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William Poundstone

The Doomsday Calculation: How an Equation that Predicts the Future Is Transforming Everything We Know About Life and the Universe Hardcover – June 4, 2019

by William Poundstone (Author)

6 customer reviews

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From the author of Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?, a fascinating look at how an equation that foretells the future is transforming everything we know about life, business, and the universe.

In the 18th century, the British minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes devised a theorem that allowed him to assign probabilities to events that had never happened before. It languished in obscurity for centuries until computers came along and made it easy to crunch the numbers. Now, as the foundation of big data, Bayes' formula has become a linchpin of the digital economy.

But here's where things get really interesting: Bayes' theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the "many worlds" interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive?

The Doomsday Calculation tells how Silicon Valley's profitable formula became a controversial pivot of contemporary thought. Drawing on interviews with thought leaders around the globe, it's the story of a group of intellectual mavericks who are challenging what we thought we knew about our place in the universe. The Doomsday Calculation is compelling reading for anyone interested in our culture and its future.

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"A very interesting and definitive book on this subject."―J. Richard Gott III

"One of the best science writers of our time has taken on one of the most interesting and important subjects of all time -- how to predict the future under great uncertainty. What are the odds that a nuclear weapon will detonate by accident? Is there a chance that humanity will destroy itself this century? What is the probability that aliens are out there? Will we colonize the galaxy? Are we living in a computer simulation? Is your marriage or partnership about to come to an end? These seemingly unrelated questions may be answered through one equation and a handful of principles that, when applied, may very well save humanity. A gripping read."―Michael Shermer, publisher of Skeptic magazine and author of Heavens on Earth

About the Author

William Poundstone is the author of sixteen books, including Head in the Cloud, Rock Breaks Scissors, Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?, How Would You Move Mount Fuji?, and Fortune's Formula. He has written for The Believer, The Economist, Encyclopaedia Britannica, Esquire, Harper's, Harvard Business Review, the New York Times op-ed page and Book Review, Village Voice, and many other publications. He won the 2011 Excellence in Financial Journalism Award.

Hardcover: 320 pages
Publisher: Little, Brown Spark (June 4, 2019)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0316440701
ISBN-13: 978-0316440707
Product Dimensions: 6.4 x 1.3 x 9.6 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review: 6 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #195,923 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #43 in Mars
- #373 in Astrophysics & Space Science (Books)
- #257 in Cosmology (Books)

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Shaun Comfort

From Gott to Fermi - Excellent Read

June 7, 2019

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

As a fan of ‘Fortune’s Formula’ I was excited to his latest book - particularly knowing that it would discuss the Fermi paradox and Gott’s Copernicus model. Poundstone does a great job summarizing the various strong opinions and rationales among the physics community. Poundstone’s detailed writing style and exposition of the scientific context makes Gott’s proposed solution to the Fermi paradox more credible (to me) than the typical ones I’ve read. THe sections on fine tuning and observers was excellent as well. Overall, very good book and worth the wait. I will be re-reading sections of this many times to come in the future.

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Interesting Premise but Doesn't Deliver Fully

June 30, 2019

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

This book has an interesting premise: based upon Bayes theorem, we can estimate the number of years that mankind will exist. He comes up with the number of 760 but really doesn't show how he got there (maybe the math is too complex, or the logic is too complex, but if it is, he should have put it in an appendix). He goes through some examples of application of Bayes Theorem. I especially like the one with the two tubs. But, he doesn't follow-up. Instead, we get lost in the usual physics mumbo jumbo about multi-universes, and how artificial intelligence is going make mankind extinct, etc. There probably is a rationale, but he doesn't really show it. Such a disappointment.

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John Golden

A masterpiece for people looking for a new way of thinking

August 20, 2019

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

This book looks doomsday dead in the eyes and proposes to send math to figure it out. I will confess that I had never heard of the Copernican Delta-T method when I first read the book, but now I think about these kinds of Fermi problems everywhere. This book, an excellent companion to Superforecasting presents an epic and interesting mathematical tale. It's everything one should expect from William Poundstone.

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J. R. Stewart

Works as Expected

August 10, 2019

Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase

Package arrived as expected in excellent condition.

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Jake Banner

We are all doomed . . . or not

June 10, 2019

Format: Hardcover

Of the numerous approaches tackling doomsday predictions, Bayes’’ rule provides the lynchpin for serious analysis. A simple idea that can easily become encumbered with intricate calculations, the rule tells us to make priors as to what we should expect to happen and update accordingly as new information presents.

The problem becomes increasingly difficult as we consider the current makeup of humans juxtaposed against our possible future selves. Extrapolating from where and who we are now into a future of augmented humans becomes problematic as our selection criteria changes.

The author lays out the case for and against competing approaches, balancing the arguments appropriately. The first half of the book is, more or less, concerned with analyzing these approaches and leaving it to the reader to synthesize the best takeaways of each. Good research, good analysis.

The most interesting part of the book for me was the second half of the book which delved in greater detail with AI, ETs, and our capacity to circumvent possible doomsday scenarios. We are not grown up enough to take these existential threats seriously but, as usual, we will do so when confrontation becomes inevitable and, possibly, our efforts too late. That’s my take and not necessarily the author’s opinion.

The author’s foray into possible extinction events is disturbing. I didn’t have to know about a “vacuum metastability event” (If you don’t know what that is, I won’t give you the punchline except to say, it ain’t pretty). Just kidding actually; it’s amazing how many ways there are for us to screw up!

If you are reading this, you have survived so far. Congratulations!

11 people found this helpful

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drbobo

Predict Anything

June 6, 2019

Format: Kindle Edition

Fascinating book on applications using the Bayesian theorem and relatively simple mathematics for prediction of a variety of things including the end of humanity. Definitely worthy of your time.

7 people found this helpful

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