The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner Kindle Edition

Every adult needs to read this book and put pressure on Congress to reduce our On Alert Nuclear status. .. below is a quote from Kruschev a few years after the Cuban missle crisis.

“When I asked the military advisors if they could assure me that holding fast would not result in the death of five hundred million human beings, they looked at me as though I was out of my mind, or what was worse, a traitor. The biggest tragedy, as they saw it, was not that our country might be devastated and everything lost, but that the Chinese or the Albanians might accuse us of appeasement or weakness. So I said to myself, “To hell with these maniacs. If I can get the United States to assure me that it will not attempt to overthrow the Cuban government, I will remove the missiles.” That is what happened, and now I am reviled by the Chinese and the Albanians.… They say I was afraid to stand up to a paper tiger. It is all such nonsense. What good would it have done me in the last hour of my life to know that though our great nation and the United States were in complete ruins, the national honor of the Soviet Union was intact? “

That last line, indeed the whole quote, deserves to be studied by all those whose fingers hover over the trigger to a Doomsday Machine.

The Doomsday Machine by Ellsberg is an excellent introduction to the complexities of nuclear weapons and their deployment. Ellsberg covers the period of the 1960s, especially the first half, and the nature of the command and control of nuclear weapons deployment. His views were based upon his consulting as a RAND employee and having the ability to move in and around the multiplicity of players in this area. One may think that the President is the sole point of activation of a nuclear release but as Ellsberg so clearly shows the ability to deploy was and most likely still is diffused to the lowest levels.

Ellsberg depicts a Major in South Korea in charge of a bunch of nuclear armed F100s, all equipped with tactical but deadly nuclear bombs, who has taken it upon himself to determine when his pilots will deploy their weapons. Ellsberg also infers that the pilots themselves could even individually make the decision to deploy. Ellsberg does discuss the details of how a multiple F100 deployment may very well blow some of the F100s to shreds when the other have deployed due to the wide area blast effects.

The discussion of the SIOP (Single Integrated Operational Plan) plans and the various attack options that the US had developed. In contrast he does not discuss the Red Integrated Strategic Offensive Plan (RISOP) plan which is a counter to SIOP. Yet his discussion of the military and its nonchalant acceptance of 100 million casualties, namely deaths, was typical of military planner during this period. He does a superb job in characterizing the mindset of the planners and those in command regarding their near comfort in seeing just 100 million dead Americans as long as they could exterminate a larger number of Russians and Chinese.

Ellsberg's telling of this situation and in this time frame is unique because he was at the level of an observer, having no political gain to be made, being at RAND and being but a consultant, albeit one with extraordinary access.

Ellsberg does spend a reasonable amount of space on the issues of limiting nuclear weapons especially first strike capabilities. However as he had already detailed first strike management could already be out of the hands of an President. In fact the President, who may think he or she has the "button" may be circumvented by some field commander, or worse, by a single pilot or sub commander. The movie Fail Safe startled Ellsberg by its reality. Worse was that it portrayed a Doomsday Machine which would only deter if the other side was aware of it.

To a degree, my time on nuclear weapons was a decade later than Ellsberg, ironically my first day after my PhD was the day Ellsberg's material hit the NY Times. Coming from MIT, and Ellsberg then being at MIT, I was looked at a bit askance. Yet over the next decade as I became involved in the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, especially during the Carter period, it was clear that the only way to use a nuclear weapon was not to use a nuclear weapon. The RISOP scenarios showed the annihilation of life on the planet. There was no way to win, first strike or otherwise. A Russian and US nuclear war was the destruction of all. Ironically in my later discussions with my Russian partners after the fall it was clear that they too understood this, positioning or not.

The risk is a rogue player, one who can really push the button. That perhaps is more of a reality today than during the 60s and 70s. Ellsberg's book is a must read for anyone interested in the nuclear debate, a debate whose only solution in my opinion is not to use the device.

As in his previous book, Ellsberg writes a clear, lucid prose from an insider's perspective that few have shared. The total picture he shares of our nuclear program is chilling, mirroring and going beyond other revelations of the past few decades. Among other things, his presentation from nearby further adds to my impression that American military planners of the 50's and 60's had lost their reason, were consumed by a lust for killing beyond the dreams of the Mongol hordes. Civilian control of the military has become increasingly tenuous with the creation of a permanent military state, and nowhere is this shown more clearly than in the face-off with Admiral Arleigh Burke, when the Secretary of Defense's office gets a tongue-lashing from the Admiral for interfering with a ship deployment that was violating our treaty agreement with Japan not to put nuclear weapons on their territory. It's just as disturbing to see the lengths to which the Pentagon went to keep the President and Secretary of Defense from even knowing that they had a top-secret plan for total nuclear war, of which not even the acronym could be spoken.

Some people are fond of saying that the tree of liberty must be watered with the blood of patriots. Ellsberg, who at one time faced 120 years in prison for exposing government deception of the people, military deception of the government, and military deception of itself, is a prime example of a patriot. I'm grateful for this book, which deserves a wide audience.