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The Emerging Democratic Majority Paperback – February 10, 2004

3.8 out of 5 stars 47

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Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Scribner; Reprint edition (February 10, 2004)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 240 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0743254783
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0743254786
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 11.2 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.5 x 0.6 x 8.5 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    3.8 out of 5 stars 47

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3.8 out of 5 stars
3.8 out of 5
47 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Reviewed in the United States on September 2, 2002
With a great deal of insight and nearly zero partisan rhetoric, Judis and Teixeira (how DO you pronounce that?) offer an easy to read political primer about how social and economic cycles fit in with political cycles. Many political events that were mysterious to me were clearly explained, drawing on historical precedent right up through Election 2000. I found myself convinced that the authors know what is going to happen next in American politics.
The conclusion: the Democratic party will emerge as a new majority by the end of the decade. The Republicans may or may not retain the House this year, and GWB may or may not win re-election in 2004. The authors don't pretend to be fortune tellers; instead they chart trends based on comprehensive analysis.
The text backs up its logic with lots of figures, sometimes charted. Part of the book goes state by state for key states and regions, sometimes down to the county level to show what has been (and will be) happening. Each and every explanation made sense to me, without being too tedious to follow.
The only negative thing I can say is to echo something Joe Conason mentioned in Salon. The authors completely ignore the mainstream media bias against Gore in Election 2000. However, since that really isn't the topic of this book it doesn't take away from the five stars I give it.
54 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on October 11, 2004
For a few months now, I've been a fan of Ruy Teixeira's Internet blog, so it was inevitable that I would get around to reading the book that the website is based upon. His Internet writings may seem a little too optimistic at times, but one got the sense that he definitely knows what he's talking about when it comes to polling information. THE EMERGING DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY is a sober and analytical look at the trends and growing demographics that the authors conclude will result in an era in which Democratic policies will become the view held by most voters. The text gives a potted history of the Republicans and the Democrats during the course of the Twentieth Century, detailing when each party was at its highest and lowest points. Given the trends and the positions of the parties, the authors project the future based on the present and the recent past.

The format (and indeed the research the book consists of) is based upon a well-respected book from the late 60s, THE EMERGING REPUBLICAN MAJORITY. The authors of this book give credit where it's due; that earlier work was correct in its anticipation of what would become known as the Reagan Revolution. But since the 90s, Judis and Teixeira state that we've entered a period of transition, where neither party has been able to forcefully dictate the national conversation. The authors can only make predictions based on the available facts, but they make a very compelling argument. They look at changing demographics, geographical trends (the "blue" states vs. the "red" states), and the political philosophies of the coalitions that currently make up both parties.

The pillars of the Democratic party as it currently exists would seem to be much more in line with the general public than that of the Republicans, who are marginalizing themselves at a fairly fast rate. There's a lot of information contained here, it's displayed clearly, and each argument is backed up with a wealth of statistical data. Exit polling data and opinion polls make up a large part of their case, but an analysis of what ideas different groups of people seem most comfortable with is where the book is strongest. They highlight the growth of "ideopolises", places where ideas and services rather than goods are the main sources of employment and revenue. They see the growth of the "professional" class as the key to the Democrats' future as those people would appear to be much more open to that party's beliefs and much less happy with the direction of the Republican Party (dominated as it is by a weird and fracturing hybrid of neo-conservatives, religious fundamentalists, and anti-regulation economists).

While the model for what the near future will look like is the book's obvious and main selling point, I also found it informative to read the author's interpretation of the last century or so of political polling data. Naturally, their focus is upon the immediate past, but contained here is a nice summary of where both parties have come from. It's also very handy to have contained in one book a complete guide to all the regions of the United States and their current political stances. TV pundits make broad statements about Gore States and Bush States, but as one can see here, it's a little more complicated than that.

The book may be a little more statistic and fact oriented than most political tomes, but I found that refreshing in itself. The authors seem to be very much in favor of the "Progressive Centralism" that they predict will be the key to Democratic success, yet that dry enthusiasm never interferes with the objective facts concerning population and cultural changes. This is recommended to anyone with an interest in where the future of United States politics is moving.
5 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on September 30, 2013
I read this after reading James Carville's book on the same subject. I thought Carville's book was prescient because it was written in 2009 and essentially predicted the 2012 election, but this book was uncanny - especially considering that it was written right after the 2002 elections in which Republicans triumphed and W was at the peak of his popularity. The authors predicted the impending lunacy and unpopularity of the Iraq war before the war had actually gotten underway. It even predicted that Democrats could one day rely on 332 electoral college votes in presidential elections. Obama got 365 in 2008 and 332 in 2012. The Republicans are under the thrall of the Religious Right and the Tea Party, and have thus become a regional party for aging white males and racists. It will take decades for them to re-align themselves and embrace moderates. In the meantime we will enjoy 8 years of a (Hillary) Clinton administration, the government will continue to fund stem cell research, a national candidate who believes in creationism will unelectable, we will adopt sensible immigration policies, put non-Neandertals on the Supreme Court, enjoy universal access to healthcare, and watch Fox News continue on its path to irrelevancy. The future has never looked so good.
6 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on April 16, 2022
The concept of this book is essentially "how would Democrats benefit if the political dynamics of 2003 proceeded uninterrupted by unfolding reality and Republican counter-programming?" Which was a fun fantasy if you were a left-winger back in the Bush years but only mocks you from the bookshelf if you forget to eventually donate it to Goodwill.
4 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on February 13, 2024
Basically an equally bankrupt left-wing apologia to the right wing's "replacement theory," this book argues that well-intentioned manipulation of demographics will produce a liberal, single-party majority. Whether or not that's a good thing, or why it doesn't justify the far right's claim that white men are being "replaced" in America, is a question the authors avoid. Nevertheless, the book is well written, and loaded with statistics that have been creatively selected and interpreted to make the author's point. The predicted majority has not materialized, and some might argue this book is therefore obsolete. I think it's still worth reading for the same reason democratic peace theorists and eugenicists are still worth reading: to understand how the authors were wrong and why they thought they would be right.

Top reviews from other countries

M. McManus
5.0 out of 5 stars Trends that aid the Democrats
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on April 24, 2013
This book examines the changes that are taking place in American society. Significantly, this book was written at a time the Republicans were riding the crest of a wave following the election of George W Bush. Karl Rove was predicting the Republicans would dominate America 'permanently'. However, this book disagrees. The book notes that more and more American cities were and are becoming dependent upon industries that tend to attract liberals, such as computer science, NGOs and the visual arts and entertainment industries. The book calls these cities idea cities, or in Greek, 'Ideopolis' cities. As this happens, the large number and concentration of votes in these cities will mean the states they are in will be won in the electoral college by the Democrats. For example, North Carolina, traditionally a Republican state, has seen a huge surge in the number of people employed in its 'Research Triangle' cities. The book accurately predicted that North Carolina would trend to the Democrats (indeed, Obama won this state in 2008, and only narrowly lost it in 2012). Virginia, Nevada and Colorado, other states with large and growing 'ideopolis' cities, have also begun to lean towards the Democrats. In addition, other demographics such as blacks, Latinos and women have begun to identify with the Democrats for different reasons. For example, when fewer women worked, most women voted Republican out of identification with its family values image. As more and more women work and reject traditional values, they are less attracted to Republicans. This book is well worth a read if American politics interested you.
Luke Vaz
4.0 out of 5 stars Great book
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on January 6, 2013
The book taught me the importance of demographics in the modern political spectrum, whilst also giving reasons why Democrats will be increasingly dominant in the U.S. not only because of increased immigration lending to their base, minority supporters. Both parties will have to adapt to survive, the Republicans more so.