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The End of Doom: Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-first Century Hardcover – July 21, 2015
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In the past five decades there have been many, many forecasts of impending environmental doom. They have universally been proven wrong. Meanwhile, those who have bet on human resourcefulness have almost always been correct.
In his widely praised book Ecoscam, Ronald Bailey strongly countered environmentalist alarmism, using facts to demonstrate just how wildly overstated many claims of impending ecological doom really were. Now, twenty years later, the Reason Magazine science correspondent is back to assess the future of humanity and the global biosphere. Bailey finds, contrary to popular belief, that many present ecological trends are quite positive. Including:
Falling cancer incidence rates in the United States.
The likelihood of a declining world population by mid-century.
The abundant return of agricultural land to nature as the world reaches peak farmland.
A proven link between increases in national wealth and reductions in air and water pollution
Global warming is a problem, but the cost of clean energy could soon fall below that of fossil fuels.
In The End of Doom, Bailey avoids polemics and offers a balanced, fact-based and ultimately hopeful perspective on our current environmental situation. Now isn't that a breath of fresh air?
- Print length368 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherThomas Dunne Books
- Publication dateJuly 21, 2015
- Dimensions6.33 x 1.17 x 9.48 inches
- ISBN-101250057671
- ISBN-13978-1250057679
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Editorial Reviews
Review
Praise for "Ecoscam "by Ronald Bailey:
Ronald Bailey sets out factually and simply the unassailable, if inconvenient, truth: that if you care for this planet, technological progress and economic enterprise are the best means of saving it.--Matt Ridley, bestselling author of The Rational Optimist
You know that flood of relief you feel when you wake up from a bad dream? This book gives you that feeling seven times, about matters far more serious than whether you're late to the airport. Bailey tracks down the evidence on heavily moralized topics to show that time after time, the prophets of doom play fast and loose with the facts, and play on people's psychological weaknesses. Those who bet against humanity's ability to innovate and improve almost always lose - and hurt others along the way. This book made the scales fall from my eyes, and even changed how I will invest my money.--Jonathan Haidt, New York Times bestselling author of The Righteous Mind
Over the last decade, Ron Bailey has become one of the most influential thinkers among a growing group of libertarians and conservatives who love nature and are concerned about the risks posed by climate change. As such, Bailey's thoughtful, evidence-based new book is about more than the end of environmental doom - it's also about the beginning of hope. While conservatives and liberals will never agree on everything when it comes to the environment, they might increasingly agree that the keys to saving more nature in the 21st Century are cities, agricultural intensification, and technological innovation.--Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger "coauthors of An Ecomodernist Manifesto and Break Through: From the Death of Environmentalism to the Politics of Possibility ""
Bold, opinionated, and unapologetic. The ship isn't sinking, Bailey says, and he has plenty of data to back him up. We can innovate our way to greater growth and environmental renewal. Everyone, right and left, should read this book. It doesn't blur partisan divides on the environment and growth - it obliterates them.--Ramez Naam, author of The Infinite Resource: The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet
[A] good book and deserves to be widely read--Lord Lawson "The Wall Street Journal "
An impressively researched, voluminously detailed book arguing that the world is in better shape than commonly assumed--Gregg Easterbrook, author of The Progress Paradox "Realclearbooks.com "
In an often high-decibel debate, Bailey's prose is soft-toned and reasonable. His is a voice that compels attention-and "The End of Doom" a book that provokes fresh thinking.--Rupert Darwall, author of The Age of Global Warming "Realclearbooks.com "
In "The End of Doom," Bailey takes on a series of issues that he believes have been vastly misunderstood by the neo-Malthusians and their fellow travelerspopulation, peak oil (and peak commodities more generally), the precautionary principle, worries about a cancer epidemic, genetic modification in agriculture, climate change, and species loss....History has proved these arguments ridiculous and even unethical. Yet, as Bailey shows, latter-day Malthusians are saying the same things.--Roger Pilke Jr., author of The Rightful Place of Science "Realclearbooks.com "
[A] good book and deserves to be widely read Lord Lawson, "The Wall Street Journal"
An impressively researched, voluminously detailed book arguing that the world is in better shape than commonly assumed Gregg Easterbrook, author of The Progress Paradox, "Realclearbooks.com"
In an often high-decibel debate, Bailey's prose is soft-toned and reasonable. His is a voice that compels attention-and "The End of Doom" a book that provokes fresh thinking. Rupert Darwall, author of The Age of Global Warming, "Realclearbooks.com"
In "The End of Doom," Bailey takes on a series of issues that he believes have been vastly misunderstood by the neo-Malthusians and their fellow travelerspopulation, peak oil (and peak commodities more generally), the precautionary principle, worries about a cancer epidemic, genetic modification in agriculture, climate change, and species loss....History has proved these arguments ridiculous and even unethical. Yet, as Bailey shows, latter-day Malthusians are saying the same things. Roger Pilke Jr., author of The Rightful Place of Science, "Realclearbooks.com"
Ronald Bailey sets out factually and simply the unassailable, if inconvenient, truth: that if you care for this planet, technological progress and economic enterprise are the best means of saving it. Matt Ridley, bestselling author of The Rational Optimist
You know that flood of relief you feel when you wake up from a bad dream? This book gives you that feeling seven times, about matters far more serious than whether you're late to the airport. Bailey tracks down the evidence on heavily moralized topics to show that time after time, the prophets of doom play fast and loose with the facts, and play on people's psychological weaknesses. Those who bet against humanity's ability to innovate and improve almost always lose - and hurt others along the way. This book made the scales fall from my eyes, and even changed how I will invest my money. Jonathan Haidt, New York Times bestselling author of The Righteous Mind
Bold, opinionated, and unapologetic. The ship isn't sinking, Bailey says, and he has plenty of data to back him up. We can innovate our way to greater growth and environmental renewal. Everyone, right and left, should read this book. It doesn't blur partisan divides on the environment and growth - it obliterates them. Ramez Naam, author of The Infinite Resource: The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet
Over the last decade, Ron Bailey has become one of the most influential thinkers among a growing group of libertarians and conservatives who love nature and are concerned about the risks posed by climate change. As such, Bailey's thoughtful, evidence-based new book is about more than the end of environmental doom - it's also about the beginning of hope. While conservatives and liberals will never agree on everything when it comes to the environment, they might increasingly agree that the keys to saving more nature in the 21st Century are cities, agricultural intensification, and technological innovation. Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger, "coauthors of An Ecomodernist Manifesto and Break Through: From the Death of Environmentalism to the Politics of Possibility""
About the Author
Product details
- Publisher : Thomas Dunne Books; 1st edition (July 21, 2015)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 368 pages
- ISBN-10 : 1250057671
- ISBN-13 : 978-1250057679
- Item Weight : 1.2 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.33 x 1.17 x 9.48 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #304,614 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #216 in Environmental Policy
- #359 in Climatology
- #536 in Ecology (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
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The bad news is is that even though Bailey provides a calm, even-handed, fact-based treatment of the topic, he would likely be as popular at a lefty cocktail party as Charles Darwin would be at a convention of creationists, or Christopher Hitchens at a Baptist revival. Large numbers of people want to believe that the world is coming to an end, that man's rapacious overconsumption has doomed the planet, that we are all being poisoned by the actions of evil corporations. This pathological need has existed since the beginning of time, and there have always been charlatans, well meaning and otherwise, willing to give the people what they want.
Unfortunately, Bailey is the type of guy who will spoil a good paranoia party by bringing facts as a housewarming gift - kind of the calm well spoken erudite commentator who is nonetheless the iconoclast in the punchbowl. If you have built your worldview around dogs and cats lying together, boiling seas, plagues of locusts and the world becoming a New Jersey toxic waste dump writ large, do you really want somebody to burst your bubble and tarnish your credibility by showing your fears are largely unfounded? I didn't think so!
In seriousness, the book is valuable on several levels. Bailey discusses confirmation bias at length. If you tend to be skeptical of the endless progression of environmental crises de jour, then Bailey provides page after well-written page of evidence that the emperor is indeed wearing no clothes. Each page is jammed with footnotes and numbers and statistics, yet written in a very readable style.
Even If your confirmation bias isn't getting stroked, Bailey is performing a service by highlighting shortcomings of thought patterns. Slavish adherence to the precautionary principle assumes that the status quo is not more risky than the range of plausible outcomes going forward. Mandates for extensive testing of new drugs may cost more lives than they save as people die during the testing phase. Organizations such as Greenpeace may have ulterior motives for scaremongering, i.e. soliciting donations etc. etc
It is important to note that Bailey is by no means an idealogue. He famously changed his mind on the impact of global warming in the late 1990s, going from skepticism to sipping the kool-aid. However, he anticipates the solutions will be less Naomi Klein post-capitalist redistributionist new world order and more traditional human ingenuity and markets. You can hear the 'never let a good crisis go to waste' crowd gnashing their teeth and rending their garments at the prospect that global warming will be resolved without forcing onerous changes on the developed world.
Yet i digress. This is a very very good book. Read it. Share it with your 'environmentalism as a religion' type friends. Even if it doesn't change your mind or theirs, it will give you all something to think about.
The discussion is divided as follows: (1) Peak population; (2) Is the world running on empty? (3) Never do anything for the first time; (4) What cancer epidemic? (5) The attack of the killer tomatoes? (6) Can we cope with the heat? (7) Is the arc sinking? (8) Conclusion: environmental renewal in the twenty-first century. At the end are extensive Notes and an Index.
Chapter (1) debunks the population doomsters and explains how the green revolution has increased agricultural productivity via biotechnology. And the invisible hand of population control results from the inverse relationshp between prosperity and fertility.
Chapter (2) addresses concerns that natural resources will be soon depleted. Especially interesting are observations about government oil companies which control 90% of the world's oil reserves. They tend to be corrupt and are not guided by good business practices and have low oil recovery rates. For water, it is shown how nature may make a drought, but man makes a shortage by underpricing water. For pollution, there is the positive message that richer means cleaner. Finally ther is a discussion of sustainable development with democratic free-market capitalism.
Chapter (3) addresses the misguided concern that anything new is dangerous, and therefore the development of new technology is dangerous. The author points out that progress and safety only happen through trial and error.
Chapter (4) points out there is no growing cancer epidemic. In 1962 Rachel Carson started the attack on synthetic chemicals such as DDT but did not fairly balance the cost and benefits. The cancer causing "natural" cehmicals such as coffee, alcohol, and nicotene were ignored .
Chapter (5) discusses and confirms the safety and benefits of biotech crops. Biotech crops have enabled less pesticide use and higher yields thus savings wild lands from being converted to farming.
Chapter (6) discusses "global warming". Surprisingly the author believes it poses a significant problem for humanity. His discussion is interesting but ignores the astronomical (changes in sun's output, cosmic rays, and orbital changes).
Chapter (7) discusses extinctions and biodiversity. Humanity is increasingly making itself autonomous from nature. Earth is an extensively modified used planet. Wherever human beings have gone in the past two centuries local and regional biodiversity has increased.
(8) Conclusion gives the author's optimistic views of the future. He does not fear for future generations.
Chapter by chapter, Bailey dispassionately takes down many of the environmental bugaboos of the last century: over population, fuel shortages, cancer epidemic, DDT, the threat of GMOs and so on. He is meticulous in citing studies to support his conclusions as well as pointing out the tricks of the trade used to fool the public into supporting their worldview. In spite of the denseness of his analysis (a policy wonk will have hours of fun here,) I found the book an enjoyable read thanks to Bailey’s wit and inclusion of personal anecdotes. Furthermore, rather than merely being another episode of “Myth Busters”, the final chapter offers his vision for environmental renewal: human ingenuity and technology.
My only quibble with the book is that while taking down various fraudsters (or well meaning activists depending on your POV) Bailey says little about the broader agenda of those who promote environmental doomsday scenarios. Sure he mentions that it is a common tactic of many environmental groups to incite public fear as a means to fill the coffers of their organizations. But really, isn’t there an easier way to make a living? I wish he had spent more time exploring their less obvious motivations and ultimate political goals. That could be even scarier than monster destroying robots.
Top reviews from other countries
The writing style is very pedestrian though and detracts from the arguments made in many places.





