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Don't Believe Everything You Think: The 6 Basic Mistakes We Make in Thinking Paperback – Illustrated, May 2, 2006
Purchase options and add-ons
- Print length286 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherPrometheus
- Publication dateMay 2, 2006
- Dimensions6.08 x 0.65 x 8.99 inches
- ISBN-101591024080
- ISBN-13978-1591024088
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Editorial Reviews
Review
"This is an informative, interesting, and entertaining contribution ...[Kida] goes beyond simply describing our false beliefs to describing the ways in which we acquire them. This book is a valuable resource in the ongoing, difficult process of developing critical thinking." -- Skeptical Inquirer
"Even the most rational-minded readers may be surprised by how many errors in thinking they make without even noticing. Those looking to sharpen their critical thinking and decision-making skills will appreciate this eye-opening book." -- Kirkus Reports
Listed as a Critical Thinking Classic in Skeptic magazine
"Don't Believe Everything You Think is a treat. Thomas Kida brings the science of psychology to the public, explaining how we often believe things because we want to, even when they are not true...Even if you haven't worried about the minefields of thinking, you'll want to read this book." -- Elizabeth Loftus, Distinguished Professor at the University of California, Irvine and former President of the Association for Psychological Science
"How can we tell the difference between what is true and false? The answer is science and critical thinking, a process that Thomas Kida, in this exceptionally readable and delightfully informative book, explicates with clarity. His '6 basic mistakes we make in thinking' should be printed on a laminated wallet-sized card and examined every morning before we go out into the world." -- Michael Shermer, publisher of Skeptic magazine, columnist for Scientific American, and author of Why People Believe Weird Things
About the Author
Product details
- Publisher : Prometheus; Illustrated edition (May 2, 2006)
- Language : English
- Paperback : 286 pages
- ISBN-10 : 1591024080
- ISBN-13 : 978-1591024088
- Item Weight : 9.9 ounces
- Dimensions : 6.08 x 0.65 x 8.99 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #251,662 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #211 in Philosophy of Logic & Language
- #689 in Popular Psychology Personality Study
- #816 in Cognitive Psychology (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
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About the author

Thomas Kida (Amherst, MA) is a professor in the Isenberg School of Management at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst and the author of many articles on decision-making.
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I did some research of my own and found this book. I have been a reader of Skeptic Magazine, and many other books and sources, so this was a bit basic for me, but for the person who was temporarily "lost" this book has been a revelation. With permission from my client and his spouse, here is the "book report" I assigned him to write for the court. I had to rate this book five stars because it was the perfect book for her problem. She is using this report as a point of reference with her counselor too.
Book Report by (My client's spouse)
Don't Believe Everything You Think
By Thomas Kida
This book is about how we make many mistakes in our thought processes and how we have a tendency to lean toward believing what is false rather than what is true, stories rather than statistics, and try and confirm our own preconceived ideas rather than be open-minded and learn the truth about certain topics.
Chapter 1 is about weird beliefs and not thinking scientifically. It shows many examples on how people have chosen to believe "mystical" or "supernatural" things instead of seeking the truth and analyzing things through scientific method prior to belief and/or action. This type of belief system is called Pseudoscientific thinking and is a common mistake for many, if not most, people including myself.
Chapter 2 is about being skeptical to extraordinary claims and examining the evidence thoroughly before coming to a conclusion and especially before acting upon the conclusion. We must consider several hypothesis to each claim and determine the best and most probably (and realistic) hypothesis before believing.
Chapter 3 helps you to learn how to think like a scientist. A claim or a belief must be tested by gathering all the evidence and confirmed only through successive and very controlled tests, preferably with different subjects and conditions and the results should lead to the same conclusions based on facts and recorded events.
Chapter 4 is about how chance and coincidence play a large role in daily events and interactions. It helps to show how we have a tendency to put a reason on everything that we see happen and also how we try and put a pattern to things, which can lead to trying to predict the future (such as future wars and disasters, stocks, sports, etc..). This can lead to believing in many superstitious things.
Chapter 5 is about seeing things that aren't there, which means that instead of accepting linked events similar only by chance and coincidence, we look for a greater meaning or force behind the events and try and rationalize the meaning to why this has happened or is happening. Thinking this way can lead to hallucinations and even mass hysteria and has before in the past. This leads people to take action on beliefs that are completely false and self-realized.
Chapter 6 continues examining the thought patterns that lead us to look for underlying causes to events and ignore the coincidences that happen, but expands to show how this pattern of thinking leads us to train ourselves to make connections that are imagined. We must look at the statistics with these such beliefs and the true events that can be linked together to see how our thought patterns can lead us to imagine these connections and how random chance calculations can attest for most if not all of these occurrences.
Chapter 7 is about how we try and predict the future, not only by looking into bible prophecy and predictions from people such as Nostradamus, but also in regards to things such as the economy, the stock market, and the environment. Bible prophecy and predictions are so vague that it is easy to make many things "fit" into their predictions. This is why we have a tendency to learn from the "experts" regarding these prophecies and predictions and yet each one teaches a different outcome of the same prophecies than the others do.
Chapter 8 helps to explain how we seek to confirm our pre-conceived ideas, or what we already believe. Rather than look at facts with an open mind, we have a tendency to look at what confirms our beliefs and ignore the things that don't, yet claiming to have an open mind willing to accept any and all conclusions. We must truly look at the facts and statistics with a logical and rational mind and come to the conclusion that is based upon only these facts and not what our pre-conceived ideas and belief systems lead us to.
Chapter 9 helps to show how we also simplify our thinking so that we ignore many facts and events that would normally lead us to the correct conclusions given a situation. This way of thinking can also lead us to jump to conclusions too early and also to stereotype others. To come to the best conclusions, besides testing claims and theories scientifically, we must take our time and collect as much data as we can, not over-simplifying complex decisions.
Chapter 10 is about framing problems and solutions based on the way we perceive the problem. If we view things a certain way we could make a completely different decision than if we viewed them another way. One of the big factors that affects the way we frame decisions is the way that the data is presented to us. This is why it is important to look at problems and facts with an open mind from different points of view (or no point of view if possible) before coming to decisions.
Chapter 11 explains how we have faulty memories, and even though many people believe that all your past memories are still in your brain somewhere and can be retrieved through hypnosis, it is true that we actually lose memories and forget things entirely especially as we age. The brain can be compared to a computer hard-drive in which as it fills up, it needs to erase or dump memory storage to allow new and recent memories and data to be stored. As we try and remember past events, our minds can alter what really happened as it reconstructs the events so that what is remembered is not what really happened. We can even create fictitious memories based on mental suggestions from external sources.
Chapter 12 is about the influence of authority figures and how we have a tendency to believe what the higher percentage of experts believe. Our beliefs and actions can be significantly influenced by experts and authority figures. We tend to be more reliable and consistent when we are accountable to authority figures such as our bosses at work. Evidence that is received from others isn't very reliable unless we can verify the evidence as true for ourselves.
This book has 6 main points:
1) We prefer stories to statistics
2) We seek to confirm, not to question, our ideas (or beliefs)
3) We rarely appreciate the role of chance and coincidence in shaping events
4) We sometimes misperceive the world around us
5) We tend to oversimplify our thinking
6) We have faulty memories
This book has helped me to become much more critical and analytical in my thinking and in choosing what to believe as true. The errors that I made in the past were to stop thinking critically and to believe what was interesting to me as fact rather than to seek the truth for myself. This caused fear and concern for the future to grip me in a way that I was willing to make poor decisions that were based on faulty information, and in doing so I have caused our family harm by putting them through this (unnecessary worry, ed.) Learning the techniques from this book and also going to counseling is helping me to break free of these beliefs and fears and to focus on being a good husband and father and concentrating on the present time. These things are helping me to learn not to fear for the safety of our family, but to treat them with the love and respect that would give them a sense of safety and well-being.
"I am betting on tails. Heads has come up too many times, so tails is due to come up soon."
"See? My opinion is correct. These studies all back it up."
In the first case, the speaker's mistake is to rely on testimonial and anecdote rather than statistic and research. The second speakers mistake is what is called the "gambler's fallacy" - the belief that the odds a seperate event is affected by the events that happened previously. The third speaker is making the mistake of seeking confirmation for her beliefs to support them, rather than to simulteneously keep an eye out for contrary data.
These mistakes and more are amply exposed in this very entertaining and thought-provoking book devoted to - of course - detailing how our minds often lead us astray (and doubly so, because all the while, they fool us into believing that this is not happening!).
Author Thomas Kida - a business professor specializing in analyzing the abstract art of decision making - takes us one by one through mistakes we tend to make in our thinking, filling each chapter with very interesting statistics and - GASP! - anecdotes to illustrate the point that even the mind which renders itself unassailable is often more prone to mistakes in thought than it might care to realize. (And far from being smug, he offers up several examples of how he engages in thought-mistakes without realizing it.)
Some of the most interesting? Well, many of us don't realize, but we ALL engage in the error of confirmation bias - seeking to confirm theories and ideas we agree with rather than seeking to question by looking also for counterevidence. And it really is suprising how many of us fall for such numerical confusions as believing in the above gambler's fallacy, or the idea that our favorite sports team is going on a "hot streak."
Similarly, the chapter detailing our tendency to discount the role of randomness in our lives - this is the chapter that touches on the 'gambler's fallacy' - was revealing. How many times have we "gotten lucky" at cards, and attributed our luck to fate rather than chance? How many lottery players do we know who refuse to let the lotto machine pick random mumbers, preferring to use their own "destined" numbers instead? Our reticence to acknkowledge how random life often is is even evident in the proliferation of stock brokers and weather reporters - both making a living by trying to "unrandomize" more-or-less random phenomenon.
This book is as entertaining as it is eye-opening. It is filled with enough examples to keep you hooked. Of course, when all is said and done, the examples are a means towards an end, rather than an end in themselves. They are a means to - it is hoped - make us aware of the pitfalls of thought so that we might attempt to avoid some of them.
I don't think it is an understatement to say that after reading this book, you will never look at gamblers, stock-brokers, faith healers, motivational speakers, statisticians, eye-witnesses in court cases or... yourself... in the same way again.
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All this may well be right, but Kida's error lies in what he does with these data:
"Oftentimes investors move their money into a fund that has experienced good recent performance. However, statistcs tell us that we have regression to the mean. That is, if a fund is currently outperforming the market, its performance is likely to drop in the future to bring it back to average. And so, if we buy into a fund right after it has posted recent gains, we're likely to be in for a fall. In effect, going after strong past performance often means we take money out of funds that are likely to rebound, and put it into funds that are ready to drop. "
Kida has misunderstood regression towards the mean, and has committed an error known as the gambler's fallacy (which he had already discussed in an earlier chapter).
Let us suppose that fund manager's are indeed irrelevent, and that a fund has a 50/50 chance of underperforming or overperforming the market each year. If this assumption is indeed correct - and this is indeed Kida's argument, then whether the fund will outperform or underperform the market this year is entirely unconnected with whether the fund outperformed or underperfomed the market last year.
If Kida is correct, then it makes no difference in the long run whether we leave the money where it is or move it (except for dealing charges incurred of course), because all funds will eventually do equally well.
If we buy into a fund right after it has posted gains then it is wrong to expect that we are in for a big fall. We are just as likely to do well (or badly) as if we buy into a fund that recently posted very poor gains.
But what is regression towards the mean then?
If we take the whole "population" of funds, and we measure all their respective gains each year, we come up with a mean (average) gain for all funds. Now, suppose we choose the 100 best performing funds and measure their gains - because these are the best perfroming funds, their mean gain will, of course, be higher than the mean for all funds.
Let us suppose that their mean gain was twice that of all funds.
Now next year we measure these means again. The mean gain for all funds and the mean for what were last year's 100 best funds. What we find is that the mean for the 100 best funds of last year is now much closer to the mean of all funds. If fund performance is entirely random then that mean may be less than the mean for all funds, or more - but it will almost certainly be less than twice that of all funds.
Why does this happen? Because there was nothing special about the 100 best funds, and there is no guarantee that the funds that did well last year will do well this year. Thus their average should approach the population average.
But any individual fund could still be in the top 100 - and we would expect that to be the case. Regression towards the mean is only concerned with averages.
Still not convinced?
By Kida's principle - moving money into an outperforming fund sets you up for a fall. Thus it would follow that moving money into an underperforming fund will set you up for a gain. Therefore, one should put money into the underperforming funds as the best strategy for success.
But it doesn't work. Because Kida is wrong.
If the performance of a fund is random, the best strategy for success is to buy the fund with the lowest charges and leave your money where it is (or better still - just buy the shares that all the funds hold, and hold the shares)








