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Economic Optimization of Innovation & Risk by [Robert Shuler]

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Robert Shuler

Economic Optimization of Innovation & Risk Kindle Edition

by Robert Shuler (Author) Format: Kindle Edition

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A Theory of Crash Rate for Private & Public Projects with Critical or non-Critical systems. Examine possibilities for managing the crash rate of countries and even the world. Analyzing & managing risk has been a quest for 5000 years, and is essential to everything from water supplies, finance, and agriculture to computers and space travel. At last there is a quantitative theory and a simple equation that allows you to:

- choose your failure rate
- get there optimally
- avoid unexpected effects
- profit where the competition fails

Work a project example based on real-world data to manage the risk of a for-profit 10-passenger transport to an orbital tourism facility.

Print length

100 pages
Language

English
Publication date

April 10, 2015
File size

2874 KB
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Editorial Reviews

Review

"Very interesting, packed with intriguing and thought-provoking information." - Gerald J. S. Wilde, father of Risk Homeostasis theory

"Creative, thoughtful, and important - adds an innovative and applicable concept to the risk-assessment and decision-making toolbox. Highlyrecommended!" - The Columbia Review

"... should have a particular appeal to economists, engineers, businessmen and investors alike. However the application doesn't have to be limited to major projects or big business, due to it's very essence, once the pragmatic nature of the theory is understood it can be applied by laypeople as well because it does offer a stimulating, outside of the box view of handling risk in any venture in life." - Pacific Book Review

From the Author

This is the author's official edition, with over 100 pages (187 Kindle "pages") explaining the theory and its implications, with a worked out example, application to personal projects, and application to motorway safety. It contains full color illustrations.

ASIN ‏ : ‎ B00VY7YG0I
Publication date ‏ : ‎ April 10, 2015
Language ‏ : ‎ English
File size ‏ : ‎ 2874 KB
Simultaneous device usage ‏ : ‎ Unlimited
Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
Screen Reader ‏ : ‎ Supported
Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Not Enabled
Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Enabled
Print length ‏ : ‎ 100 pages
Lending ‏ : ‎ Enabled

Best Sellers Rank: #2,713,088 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- #585 in Technical Project Management (Kindle Store)
- #1,172 in Business Management Science
- #1,198 in Engineering Project Management

Customer Reviews:
8 ratings

About the author

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Robert Shuler

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Robert combines 50 years investing experience with the knack for finding hidden principles of a successful rocket scientist with half a dozen patents and several dozen publications in fields ranging from economics (corporate risk compensation, the equity premium) to physics (inertia & quantum gravity). He lives in Texas with his wife Natasha.

You can contact me or get new release notices at http://shulerresearch.wordpress.com/

Customer reviews

5 star		43%
4 star		36%
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1 star		21%

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Top reviews from the United States

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Theodore Koukouvitis

Fascinating, insightful and readily applicable

Reviewed in the United States on May 16, 2017

Verified Purchase

This book offers an in-depth analysis of the economic impact of crashes. The proposed crash rate model gives a brilliant interpretation of how operational crash rate is affected by a number of key parameters, specifically: value of features; cost of manufacturing, marketing and distribution; cost per crash; per-problem engineering cost; and defect ratio.

Shuler’s crash rate model builds upon risk compensation theory, giving project managers and process improvement specialists a readily applicable method to identify critical parameters that might behave differently than intuitively expected. The model might seem out-of-the-box, but the theory behind it is solid, and it appears to hold true across multiple disciplines: from air travel safety, to software development, to manned spaceflight.

When I started reading, I was half-expecting another long-winded book on economic theory that spends hundreds of pages to reiterate what is already known. I was pleasantly surprised, as the author respects the reader’s time and intelligence, offering a succinct and insightful study with virtually zero repetition.

Bottom line: this is a valuable read for any reader (professional or otherwise), who seeks to understand and anticipate crash risk.

One person found this helpful

Helpful

`Someone must make a decision whether the objectives are worth meeting at the current time and technology level.'

Reviewed in the United States on April 18, 2015

Verified Purchase

Texas author Robert Shuler has placed before the public some heady reading and stimulus for thought and change - MONEY, WEALTH & WAR, THE EQUITY PREMIUM PUZZLE - INTRINSIC GROWTH & MONETARY POLICY, and now ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION OF INNOVATION & RISK. His credentials include 50 years investing experience with the knack for finding hidden principles of a successful rocket scientist with half a dozen patents and several dozen publications in fields ranging from economics (corporate risk compensation, the equity premium) to physics (inertia & quantum gravity) during his long career with NASA. .

This is not an easy book for the average person to assimilate, but then what new out of the box thinking or ideas or predictions are at first reading? But give Robert Shuler your undivided attention is this exceptionally well-written investigation into risk and its permutations in the way we today assess everything from Internet apps to spacecraft to investments and once his ideas become negotiable, the way we view the world at present and in the future change.
Some examples of his presentation include, `The importance of risk management to ordinary processes in our economy cannot be overstated, and often the exact terminology is not in evidence. For example, do you call what farmer's do "risk management?" Probably not, yet most American farmers pre-sell their crops on futures exchanges. "Futures" are a tool of risk management, to hedge against unexpected price variations.... Nearly every American industry which uses large amounts of a market commodity also engages in risk management via various derivative financial instruments based on that commodity. That includes financial hedging on financial markets themselves. Without risk management, much of the productivity of our economy would likely be lost, because facing uncertainty, companies would not invest in supplying the full potential consumption of the markets.' And `The more sophisticated modern practice of risk management involves mathematically complex futures and derivatives, and to a large degree the productivity of civilization depends on this discipline. In some contexts "risk management" is used to mean the management and adjustment of components in a risk analysis process, or even more commonly the management of quality, sometimes known as "quality management."`

Or as he explains in his description of the relevance of the book, `A Theory of Crash Rate for Private & Public Projects with Critical or non-Critical systems. Examine possibilities for managing the crash rate of countries and even the world. Analyzing & managing risk has been a quest for 5000 years, and is essential to everything from water supplies, finance, and agriculture to computers and space travel. At last there is a quantitative theory and a simple equation that allows you to choose your failure rate, get there optimally, avoid unexpected effects , and profit where the competition fails.' And in the end the author clarifies his précis: `A model has been developed that relates development process parameters to operationally deployed crash rate. This model operates at a corporate level, and provides insight into what kinds of changes might affect product reliability and safety. There is a rough analogy to risk compensation, though in detail the models address different regimes, one risk and the other economics. Process improvement and feature development are often culprits in unexpected outcomes. Testing adds to costs, but has a predictable positive outcome. Excessive value pressure is often overlooked as a culprit for complex systems, and lowering the value of function is equally often overlooked as an additional tool to reduce crash rates. The model gives good agreement with observed safety differences between auto and air travel. Take the lessons learned from attempting to make high energy vehicles fly through a vacuum with incredible accuracy, dodging cosmic rays, tolerating human error, and performing safely, and use them. Now that you have read and presumably understood this book, you have a powerful tool for analyzing and changing the rate at which huge and complicated things fail.'

Challenging? Of course, but then what new constructive thought process does not jar us into realistically approaching all projects, analyzing why things fail - and changing that! Grady Harp, April 15

3 people found this helpful

Helpful

Veritas Vincit

An Unexpectedly Insightful Guide

Reviewed in the United States on May 29, 2015

Verified Purchase

As we get older, it seems that more and more things need to be analyzed, measured, and considered before making any decisions. As someone relatively unfamiliar with concepts of risk a few years ago, it has now become something I think about quite often. This book promotes a generally business and innovation-directed optimization strategy, but that doesn't mean that the same foundational concepts can't be applied to life for lay readers. I found this book to be a bit dense in certain parts for my particular interests, but it wasn't written for me. I will be able to glean the valuable lessons from some of the lighter, more general sections, and use those same concepts and strategies in the framework of my own life. I don't know if this is the sort of book that will ever be a big seller, as the target niche is small (but growing), but I'm certainly glad I stumbled across it.

One person found this helpful

Helpful

John J. Staughton

A Valuable Asset for Business Professionals and Laymen Alike

Reviewed in the United States on May 28, 2015

Verified Purchase

When this book was first suggested to me, I thought that it fell far afield of the type of book that I would normally read or enjoy, but as I dove into the philosophy and the strategies outlined in the book, it became clear that this unique perspective on managing risk was not limited to business or specific ventures, but to almost any decision in life. Optimizing your reactions to situations and protecting yourself in the event of failure are skills that can come in handy in many other areas of life. As a new business owner, I benefitted from the practical applications and the philosophical implications, and I have to hand it to Shuler - this isn't a topic that can be written about without being a boring, but he managed to hold my interest and give me plenty to think about by the time I finished. Nicely done and highly insightful.

One person found this helpful

Helpful

Joseph Perera

Success or failure?

Reviewed in the United States on June 18, 2020

Verified Purchase

Any project great or small has a probability of success or failure. This book creates awareness of the balance between success and failure touching such major space projects and ordinary day to day affairs. The cover of the book itself is an illustrated story. The ideal book for students as well as planners, and any other person pursuing knowledge.

Helpful

Top reviews from other countries

Marta Cheng

The Crash Rate Theory – Practical Application or Lofty Concept?

Reviewed in Canada on June 12, 2015

Verified Purchase

The Economic Optimization of Innovation and Risk is written by Robert Shuler, an engineer with NASA, Avionic Systems Division, and at first blush, may appear to be a book extolling the virtues of a lofty concept, the economic optimization of innovation and risk otherwise understood to be the “crash rate theory”. Shuler’s book breaks down the concept into various stages; Approaches to Understanding Risk, Unexpected Outcomes, Development of the Theory, Analysis and Interpretation as well as Applying the Crash Rate Theory. The argument is that the concept of the crash rate theory is not just applicable to a business model but can also be applied to various paradigms like air travel safety as well as to crime or to war. In a nutshell, Shuler states that enhanced control over risk equals less of a loss – be it in lives or in money, etc.

While this book will most likely appeal to a specific audience, its message is straightforward: there is relevance in the crash rate theory. This is especially brought home by the author’s chilling words, simply put as follows: “The reader might wonder what the shoot down of MH 17 over Ukraine has to do with the theory of crash rate. Several things. First, the motivations and actions of the airline in deciding not to alter its flight path (several other airlines had already altered flight paths) was an economic one. Second, the reaction of the flying public to the twin crashes, the other being the mysterious disappearance of MH 370, was essentially the same as it would be to two clearly ‘at fault’ crashes. The public holds Malaysia Air responsible, and so does the crash rate equation.” How’s that for clear and succinct? There are other revelations in the book that are equally insightful, leaving readers believing that the crash rate theory isn’t a lofty concept after all…

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Economic Optimization of Innovation & Risk Kindle Edition

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Robert Shuler

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