

“A brief but far-reaching book in which potted history is incisively deployed…Perhaps we can avoid war, Mr. Allison says, by negotiating a long peace with China.” — WALL STREET JOURNAL

“Allison raises critical issues with a sense of both drama and history. His prose should alarm serious American thinkers... and perhaps divert us from debates over backchannels to Russia, presidential tweets and the ghost wiretapping of Trump Towers. And if you want some serious strategic imagination, pay special attention to the last ten pages or so. Worth the read.” —MICHAEL HAYDEN, former Director of the CIA, in The Cipher Brief

“Can the US avoid confrontation with China? That is the geopolitical question of our age. In most cases, Thucydides was right: when a new power arises in the world, it results in a clash with the dominant power. This important and fascinating book extracts lessons for how we can avoid such a confrontation.” — WALTER ISAACSON, author of Steve Jobs and The Innovators

“A hugely respected theorist and practitioner in the field of contemporary national security, Graham Allison is also a master of applied history. You can bet that China's leaders will read Allison's warnings about Thucydides's Trap. I only wish I could be as sure about America's leaders. But every informed citizen should buy a copy.” — NIALL FERGUSON, senior fellow, the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and author of The War of the World

“A provocative thesis on one of today's most pressing foreign policy issues and a page turner of the first order, Destined for War is a must read. Professor Allison writes with the propulsive narrative drive appropriate for such an immediate and danger fraught topic. I can only hope that all senior policy experts read this timely book to prevent our country from falling into the trap Professor Allison so ably warns us against.” — CHRISTOPHER REICH, bestselling author of Invasion of Privacy, The Patriots’ Club, and Numbered Account

“Do China and America want war? No. Might they be compelled into conflict by severe structural stress? Yes. Thankfully, Allison charts an essential course to avoid a catastrophic collision. Destined for War will be studied and debated for decades.” — KEVIN RUDD, former Prime Minister of Australia

“In Destined for War, Graham Allison has again done a great service. With an incisive review of the wars of yesterday and a deep understanding of today’s international politics, Allison has provided American and Chinese leaders not just with a stark warning about the consequences of falling into the Thucydides’s Trap, but also the insight to avoid it. For policymakers, scholars, and citizens on both sides of the Pacific Ocean, Destined for War is essential reading.” — ASH CARTER, former U.S. Secretary of Defense

“Graham Allison is the Paul Revere of the nuclear age. He has been ringing the alarm for years trying to stir us from our slumber. In his brilliant book, Allison provides us with a heart stopping look into a future that may end as abruptly as the past began.” — WILLIAM COHEN, former U.S. Secretary of Defense

“In dissecting — and suggesting ways to bend — the dangerous arc of the US-China relationship, Graham Allison has written the most important foreign policy book of our time. This book should immediately be read by our new president. Placing Destined for War atop every government organization’s reading list offers our generation of leaders the best hope for avoiding stumbling into Thucydides’s notorious trap.” — ADMIRAL (RET.) SANDY WINNEFELD, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

“Drawing on a sweeping command of history and a keen ability to distill the essence of an argument, Graham Allison has provided the necessary guide for how to manage Sino-American relations into an uncertain future. Essential, even indispensable reading for every diplomat — and financier or businessman — that contemplates China and its relations with the world.” — KURT CAMPBELL, CEO of The Asia Group and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs

“Destined for War is a must-read for anyone concerned about US-China relations, or peace. And by all who care about the ways US foreign policy is formed — and ought to be formed. A gifted combination of scholarship with truly accessible writing.” — AMITAI ETZIONI, professor of International Affairs at The George Washington University and author of Avoiding War with China

“Reading Destined for War and drawing from its lessons could help to save the lives of millions of people.” — KLAUS SCHWAB, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum

“Steeped in history and propelled by one of the most transformative developments in modern times — the rise of China — Graham Allison has written a gripping book that decision-makers and citizens alike must read, digest, and act upon. Allison combines a historian’s depth of knowledge with a policymaker’s real world, practical understanding. He mines the recent and distant past to offer essential insights into the future — in so doing, changing the way we think about how America should act in the present.” — SAMANTHA POWER, former U.S Ambassador to the United Nations and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of A Problem from Hell

“If any book can stop a world war, it is this one. Graham Allison makes a clear and compelling case that serious conflict between the United States and China is looming, but not inevitable. This gripping book is a must read for policy makers in both nations as well as the general public.” — SAM NUNN, Co-Chairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and former U.S. Senator (1972-1996)

“Might Destined for War be the policy book of the year? When Xi Jinping declares that the story in Graham Allison’s book is serious enough to compel our attention, then we need to study the arguments in it. Deftly presented, clearly structured, and with a fine concluding exploration of the endless historical debate between great forces and contingency, Destined for War seems itself destined for much attention, argument and constant classroom use.” — PAUL KENNEDY, author of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers

“Graham Allison is the quintessential scholar-practitioner. He has served at the highest levels of government and the academy, and is one of the principal protagonists of 'applied history' world-wide. His latest book brings historically-informed political science to bear on the preeminent strategic question of our age: whether the rise of China can unfold without major war. A work of reflection rather than prediction, its conclusions are nevertheless deeply disturbing. Surely another classic in the making, Destined for War is a brilliant example of 'thinking in time', which—as the author shows—is against us.” — BRENDAN SIMMS, author of Europe: The Struggle for Supremacy

“Graham Allison has been a source of inspiration for me as a student and diplomat. As with Essence of Decision, Destined for War again provides us with his penetrating insights into global politics in the 21st century and beyond.” — BAN KI-MOON, former Secretary General of the United Nations

“Managing our strategic rivalry with a rising China will be the number one challenge for US foreign policy in the decades ahead. The stakes are high. Historical precedents are ominous. Some think conflict is inevitable. Others dismiss that conclusion as simplistic. This seminal book provides the reader both with a fascinating excursion through history, and with the conceptual basis for thinking intelligently about an issue that, for better or worse, will profoundly affect the future of the United States.” — J. STAPLETON ROY, former U.S. Ambassador to China

“As Destined for War demonstrates, recognizing the Thucydidean stress between the US and China is far from appeasement. Rather, Graham Allison shows why it is the fundamental starting point for a successful American strategy to deal with the rise of Chinese power that both upholds our vital national interests and avoids war.” — ROBERT D. BLACKWILL, Henry Kissinger Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. Ambassador to India

“Graham Allison, with his usual conceptual clarity, uses the “Thucydides’s Trap” to light up the big question of our day: how can the dominant power (the United States) avoid war with the rising power (China)? Allison provides historical perspective, while presenting the U.S. perspective that he knows from the inside and the Chinese perspective that he has studied with uncommon depth.” — EZRA VOGEL, author of Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China

“Read this book. You cannot get a better introduction to the dilemmas the US faces in its China policy or to the methods of applied history in understanding current affairs.” — ARNE WESTAD, author of Restless Empire: China and the World since 1750

“It isn’t often that a book comes along that should be mandatory reading for every member of Congress, Cabinet member and, for that matter, any senior governmental official with a connection to foreign policy and national security. But Graham Allison’s Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? is such a book.” — CHARLES E. COOK, JR., Editor of The Cook Political Report

“Destined for War is a ‘must read’ for those who care about the long-term security and economic interests of the United States.” — DAN SULLIVAN, U.S. Senator (R-AK)

“Allison’s book is essential reading both for the content and its impact. It is already being circulated in the White House and politburo, and will no doubt be added to political science reading lists in universities around the globe... Allison calls Obama’s Asia pivot 'using an extra strength aspirin to treat cancer.' With this book, we might finally be shifting to chemotherapy.” — LOWY INSTITUTE

“A pertinent study of the relationship between the United States and China... A timely, reasoned treatise by a keen observer and historian.” — KIRKUS (Starred Review)

“As Xi Jinping prepares to meet Donald Trump in Florida next week, his staff might do well to get hold of an advance copy of an important new book by Graham Allison on US-Chinese relations — which bears the doom-laden title Destined for War. The Chinese president is already familiar with the work of Allison, a professor of government at Harvard. In November 2013, I attended a meeting with President Xi in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, where he told a group of western visitors: ‘We must all work together to avoid Thucydides’s trap.’” — GIDEON RACHMAN, Chief Foreign Affairs Columnist of the FINANCIAL TIMES

“The Trump White House isn’t known as a hot spot for Ivy League intellectuals. But last month, a Harvard academic slipped into the White House complex for an unusual meeting. Graham Allison, an avuncular foreign policy thinker who served under Reagan and Clinton, was paying a visit to the Trump National Security Council, where he briefed a group of staffers on one of history’s most studied conflicts — a brutal war waged nearly 2,500 years ago, one whose lessons still resonate, even in the administration of a president who doesn’t like to read.” — POLITICO

“Mr. Allison does not say that war between China and the United States is inevitable, but he thinks it “more likely than not.” This alarming conclusion is shared by many in Washington, where Mr. Allison’s book is causing a stir... China and America could blunder into war in several ways, argues Mr. Allison... With Donald Trump in the White House, Mr. Allison worries that even a trade war might turn into a shooting war.” — THE ECONOMIST

“Graham Allison has written what I think will be the definitive book on the relationship between China and the United States.” —DAVID RUBENSTEIN, Co-Founder and Co-Executive Chairman of The Carlyle Group

“The reason Destined for War is such an important book is that it asks: if China, with its current form of government and economic arrangement, rises to be twice as big as the United States, spending twice as much on everything including its military, then what happens? Most people do not want to accept that this scenario is possible, let alone even contemplate what happens… If war happens, it would be an all-out catastrophe. So we need to do everything we possibly can to avoid it.” —LI LU, Founder and Chairman of Himalaya Capital Management

“Graham Allison has articulated an idea known as the “Thucydides Trap.” It states that, through history, the rise of an emerging power very often creates fear and anxiety among established powers, which can (in the worst-case scenario) lead to war. Schwarzman Scholars was designed to help defuse those tensions and create a more peaceful world.” — STEPHEN SCHWARZMAN, CEO of Blackstone Group

“My Book of the Week from Sunday’s show: Graham Allison’s Destined for War. A very smart and important book.” — FAREED ZAKARIA, host of CNN’s GPS

“Destined for War:Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Read every page… Twice.” — ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI, former White House Communications Director

“Destined for War by Graham Allison informs the moment like Guns of August did for Kennedy in [the] Cuban Missile Crisis. Important lessons.” — LLOYD BLANKFEIN, CEO of Goldman Sachs

Destined for War “sounds a useful, even important warning call… Stability and predictability are key factors in averting conflict. America needs a coherent strategy, rather than making sporadic lunges onto the world stage with either rhetoric or cruise missiles.” — THE LONDON TIMES

"Destined for War has made the 2018 reading list of Gen. Joseph Votel, commander of U.S. Central Command…Whether you’re looking for a book or two to read over the holidays or beginning to compile your own 2018 professional development reading list, the books on this list are a great place to start.” — MODERN WAR INSTITUTE AT WEST POINT

“The U.S. needs a strategy to deal with a China that is increasingly comfortable engaging aggressively in the world. A good primer on this is Graham Allison’s recent book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Allison, a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, tells the story of China’s truly meteoric rise over the past three decades, and makes the point that while we are playing checkers, the Chinese are not simply playing chess — they are playing a different game altogether: Go.” — ADMIRAL (RET.) JAMES G. STAVRIDIS, Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and former Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

About the Author

GRAHAM ALLISON is director of Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the best-selling author of LeeKuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World; Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe; and Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Founding dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, Dr. Allison has served as Assistant Secretary of Defense and advised the secretaries of defense under every president from Reagan to Obama. He lives in Belmont, Massachusetts.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Houghton Mifflin Harcourt; First Edition (May 30, 2017)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 384 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0544935276
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0544935273
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.28 pounds
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.5 x 1.25 x 9.5 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #252,386 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #213 in Asian Politics
- #303 in Chinese History (Books)
- #907 in History & Theory of Politics

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Graham Allison is Director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the bestselling author of Destined for War: America, China, and Thucydides's Trap (2017); Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World (2013); Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe (2004); and Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (1971, 1999). Founding dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, Dr. Allison has served as Assistant Secretary of Defense and advised the secretaries of defense under every president from Reagan to Obama. He has twice been awarded the Department of Defense's highest civilian award, the Distinguished Public Service Medal, and serves on the Advisory boards of the Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense.

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109 customers mention "Research"105 positive4 negative

Customers find the book's research insightful, useful, and brilliant. They say it's an excellent book for debate in both military and secular colleges. Readers also say it is prophetic for the events of 2018. They mention that the book is a refreshing serious look at the real-world challenges.

"...This book was written in 2017 but it was quite prophetic for the events of 2018 and the dynamics illustrated in the book are a valuable way to..." Read more

"...Chapter 6 of Part III provides a fascinating, if unsettling, account of China’s aspirations under President Xi Jinping...." Read more

"...highly partisan ‘ideology over reality’ world, this book is a refreshing serious look at the real-world challenges facing our country and our..." Read more

"...The author presents his historical argument concisely and takes great care to avoid becoming bogged down in pedagogy...." Read more

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"This book is excellent and the author could see the currently heightened frictions we are witnessing between China and the US miles away...." Read more

"...An interesting book, but I’m not so sure that Thucydides’ Paradox is really “in play.”" Read more

"This is an excellent and very timely book...." Read more

"This book's ideas are worth a second look and sharing.I would recommend this book to anyone wanting a broader perspective of the world." Read more

59 customers mention "Comprehensibility"55 positive4 negative

Customers find the book succinct, powerful, and readable. They also say it's an excellent interpretation of a several thousand year old theory applied to a modern world. Readers also say the book provides a brilliant template for understanding the key players and their likely next moves.

"...Graham Allison writes a very clear overview of how to think about the current challenges faced and the ways to navigate them for mutual benefit...." Read more

"...A must read for any serious statesman (assuming there are any left), and for high school civics classes (also assuming there are any left)" Read more

"...The book is very readable, in spite of the the 'heavy' nature of the subject matter...." Read more

"...a praise of the book, really, because as I said, it seems to have a clear thesis and does its job neatly...." Read more

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A. Menon

Must read to contextualize the growing frictions between the US and China

Reviewed in the United States on November 16, 2018

Verified Purchase

This book is excellent and the author could see the currently heightened frictions we are witnessing between China and the US miles away. The author describes the dynamics of great power struggles through history and refers us to Thucydides and the Peloponnesian Wars to frame an understanding of the inevitable conflict arising when there is a rising power facing an incumbent power. This book was written in 2017 but it was quite prophetic for the events of 2018 and the dynamics illustrated in the book are a valuable way to think about the current conflict we are witnessing.

The author splits the book into four parts. He starts just by framing China's economic development over the past several decades and its current economic might as well as its different structure to the western idea of an ideal socio-economic system. China's growth has been remarkable and remains remarkable and it is important to take stock of its history to understand what form the national ambitions might take. The author then gets into the history of great power conflicts framing the discussion in terms of the Thucydides trap. He discusses the Peloponnesian War and the dynamics of how such conflicts arose benignly. The author details several similar conflicts including Spain and Portugal, US & Great Britain at the turn of the century, WW1 is discussed. The author then discusses China and the US. The author starts by discussing what China and Xi want, which is to restore China to its historic level of greatness. As the current world order was structured without China's influence. CHina legitimately can feel like rules need to be re-written to be more balanced. The author discusses Huntington and the message in the Clash of Civilizations and in particular discusses the deep intrinsic differences between the West and China and conception of right and wrong and the role of the state. The author also goes through the exercise of discussing various fictional states of the world where China and the US stumble into military conflict. They all seem highly plausible reminding the innocent reader that the world is a complex interconnected yet fragile place and we shouldn't trivialize what is required to keep it in balance. The author then gives his optimism about the ability to navigate away from conflict. Obviously the current state of military technology means war is potentially the end of humanity when it comes to nuclear powers. Nonetheless the author highlights that if national objectives are well thought out and the US starts to focus on what is in its vital interest rather than blindly want to hold on to the old status quo, a more honest assessment of mutual accommodation can be possible.

The current frictions, manifesting themselves as a trade war, are strong evidence of a great power struggle that has many historical precedents and can be considered the Thucydides trap. Graham Allison writes a very clear overview of how to think about the current challenges faced and the ways to navigate them for mutual benefit. If only he were a current policy advisor instead of an academic as the current administration is in sore need of a clear mind and strategy. If one wants to view the current geopolitical climate in its context, read this book.

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Gary C. Marfin

A Remarkable, if at times Troubling Book

Reviewed in the United States on March 5, 2023

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It is difficult to imagine a book on foreign policy that can better equip policy-makers and citizens generally for the future than Graham Allison’s Destined for War. To avoid war, we must make a conscious effort to escape Thucydides’ trap. That trap is a stress that can culminate in war “when a rising power threatens to upend a ruling one.” In his classic history of the Peloponnesian war, Thucydides maintained “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made the war inevitable.” Mr. Allison correctly perceives the rise of China as inducing a similar fear in the United States. War, however, according to Mr. Allison, is neither inevitable, nor impossible. In fact, being cognizant of the trap and taking such measures as can reasonably be taken to avoid it are the keys to escaping war’s inevitability.

Part I of his book summarizes China’s ascent, a topic revisited in rich detail in Part III, and Part II provides historical background to Thucydides’ trap and an overview of sixteen cases during the past five hundred years “in which an ascending power challenges an established power.” Twelve resulted in war.

Chapter 6 of Part III provides a fascinating, if unsettling, account of China’s aspirations under President Xi Jinping. Under Xi, what China wants will sound only too familiar to readers: “Make China Great Again” or, in a later formulation, “Make China Proud Again.” Allison’s sketch of Xi’s life is fascinating. Xi, a man clever and wise enough to have been mentored by Singapore’s great leader, Kuan Yew Lee, is very much the “self-made man” uniformly beloved in this country. Xi is no idle dreamer. “To achieve the great revival of the Chinese nation” Xi maintains that China “must ensure there is unison between a prosperous country and a strong military.”

The chapter “From Here to War” is an engrossing account of various scenarios that might well lead to war. Having skated the surface of such scenario development some years ago, I was struck at how the emergence of cyber warfare can affect the perception of leaders and alter the outcome of hostilities. In fact, one difficulty is that the scenarios leading to war seem far more powerful - that is, they appear more likely - than the paths to peace covered near the book’s end. In making that claim, I do not intend to convey the impression that this book is a doomsday read. It’s not. What it does teach us is that policy-makers must undertake a serious effort toward the objective of escaping Thucydides’ trap. That, in turn, will entail the discipline of not to being overly distracted by the endless cycle of events in the Middle East.

This is a wide ranging text, and the wisdom it imparts reflects the decades of experience Mr. Allison brings to the task, both as a long serving Harvard academic and an advisor to the defense departments of both parties. I cannot recommend this book highly enough.

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Steven Peterson

Thucydides and the American-Chinese Dance

Reviewed in the United States on January 25, 2018

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This is Thucydides’ Paradox (from his towering work, The Peloponnesian Wars) and its implication for American-Chinese relations, as per Graham Allison: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”

Over the past 500 years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times. War broke out in twelve of them. Today, as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries “great again,” the seventeenth case looks grim.

This book explores the developing relationship between China and the United States in terms of Thucydides.

Allison is an eminent student of politics. His work on the Cuban Missile Crisis is a classic (and deservedly so). Thus, we should probably take this work seriously. However, it seems unlikely that this would be the 13th case out of 17 that lead to war. Allison’s discussion of prior example of the Paradox coming in to play is quite useful.

Some pluses of this work—the examination of examples of the Paradox taking place, the historical perspective on the US versus China. Still, China has not shown a real interest in spending a fortune on its military to challenge the United States. Moreover, its economic growth will soon allow it to outstrip the US in terms of GDP (even though is has surpassed the United States already if we use an alternative measure—PPP (Purchasing Power Parity; see https://www.investopedia.com/updates/purchasing-power-parity-ppp/). China is more a status quo power than a revisionist power.

An interesting book, but I’m not so sure that Thucydides’ Paradox is really “in play.”

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Leandro Santana de Oliveira

Ótimo livro.

Reviewed in Brazil on November 11, 2023

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“A Caminho da Guerra” é um livro que nos faz refletir sobre a geopolítica atual. O argumento do autor é que, ao longo da história, sempre que uma potência emergente passava a ameaçar a hegemonia da potência dominante, o risco de um conflito se tornava iminente. Fenômeno que ele chamou de armadilha de Tucídides, em referência ao historiador grego que retratou os conflitos entre Atenas e Esparta na antiguidade.

Ao longo dos anos, algumas dessas disputas se tornaram guerras concretas, como o caso ateniense, mas também a Alemanha e a Grã-Bretanha, no início do século XX. Outros conflitos foram latentes, mas não descambaram para a guerra direta, como os USA e a URSS, durante a Guerra Fria.

Agora, a potência emergente é a China, que desafia a hegemonia que os USA desfrutam desde a queda do Muro de Berlim. A invasão da Ucrânia revela que a Rússia ainda não aceita seu papel nesse novo cenário. Suas ogivas nucleares garantem o seu lugar à mesa.

A China tem sido o fiel da balança nesse conflito e sua resistência em condenar o regime de Putin demonstra que ela não está disposta a aceitar os “desígnios do ocidente”, garantindo sua influência na Eurásia.

Não é possível prever o futuro, mas esse livro, com a ajuda da história, nos ajuda a entender o que pode vir por aí.

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Di Zhai

A must read for anyone and everyone!

Reviewed in Canada on April 17, 2021

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Chances are, you are probably aware of the worsening tension between the West and China and particularly between the United States and China. This book serves as a great reading for those who want to know why and how we got to this point in history as well as where we might head into the future.

The author is unbiased and provides a fair assessment of both sides. The author does a good job criticizing and praising both sides when needed. I am no fan of the Chinese government but when China does something like lifting millions of people out of poverty, I do think it is a feat to be praised. Don't get me wrong, I don't like the Chinese government as demonstrated by their reckless and unbelievable behaviour in recent years but understanding the success of China is the key to understand their society and culture and how they were able to maintain their power. Graham also provides times and scenarios where both governments had acted arrogantly or let their ignorance get to them. I do think it is important to show how both countries aren't as perfect as they seem. But given the choice, America, despite all its problems is the beacon of hope, change and democracy.

Graham Allison does an excellent examination of the cultural difference and nuance of both countries and how this plays in the bigger picture. To China, the US is an anomaly and it is only a matter of time before China ascends to its rightful place in what it believes as the leader of Asia if not the world. To the United States, China is a totalitarian state that is hell-bent on creating a new world order that will kill democracies and American ideals. China sees itself as the centre of the universe while the US sees itself as number one. However, this isn’t only the culture lesson as Graham also examines other cultural nuances, behaviour and thinking.

Nationalism and constant reminders of the century of humiliation created a ticking time bomb and will cause trouble for the CCP if they were to ever back down. This was a huge topic that rarely gets explored and Graham does a good job exploring it in his scenarios of what might trigger the next conflict. Graham also explores this in other aspects and how China instills a sense of duty to everyone and even those living in the west who have Chinese ancestry to act in defence and improvement of the motherland.

The book talks about History, economics, Domestic politics, International/geopolitics and so much more. The book also has extra pages of information for those who are interested. The book includes an index, is full of rich information, detailed citations, footnotes and sources. Really useful for any geopolitical buffs and for further digging on interesting statements such as Hillary Clinton saying how she doesn't want to live in a world dominated by the Chinese. Just be warned that the book does go a bit heavy on the history side but it is crucial in understanding the world we live in today.

Although the book does provide a blueprint for peace, I believe that war may happen in the future. Given the information that Graham brought up shows that humans would always repeat the same mistakes and given enough time, it wouldn't be surprising if China and the US fought a war. Let this book serve as a warning or a preview of what might come in the future.

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Kronemeyer

Great book on big conflicts throughout history

Reviewed in Germany on July 2, 2023

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Graham Allison vividly tells us not only about the US/Chinese Rivalvry, but also about the ones which have greatly influenced our modern day world. Using Thucydides Trap to explain "great power conflict" in the past but also the present is an interesting perspective worth keeping in mind, when looking at the conflicts of any century... and the ones to come.

GL

Le pourquoi des affrontements entre puissances rivales?

Reviewed in France on October 26, 2022

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Une des explications possibles des rivalités entre puissances étayée par des références Historiques variées et plutôt bien choisies. Reste l'imprévu la contingence qui ont aussi leur place et qui ne sont pas sans effets sur le déroulement des faits historiques. A trop systématiser l'ouvrage perd un peu de sa pertinence.

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Juanbsg

Excelente

Reviewed in Spain on August 7, 2022

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No sólo es un tema de actualidad muy bien tratado; pero un ensayo interesante sobre la resolución de conflictos

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Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Hardcover – May 30, 2017

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