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Many financial analysts and financial journalists have pointed to quantitative trading and the subprime mortgage markets as being the major cause behind the extreme volatility in the financial markets in the summer of 2007. This book therefore seems fitting for this particular time in financial history, if only at a bare minimum to educate the reader about the use of mathematical modeling in financial analysis and financial engineering. As the subtitle of the book indicates, the author's main thesis is that the use of mathematical models can actually change the dynamics of the markets themselves, moving them possibly to territories even more uncertain that they were invented to describe. Quantitative trading, now done by most of the major players in the financial markets, is dependent of course on mathematical modeling, some of which uses highly sophisticated reasoning patterns and artificial intelligence. Most of these models are proprietary, and therefore one cannot ascertain their efficacy in the acquisition of wealth for the organizations that deploy them. However, with a little pertinacity one can acquire a good understanding of their workings by studying the academic literature.
Some of the predominant models in the public domain are discussed in this book, mostly from an historical perspective but the author inserts some of the relevant mathematics in its appendices for the more mathematically sophisticated reader. In general the author makes a plausible case for his main thesis, but at times his conclusions are based on mere anecdotes, and he makes the typical mistake of imputing power and influence to individuals that is unsubstantiated. It is very tempting, especially among those individuals or institutions that are involved in trading, or even responsible for innovations in the same, to believe that they are the cause for some of volatility in the financial markets. But such claims, even if they seem reasonable or intuitively clear, must be substantiated with careful statistical analysis, which can be time-consuming and difficult, and few individuals it seems are willing to devote themselves to such a project. The author though is aware of this, for he states very early on in the book that historical sources may not be sufficient to allow one to decide if the influences are real. In addition, he cautions the reader to "look not just at what participants say and write but also at whether the processes in question involve procedures and material devices that incorporate economics."
The author labels the idea that economics as an academic project is actually part of economic processes the `performativity of economics', which he further breaks down into subclasses that serve to clarify the distinctions he wishes to make. One of these is more of a passive notion, called "generic" performativity, which is used to describe the participant's use of economic theories or data without emphasizing their effects on economic processes. If such effects take place, this is called "effective" performativity, which is then specialized to "Barnesian" performativity. The latter is used to describe the situations where the practical use of economic theory makes economic processes resemble what they are described to be by economic theory. Barnesian performativity is to be contrasted with `counterperformativity' where the actual use of economic models makes economic processes not resemble their description by these models. The author discusses how to detect Barnesian performativity, but warns of the difficulty in proving that movements in prices are following certain model predictions.
But aside from the qualitative/historical emphasis that the author makes in this book and the small number of unsubstantiated claims of model-market influence, the reader will take away a better understanding of such topics as the capital asset pricing model, the Black-Scholes-Merton model of option pricing, the Modigliani-Miller theory of capital structure, a description of Levy processes and their role in econometrics, and most interestingly, a different explanation for the demise of Long Term Capital Management. All of these topics, coupled with the intellectual honesty and literary skill of the author, make this book a highly interesting contribution to the financial literature.
- Series: Inside Technology
- Paperback: 392 pages
- Publisher: The MIT Press; 1st edition (August 29, 2008)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 0819456608
- ISBN-13: 978-0262633673
- ASIN: 0262633671
- Product Dimensions: 6 x 0.8 x 9 inches
- Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
- Customer Reviews: 17 customer ratings
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#1,073,114 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #1202 in Social Aspects of Technology
- #3649 in Industrial Manufacturing Systems
- #6441 in Finance (Books)
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