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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Paperback – August 20, 2006

by Philip E. Tetlock (Author)
4.4 out of 5 stars 37 customer reviews
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Product Details

  • Paperback: 352 pages
  • Publisher: Princeton University Press; New Ed edition (August 20, 2006)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0691128715
  • ISBN-13: 978-0691128719
  • Product Dimensions: 6.1 x 0.9 x 9.2 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 13.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (37 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #134,255 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5 starsA classic of Political Science & Cognitive Psychology
By Dr. Frank Stech on January 5, 2007
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
Tetlock shows conclusively two key points: First, the best experts in making political estimates and forecasts are no more accurate than fairly simple mathematical models of their estimative processes. This is yet another confirmation of what Robyn Dawes termed "the robust beauty of simple linear models." The inability of human experts to out-perform models based on their expertise has been demonstrated in over one hundred fields of expertise over fifty years of research; one of the most robust findings in social science. Political experts are no exception.

Secondly, Tetlock demonstrates that experts who know something about a number of related topics (foxes) predict better than experts who know a great deal about one thing (hedgehogs). Generalist knowledge adds to accuracy.

Tetlock's survey of this research is clear, crisp, and compelling. His work has direct application to world affairs. For example he is presenting his findings to a conference of Intelligence Community leaders next week (Jan 2007) at the invitation of the Director of National Intelligence.

"Expert Political Judgment" is recommended to anyone who depends on political experts, which is pretty much all of us. Tetlock helps the non-experts to know more about what the experts know, how they know it, and how much good it does them in making predictions.
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5.0 out of 5 starsCareful, Plodding, Objective
By Peter McCluskey on September 22, 2006
Format: Paperback
This book is a rather dry description of good research into the forecasting abilities of people who are regarded as political experts. It is unusually fair and unbiased.

His most important finding about what distinguishes the worst from the not-so-bad is that those on the hedgehog end of Isaiah Berlin's spectrum (who derive predictions from a single grand vision) are wrong more often than those near the fox end (who use many different ideas). He convinced me that that finding is approximately right, but leaves me with questions.

Does the correlation persist at the fox end of the spectrum, or do the most fox-like subjects show some diminished accuracy?

How do we reconcile his evidence that humans with more complex thinking do better than simplistic humans, but simple autoregressive models beat all humans? That seems to suggest there's something imperfect in using the hedgehog-fox spectrum. Maybe a better spectrum would use evidence on how much data influences their worldviews?

Another interesting finding is that optimists tend to be more accurate than pessimists. I'd like to know how broad a set of domains this applies to. It certainly doesn't apply to predicting software shipment dates. Does it apply mainly to domains where experts depend on media attention?

To what extent can different ways of selecting experts change the results? Tetlock probably chose subjects that resemble those who most people regard as experts, but there must be ways of selecting experts which produce better forecasts. It seems unlikely they can match <a href="[...]">prediction markets</a>, but there are situations where we probably can't avoid relying on experts.Read more ›
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5.0 out of 5 starsGreat Decision Making Evidence
By T. Coyne on March 10, 2006
Format: Hardcover
As both a consultant and an investment manager I have spent a lot of years studying decision theory. One limitation in a lot of the work I encountered was its heavy reliance on lab studies using students. You were never quite sure if the conclusions applied in the "real world." This outstanding book puts that concern to rest. It is by far the richest body of evidence I have encountered on decision making in real world situations. Anybody interested in decision making and decision theory will profit from reading it.
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5.0 out of 5 starsReview by J. Colannino
By Joseph Colannino on December 2, 2012
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
"Expert political judgment" -- it sounds like an oxymoron, but only because it is. Philip E. Tetlock's groundbreaking research shows that experts are no better than the rest of us when it comes to political prognostication. But then again, you probably had a sneaking hunch that that was so. You need rely on hunches no more. Tetlock is Professor of Leadership at the Haas Management of Organizations Group, U.C. Berkeley. A Yale graduate with his Ph.D. in Psychology, Expert Political Judgment is the result of his 20 year statistical study of nearly 300 impeccably credentialed political pundits responding to more than 80,000 questions in total. The results are sobering. In most cases political pundits did no better than dart throwing chimps in prediciting political futures. Of course, Tetlock did not actually hire dart throwing chimps -- he simulated their responses with the statistical average. If the computer was programmed to use more sophisticated statistical forecasting techniques (e.g., autoregressive distributed lag models), it beat the experts even more resoundingly.

Were the experts better at anything? Well, they were pretty good at making excuses. Here are a few: 1. I made the right mistake. 2. I'm not right yet, but you'll see. 3. I was almost right. 4. Your scoring system is flawed. 5. Your questions aren't real world. 6. I never said that. 7. Things happen. Of course, experts applied their excuses only when they got it wrong... er... I mean almost right... that is, about to be right, or right if you looked at it in the right way, or what would have been right if the question were asked properly, or right if you applied the right scoring system, or... well... that was a dumb question anyway, or....Read more ›
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Most Recent Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5 starsExcellent Book

Thank you Philip for writing such a powerful book. Thank you for showing that what so called experts are generally no better than ordinary citizens at predicting political events. Read more

Published 3 months ago by Ninos Youkhana
5.0 out of 5 starsA social sciences masterpiece

I have read Tetlock’s works in reverse chronological order. I first read Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, and read this book afterwards. Read more

Published 5 months ago by Abacus
1.0 out of 5 starsHilariously dated

The book opens with a full throated defense of the American invasion of Iraq and how doves who pine for a counterfactual reality where Saddam is still in power discount the... Read more

Published 8 months ago by d
4.0 out of 5 starsFour Stars

good

Published 8 months ago by Maribeth Madonna
5.0 out of 5 starsFive Stars

This books information is fascinating and challenging to read and absorb.

Published 12 months ago by nick s
5.0 out of 5 starsGreat book.

Great book.

Published 15 months ago by FlowerGirl
4.0 out of 5 starsFour Stars

Hard to handle the statistical sections but the basic message is fascinating. Go Foxes.

Published 21 months ago by harrison young
5.0 out of 5 starsBrilliant

Brilliant research written up in a clear fashion. Important work that is quoted widely. Important implications for society and our politics

Published on March 2, 2014 by David McKay
4.0 out of 5 starsAwesome

We all think about the world and everything else in terms of our mental models. This has its own limitations, but used properly we will still be able to understand and predict the... Read more

Published on February 24, 2014 by Vinayagamoorthy
5.0 out of 5 starsThe education establishment promotes teaching "critical thinking", but...

This book is excellent at demonstrating that *expertise* should be the goal of education, and not "critical thinking". Read more

Published on October 8, 2013 by W Stephens

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