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Shaun Rein

The End of Cheap China: Economic and Cultural Trends that Will Disrupt the World Hardcover – March 27, 2012

by Shaun Rein (Author)

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An exposé on how the rise of China will affect the American way of life

The End of Cheap China is a fun, riveting, must-read book not only for people doing business in China but for anyone interested in understanding the forces that are changing the world.

Many Americans know China for manufacturing cheap products, thanks largely to the country's vast supply of low-cost workers. But China is changing, and the glut of cheap labor that has made everyday low prices possible is drying up as Chinese seek not to make iPhones, but to buy them. Shaun Rein, Founder of the China Market Research Group, puts China's continuing transformation from producer to large-scale consumer - a process that is farther along than most economists think - under the microscope, examining eight megatrends that are catalyzing change in China and posing threats to Americans' consumption-driven way of life.

Rein takes an engaging and informative approach to examining the extraordinary changes taking place across all levels of Chinese society, talking to everyone from Chinese billionaires and senior government officials to poor migrant workers and even prostitutes and drawing on personal stories and experiences from living in China since the 1990s as well as hard economic data. Each chapter focuses on a different aspect of China's transformation, from fast-improving Chinese companies to confident, optimistic Chinese women to the role of China's government, and at the end breaks down key lessons for readers to take away.

The End of Cheap China shows:

How rising labor and real estate costs are forcing manufacturers of cheap Chinese products to close, relocate, or move up the value stream
How a restructuring economy moving away from exports to domestic consumption, and rising incomes will create opportunities for foreign brands to sell products in China rather than just producing there
How Chinese consumption will build pressure on the global commodities markets, causing inflation and friction with other nations
How China's economic transformation spells the end of cheap consumption for Americans

China's days as a low cost production center are numbered. The End of Cheap China exposes the end of America's consumerist way of life and gives clear advice on how companies can succeed in the new world order.

Print length

240 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Wiley
Publication date

March 27, 2012
Dimensions

6.3 x 0.8 x 9.3 inches
ISBN-10

111817206X
ISBN-13

978-1118172063
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Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

Q & A with Shaun Rein, author of The End of Cheap China

Shaun Rein

What is your background with the Chinese economy?
I first came to China in the 1990s and studied it as a graduate student at Harvard. At that time, the word "cheap" summed up China. Land prices and salaries were low and the quality of China's production was inferior. It was still difficult to find a decent job. When walking outside the gates of factories, you used to run into swelling crowds of unemployed workers with cardboard signs touting their skill sets in the hopes of finding a job. That has all changed in the last decade due to the job creation spurred by multinationals investing billions of dollars. Now the biggest obstacle to growth in China for most firms is finding talent even with China's large population.

What are some of the biggest economic or cultural disruptions happening now in China that people and businesses should pay attention to?
Too many businesses underestimate how fast costs are rising in China and how rising costs won't change anytime soon. In 2011, 21 of China's 31 provinces increased the minimum wage an average of 22%. The government has set a plan to raise the minimum wage by 13% annually for the next five years to spur domestic consumption and wean away the country's reliance on exports. Many companies might be forced to relocate manufacturing to lower cost countries like Indonesia. However, the reality is China's work force and infrastructure is far superior, so China won't lose its dominance in manufacturing. The resulting higher input prices will force companies to accept squeezed margins or they will have to transfer higher costs to end consumers. Instead of being a deflationary force in the global economy, China will export inflation to the rest of the world. Already import prices from China in 2011 in America were up 3.6%, the highest on record. Consumers around the world better get used to seeing higher priced products in stores.

What kind of global impact will "the end of cheap China" have?
Aside from higher costs, "the end of cheap China" means that China as a nation will become more powerful in global affairs which could cause more friction. Chinese companies will not only be investing more in countries like Canada to secure access to natural resources but Chinese brands will start selling products abroad and acquiring Western brands, as Chinese auto manufacturer Geeley with its acquisition of the Volvo brand. It also means China's government will take a larger role in global institutions like the United Nations and G20 in order to safeguard its interests. The key to China's rise as a superpower is to ensure that it is integrated enough into world affairs to reduce possible tension and to stop the fear-mongering and hysteria about China's rise.

Review

"Brilliantly written" --Financial Times

"A Publishers Weekly Top 10 Business Book of 2012"

"Rein masterfully captures where [consumers] have been and where they dream of going" --Fortune

"Rein combines elegant writing and methodical research. Years of working in China have given him access to important players. Incisive interviews with billionaires, business executives, government officials, and migrant workers guide the pulse of the narrative.... essential reading." --USA Today

“Engaging. Full of vivid anecdotes from Chinese billionaires to senior party officials and even prostitutes. For any foreigners thinking about doing business in the Middle Kingdom, 'The End of Cheap China' is a good place to start" --Reuters

"Must Read" --Consulting Magazine

"A Lively Read" --Straits Times

"An Inside Look" --Industry Week

"Compelling, Engaging, Informative" --The Cayman Islands Journal

"Lively, Well-Written Book" --South China Morning Post

"Engaging, highly readable style with real-life examples from vast catalog of China research. For good measure, Rein wedded into China's elite, marrying the granddaughter of 1980s Politburo chairman Marshal Ye Jianying" --Asia Times

From the Inside Flap

China is known for manufacturing cheap products, thanks largely to the country's vast supply of low-cost workers. But China is changing, and the glut of cheap labor that has made everyday low prices possible is drying up, as the Chinese people seek not to make iPhones, but to buy them. This evaporating labor pool will disrupt supply chains and consumption habits around the world.

Rein takes an engaging and informative approach to examining the changes taking place across all levels of Chinese society, talking to everyone from Chinese billionaires and senior government officials, to poor migrant workers, and even prostitutes. He draws on personal stories and experiences from living in China since the 1990s, as well as hard economic data. Each chapter focuses on a different aspect of China's transformation--from trailblazing Chinese companies to newly employed Chinese women to the role of China's government--and at the end breaks down key lessons for readers to take away.

You'll learn:

How rising labor and real estate costs are forcing manufacturers of cheap Chinese products to close, relocate, or move up the value stream
How China's move away from exports to domestic consumption will create opportunities for foreign brands to sell products in China rather than just producing there
How Chinese consumption will build pressure on the global commodities markets, causing both inflation and friction with other nations
How China's economic transformation spells the end of cheap consumption for Americans

China's days as a low-cost production center are numbered. The End of Cheap China exposes the end of our consumerist way of life, and gives clear advice on how companies can succeed in the new world order.

From the Back Cover

Praise for The End of Cheap China

"The End of Cheap China is an indispensable guide to the rapid changes in China's economy and society. Shaun Rein has observed first hand the developments that shape the attitudes and behavior of his own coming generation. His firm has analyzed, as well as helped shape, the markets he describes. A practical must-read for anyone dealing with China, doing business there, or simply trying to understand what is going on." -- Ambassador Nicholas Platt President Emeritus, Asia Society, author of China Boys: How U.S. Relations with the PRC Began and Grew, A Personal Memoir

"A core thesis behind the launching of my China fund in 2010 wasthat the drivers of China's economy were changing. Shaun Rein's new book examines these trends in detail and their important implications."--Anthony Bolton, President, Investments, Fidelity Worldwide Investment; Head, Fidelity China Special Situations PLC

"Shaun Rein is a keen observer of contemporary China.He has an eye for the detail that unfolds a larger story. He is a student of Chinese culture and history and a practitioner of its present. He knows the markets and consumers of a maturing-- but still dynamic--Chinese economy. As 'cheap China' comesto an end, Rein's insights are all the more valuable." -- William C. Kirby, Spangler Family Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School, T. M. Chang Professor of China Studies, Harvard University

About the Author

Shaun Rein is the Founder and Managing Director of the China Market Research Group (CMR), the world's leading strategic market intelligence firm focused on China.

Millions of readers read his weekly column for CNBC on business in China. He previously wrote a weekly column for Forbes on business in China and leadership. Before that, he wrote for BusinessWeek's Asia Insight column . He is often featured in the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, The Financial Times, Bloomberg, and the New York Times. He is regularly interviewed by American Public Radio's Marketplace and NPR. He frequently appears to deliver commentary on CNBC's Squawk Box, Bloomberg TV, CBS News, and CNN International TV.

He earned his Master's degree from Harvard University focused on China's economy and received a BA Honours from McGill University. He lives in Shanghai with his wife and son.

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Wiley; 1st edition (March 27, 2012)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 240 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 111817206X
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1118172063
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 14.9 ounces
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.3 x 0.8 x 9.3 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #3,291,920 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #4,496 in International Economics (Books)
- #7,862 in Economic Conditions (Books)

Customer Reviews:
101 ratings

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3 star		7%
2 star		3%
1 star		4%

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Top reviews from the United States

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Andrew

Well done book, but too general, i.e. Rein covered too much.

Reviewed in the United States on May 29, 2014

Verified Purchase

I like this book, and some of which I can readily identify with, having been in China in numerous trips. A few caveats though are in order. Shaun makes the case that "young Chinese women " are pampered , more than their 'western' sisters. I beg to differ. The examples Shaun took are of the major cities, and most of China's population is in the farming countryside. i.e. life in the country side is tough as nails although rapidly improving. I can well believe Shaun's other stories, but since I have been to Chongqing, and less financially endowed regions of China, than Shanghai and Beijing, I have viewed women issues very differently from Shaun. The rest of the book has exceptionally well done stories as to Shaun's experiences. While the stories are told with wit and verve, the criticism I have, is that Shaun has picked first rate examples, but not sufficiently developed their import. I do though on balance have to strongly recommend this volume, as a well done rebuttal against some of the trenchant horror stories in American media. It is a period piece, and for that reason I recommend it as a first person introduction to a rapidly modernizing country the USA will have much to do with in the 21st century. Shaun could have made a book out of each chapter. There is no doubt he could do just that as a follow up.

One other thing, which I should mention. Shaun lives VERY well in PRC. I.e. my vantage point in China when I go into the country is one of a very ordinary person. Shaun does have a view point as to the movers and shakers of PRC, which I do not have.

Hence our respective biases. I.e. most of the people whom I know are scientists in PRC, and although they at times are well provided for, there is a major world of difference between their perspectives , i.e. of often grinding hard work of research with verification of results a top priority (as it is in ANY country) as balanced against the expectations of the exceedingly wealthy.

Shaun does touch upon another issue, that of the food quality issues in PRC. I for one have taken in medicine from America to PRC scientists in order to insure top grade medical treatment of members of their family. Shaun should in a future book explore the state of food and medical security, in PRC, and offer constructive suggestions as to its resolution.

Final comment. I have never met a Chinese man/ woman of the great wealth status Shaun has remarked upon, in his CEO introductions. Most people of that sort would ignore me completely as not worth their time in PRC, and Shaun should in a future book give an introduction as to their respective influence in PRC, and their relative impact upon the Chinese economy.

In writing all of this, I acknowledge the completely different spheres of life, Shaun and I have occupied in our stays in Chinese territory. Mine is of middle income scientists, and the universities, while Shaun is of the CEO elite. I suspect that the truth and the genesis of China's future prospects lies somewhere in between his views and mine, which although favorable, are not of the money making opportunities in PRC.

Helpful

Yitch

A modern approach to China

Reviewed in the United States on June 2, 2013

Verified Purchase

This book is a modern approach to China. Having stayed and worked in China for close to a decade, many of these observations are indeed very accurate and spot on. The US and international media tends to paint China in a bad light sometimes for political reasons, however, China has a lot of momentum moving forward. It would be better to understand and embrace versus blaming them for the quagmire that many American and European economies are in at the moment.

There are some instances of biasness in the book, however, overall, I would say it presents a very objective report worth reading and I would advise the reader to dive into the book with an open mind.

One person found this helpful

Helpful

Harsh Vaidya

A great book to understand China's transformation and its implications

Reviewed in the United States on January 12, 2014

Verified Purchase

While China is not a monolith, the popular narrative of international media on China has been simplistic and rather cynical. The book from the outset follows a very balanced approach on various important aspects of present day China. It is an important book capturing the transition of China from being world's factory to world's market and it's economic and cultural implications.

Shaun's perspective and analysis on various sensitive issues like : Chinese political system, corruption, environment pollution ,food safety scandal, meaningless investments with no growth (ghost towns), lack of innovation model, poor education system etc. have been really insightful. Each chapter of the book ends with a Case Study and Key action items , which as a consultant makes my day. The book offers many counter-intuitive insights on Chinese market derived from a thorough market research.

Shaun has bravely contradicted view-points on China of few celebrated commentators and forebode global executives on rise of Chinese brands in the global market. I fully subscribe to this oft scoffed stand and in my opinion, the emerging giants like Mindray, Goldwind etc. could very well bring in disruption in the global market.

I would recommend this book to anyone who is interested in China market and wants to understand the global implications of economic and cultural transformations in China.

3 people found this helpful

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Top reviews from other countries

Rob Julian

A Must Read For All Interested in China and World Economics

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 11, 2012

Verified Purchase

I really enjoyed reading this book. I am hungry to learn more about China and like everyone else trying to workout for myself where it's story is leading it and by implication the rest of the world economy. Reading this book has made me feel like I have substantially improved my understanding of this extraordinary country.

The author is an American of part Chinese heritage. Add to this his economics background and thriving Chinese business in market research and he is well qualified to be a type of ideal "our man in Beijing" correspondent. However he does provide a tangibly sympathetic and pro China (and it's leadership) feel to this book.

I found the "End of Cheap China" thesis suggested in the title to be both less central and not as completely convincing as one could have expected. The book is more like a very good synopsis of what is happening in China generally rather than a focused treatment of this specific economic question. In terms of casting doubt on the thesis of China becoming too expensive for cheap manufacturing, there was a section which detailed the high wages of seamstresses in a furniture factory on the one hand, but then an example of a couple whose husband returned to the countryside because he could not find high paying work in another section. For me a mixed picture emerges rather than a black and white case.

The labour markets in China are obviously tightening a bit, and many would think this is long overdue, but I did not read anything in this book which convinced me that China is likely to see bottom end wage rises like which has happened in South Korea any time soon. Part of the reason why China's rise has been so significant to economists and so invasive in foreign markets, has been the issue of stagnant labour costs alongside rocketing technology advancements. I am not sure whether this book is prescient in that it is highlighting that wage rises are about to surge, or premature, in that the author is over emphasising specific skilled labour markets which are tightening rather than wages across the board. Time will tell.

Interestingly he notes that even in the face of higher labour costs, although some businesses could be tempted to migrate to less developed countries, many enterprises still will find an incentive to remain in China due to positive externalities such as infrastructure. This reminds me of a section in Paul Collier's The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It in which he notes that: "In the 1960s and 1970s the rich world dominated global manufacturing despite having wages that were around forty times as high as those in the developing world. Why did this massive wage gap not make developing countries competitive?" p81-82.

The author is generally very positive about the central party leadership of China, and takes the believable line that many failures and protests are caused by corrupt officials or systems at local level. He tries to make us understand that few in China are unhappy with the central leadership, but it is local issues such as forced evictions by local officials and property developers which cause the visible dissent seen on TV by the West. This kind of sounds plausible, but, much like a large western company, it could be argued that if the central leadership is strong enough and motivated enough, it can usually enforce good practice on it's lower levels. Perhaps this weak ability of the central leadership to enforce good practise on local party officials is intrinsic in a political system where the centre derives no absolute moral authority from an electorate, and instead has to rely on the broader communist party membership for its support and legitimacy? The author seems to have faith that things are improving, so perhaps this enforcement will improve.

Other interesting subjects revealed are: the gradual move towards domestic consumption rather than exports, the worrying state of the food supply chain, the weak enforcement of fake brands (did anyone see the edition of Top Gear from China, the copy cars which the state refused to acknowledge were copies!). He also mentions the strongly growing construction sector and tries to answer fears that many see a bubble forming.

Throughout the book there are boxed snippets of business advice which although they feel out of place at times, seem very incisive and are interesting. For example I can perceive as accurate the observation that there is a distinct attitude of Chinese consumers who will buy extreme luxury designer goods such as Gucci handbags alongside very budget clothes and bypass the Marks and Spencer's middle ground which Western consumers go for. Will cultural proclivities such as these help the West to find export markets in China? Also interesting is the revelation that KFC is considered "healthful" in China because they trust the food supply chain it has more than the domestic brands. Is there a role here for Western companies?

He also acknowledges the fact that the perceived over valuation of China's currency is a divisive issue for many in other countries. He tries to defend the central leadership by presenting the difficult objectives they are pursuing and the perilous dangers they face if things go wrong in their crowded populous country. He notes that the currency stance of the leadership is a: "bottom-up generated policy" p115, but this is equivalent to saying that it is the right policy because it is favoured by Chinese people. This does not make it fair in terms of participating in the world economy. Perhaps the US and other Western governments should equally put tariffs on Chinese imports and equally observe that this is a bottom-up generated decision? (see my profile). He replies to these currency concerns by noting that China's currency has appreciated by 25%, but for me and probably for many other readers I think there is further to go along this route. The over valued currency issue taints his Darwinistic and : "it's [China's] greater adherence to free trade and capitalism than America's" p200, conclusions towards the end, but none the less he is right on the central issue: China is thriving in an arena where the West has previously been dominant, . . . and the West is feeling it!

All in all this book was a good read and I would strongly recommend it.

2 people found this helpful

Steve London

Insightful, sometimes touching, but....

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on June 6, 2012

Verified Purchase

Shaun Rein is undoubtedly a clever chap. Equally, his first hand experience over many years in China shows through in this book. Anecdotes are at times amusing, at times touching, and always add a human dimension to the story. Yet the book left me feeling something wasn't quite as it should be - a bit like a piece of the jigsaw was missing. Don't get me wrong, this is a good book, maybe even a great book, and I recommend you buy it. Nonetheless, I have two criticisms. The first is on a point of style which I happened to find somewhat irritating, namely the repetition of the book title within the text in such a way that I felt I was being engaged in some Pavlovian experiment. I'm over that now! My main criticism lies in that I couldn't help but feel the book was heavily self-censored, and that the author always had one eye on his business interests. Perhaps therein lies the paradox. Unless you have the experience and contacts that Shaun Reid has, writing such an informative book wouldn't be possible, yet if you want to maintain those relationships and contacts, you really can't afford to be too critical. If I was the author I'd no doubt be just as self-censoring, so it's not a criticism of the author. It is a criticism of the book, and I feel if the author wasn't so restrained at times (to balance his obvious enthusiasm for China) then the book would somehow feel more rounded.

Dipesh Jethwa

The End Of Cheap China

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on November 2, 2012

Verified Purchase

Dear All,

I am currently half way through reading this book and the first half has been very informative and in my humble opinion very well written. Shaun uses a good style of language for any reader to get a good understanding of China.

I am a banking professional with a specific focus on individuals that reside in the Asia Pacific and had bought this book in the hope to get a better understanding of my client base. This book has so far delivered me in depth knowledge - which has resulted in large success.

I would be happy to endorse this book for its layout, style, detail and relevance to a world in which the dominance of an East is quickly raising and where wealth is now raising from the 2nd generation.

A clear winner from similar books and I would definitely recommend you have a read if you have any interest in this part of the world or a fellow banking professional.

If any of you potential readers wants a further insight feel free to contact me directly.

One person found this helpful

Amazon Customer

Nice book

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on January 7, 2013

Verified Purchase

Provides you with a good perspective on the ground reality in China nowadays, with some very interesting facts and insights into the modern Chinese consumer. A very good read.

M & M Giacomini

Excellent insight on the changing Chinese market

Reviewed in Italy on August 5, 2013

Verified Purchase

China is not the cheap-quality sweat-shop of the world anymore.

It is fast becoming the first economic superpower and the main world-market for consumer goods.

Chinese people aspire to a Western-style of living and will direct and dictate the market trends for years to come.

The book provides tremendous insight for the Western businessman and entrepreneur.

See all reviews

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