End of an Era: How China's Authoritarian Revival is Undermining Its Rise 1st Edition

by Carl Minzner (Author)

21 ratings

ISBN-13: 978-0190672089

ISBN-10: 0190672080

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China's reform era is ending. Core factors that characterized it-political stability, ideological openness, and rapid economic growth-are unraveling. Since the 1990s, Beijing's leaders have firmly rejected any fundamental reform of their authoritarian one-party political system, and on the surface, their efforts have been a success. But as Carl Minzner shows, a closer look at China's reform era reveals a different truth. Over the past three decades, a frozen political system has fueled both the rise of entrenched interests within the Communist Party itself, and the systematic underdevelopment of institutions of governance among state and society at large. Economic cleavages have widened. Social unrest has worsened. Ideological polarization has deepened. Now, to address these looming problems, China's leaders are progressively cannibalizing institutional norms and practices that have formed the bedrock of the regime's stability in the reform era. End of an Era explains how China arrived at this dangerous turning point, and outlines the potential outcomes that could result.

Editorial Reviews

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"Mr. Minzner's arguments are lucid, readable and well-sourced, making this compact volume compulsory reading for those who continue to insist that China's authoritarian governance might be an improvement on democracy." -Wall Street Journal

"Captivating and essential reading for all China watchers." -Library Journal

"Carl Minzner takes the measure of 'China's rise' in a highly readable, yet penetrating, analysis that accurately gauges its weaknesses as well as strengths." -Jerome A. Cohen, Professor of Law and Faculty Director, U.S.-Asia Law Institute, New York University School of Law, and Adjunct Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

"A concise, authoritative, and impartial analysis of the challenges China faces as it tries to balance a vibrant, dynamic, ever evolving economy and society, with a static, centralised political system. This study asks fundamental, hard questions about whether this perpetual squaring of the circle can actually ever be achieved. Its conclusions are sobering and thought provoking." -Kerry Brown, Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of the Lau China Institute, King's College, London

"This book is a must-read, conversation changing book for anyone interested in China. Meticulously researched and written in a highly accessible style, End of an Era argues that China's reform era is ending. The book details how over the last decade changes in China's society, economy, politics and ideology have coalesced in a massive, yet unnoticed, transition, ending the reform era and endangering the country's further development. The book presents a shocking message that has repercussions for virtually anyone on the globe whose lives have become intertwined with the Chinese political economy." -Benjamin Van Rooij, John S. & Marilyn Long Chair Professor, University of California, Irvine

"In learned, provocative, yet engaging ways, Carl Minzner draws from his decades of China-watching expertise to explain the deeply unsettled and unsettling trajectory of contemporary China. Reflecting on the underlying social, economic, political and spiritual angst in China today, and the Party-state's tightening grip in response, the book not only convincingly explains the iEnd of an Erar, but foresees a darkening future with serious implications for China and the world." -Bates Gill, Professor of Asia-Pacific Security Studies, Macquarie University

"A valuable, clear-eyed tabulation of how, since Xi came to power in 2013, his grip has tightened." -Asia Sentinel

About the Author

Carl Minzner is Professor of Law at Fordham Law School. He is an expert in Chinese law and governance, and has written extensively on these topics in both academic journals and the popular press.

Hardcover: 296 pages
Publisher: Oxford University Press; 1 edition (March 1, 2018)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0190672080
ISBN-13: 978-0190672089
Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 1.1 x 6.4 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Customer Reviews: 20 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #827,258 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #700 in Non-US Legal Systems (Books)
- #927 in Political Ideologies
- #723 in Comparative Politics

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wsmrer

A tale well told

March 2, 2018

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

Carl Minzner finished his End of an Era in the spring of 2017 for publication in the spring of 2018. In those intervening months the rising strong authoritarian system he had seen developing under the presidency of Hu Jintao has further surged under Xi Jinping with the day of release coinciding with Xi’s party dropping the two-term limitation that had provided China with a legal and peaceful transformation of power unique in authoritarian ruled systems and decades after Deng Xiaoping warned against “the leadership of a single person,” opening the probability of prolonged one man rule in China; forecast by the author.

Professor Minzner is a China specialist at Fordham University Law school but this is not as he says a book about law, it is a study of the communist party’s long period of control, its attempts to move toward reforms that would create a government grounded in law and the failure of that process leaving glaring and growing gap between its perceived justification as China savior and international representative and the turmoil of intense internal social forces.
His treatment is intriguing, he unfolds the endless possibilities as domestic and/or international event unfold based on a rich understanding of China’s long history but also the forces developing in many lands including his own that foretell troubling times; and how Xi Jinping might respond. He matches concepts of the state and social integration, played out with comparisons of other nations’ developments, against the rule of a single unopposed party now more that ever missing the integration of competing factions.
He is sharing twenty years of observation and the rich interaction of other China specialists domestic and foreign and his title very well chosen; you will enjoy his history and his sometimes playful but also well grounded forecast.

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Reader

Already out of date... but still recommended

March 18, 2019

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

When I started reading Carl Minzner's book, The End of an Era, I expected much of what I found. It does take a lot of research and time to write a book of this type. As someone who has had over three decades of experience with the Chinese peoples, including becoming fluent in Mandarin and having lived in Chinese lands for well over a decade, I did find myself disappointed about a few aspects of the book...

1) President "Pa pa" Xi has now installed himself as the new "emperor" of China, through the complete removal of term limits
2) The newest app created by Alibaba, 学习, "Xue Xi Qiang Guo 学习强国", which can be interpreted in two ways "Study to strengthen the country", or "Study Xi 学习 (Xi Jinping 习近平) so as to have a strong country", has become the new "Red Book" of the Communist Party of China; the bedrock of an emerging cult mentality
3) The "Belt and Road Initiative" had not yet shown itself for the Chinese colonialism it actually has turned out to be
4) Xinjiang Province had not yet become, in the eyes of the West, the Chinese Gulag Archipelago for Muslims
5) Facial recognition systems, an ever-expanding bio-metric DNA database, and fingerprint systems make it nearly impossible to even go to a church without being noticed by the Party
6) An all-encompassing social credit system was still not really talked about, but now is a reality
7) The annual GDP numbers were not properly assessed nor questioned in the West, and China's economy is so opaque, that...:
a) it may be possible the GDP numbers are now in the red (as reported by a Chinese professor last December in Beijing, who has not been heard from since)
b) it is possible the overall size of the current Chinese economy may actually has been overestimated by as much as 16% (as of information recently released this last week by The National Interest)
c) all the moneys lent in the Belt and Road Initiative are imaginary numbers with no substance (hence the requirements that only Chinese goods and labor be used in most aspects of those various projects)
8) Computer motherboards made in China for a number of companies have been compromised with additional circuitry that is not manufacturer-specked out... making all those computer potential attack points by the Chinese military
9) Huawei, which in 2016 was responsible for the creation of 17% of the standard distribution of the Linux operating system kernel, has taken over much of the 5G wireless networking systems; Huawei, is well known by Chinese in China, to be a part of the Chinese military, no matter what the public image is to the outer world, non-中国 world. Given those facts, it is possible the Chinese military already has control over most of the computers and phones utilizing Linux and Android operating systems. (Perhaps that is why Google is working with the Chinese military? Most of Google's computers are based on Linux, as well as all Android phones)
10) The three man-made islands in the South China Sea that China claims are its own, have now become hard military bases, which China was earlier only claiming to be tourist spots. The only way to now take them out would be using nuclear weapons
11) Many major hacks of American corporations and government agencies have now been directly traced to the Chinese military; this includes potentially compromising identification information for a very large percentage (over 20%) of American citizens
12) Even the most liberal optimists, like George Soros, are now bothered by how China is behaving in the international arena; In the past three to four years, more and more scholars are openly questioning how China will get through its problems. In that sense, this book by Minzner is near the front of the line. Kudos!

In other words, Minzner's more optimistic hopes within this book about China have already been dashed.

A major problem: Minzner, 58% into the Kindle version of his book, also made it clear that he thought President Trump was going to make things worse. There was no reason for him to think that whoever was the President of the United States could change the overall trends within the behemoth of China, especially since every item I wrote about above was well in play during the Obama administration, if not earlier. I hope the second edition of the book helps him realize how immune China is to who is the president of the United States in the long run of things. President Hillary would not have been able to change what China had already started.

I also hope that Minzner will be realistic about how quickly China is now changing. His book is already out-of-date, as well as nearly every book published this year about China.

But I do admit, the potential ugly he mentions, while I believe it is inevitable at this point, is so horrendous to consider, I shudder to even contemplate it. But I must, even if Minzner will not.

I would recommend this book, as long as it was accompanied by the reality of some of the most recent events about China. Few books in print right now have many of the details Minzner wrote about.

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Vergil

For people who want to get a realistic view of how China is changing

May 5, 2018

Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase

It is currently my favorite book on the recent political and social developments in China. The author carefully delineates how in the past few years China has been rolling back the institutional reforms it carried out during its reform era and tightening its control of the society with ample evidence and specific examples. The book also includes interesting discussions on some underlying issues that the Chinese government (both present and past) faces, such as the principal-agent problem between the central government and local bureaucrats and the mechanisms to address people's grievances. The chapter that compares and contrasts China with other societies are also enlightening in making sense of how Chinese society is (and will be) evolving. Definitely recommend this book to people who want to get a realistic view of how China is changing both in the short- and the long-term. With this book's insights in mind, people can better read news about China in perspective.

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quis sum

Well worth reading.

April 20, 2018

Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase

This is a wonderful book. Not only is it engaging, well written and clear, it also presents a thougthful and balanced perspective on the current changes in China. Professor Minzner describes both the strengths and the weaknesses of the Chinese system, highlighting parallels to the current U.S. situation. He does so from the perspective of someone who clearly cares about both countries, and is concerned about where both are headed. The book covers a wide range of topics, from the rule of law to religion to the economy, and offers deep insights into the forces that are driving the centralization of power in China as well as the under appreciated level of public dissatisfaction and protest that is often hidden from Western view.

Perhaps the most impressive thing, though, is that the book was written before many of the recent changes in communist party structure, and yet manages to predict them with a remarkable degree of accuracy. My suggestion: read this book if you are interested in the future of the world and of the most populous contry in it: China.

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End of an Era: How China's Authoritarian Revival is Undermining Its Rise 1st Edition