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Expert Failure (Cambridge Studies in Economics, Choice, and Society)
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- ISBN-101316503046
- ISBN-13978-1316503041
- PublisherCambridge University Press
- Publication dateFebruary 8, 2018
- LanguageEnglish
- Dimensions6 x 0.66 x 9 inches
- Print length290 pages
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Editorial Reviews
Review
‘The burgeoning literature on expertise, which crosses several disciplines, has needed an accessible, sophisticated, critical, synthetic overview that explains the importance of the issues. Roger Koppl has supplied one at last, and much can be learned from it.' Stephen Turner, Distinguished University Professor, University of South Florida
‘In this lucid and wide-ranging examination, Roger Koppl sets forth several lines of thought that speak to this servant-master dichotomy. The book does not provide a recipe for creating servants and avoiding masters, but it provides a cogent framework for exploring this problem of human governance, closing with the wisdom: value expertise but fear expert power.' Richard Wagner, Harris Professor of Economics, George Mason University, Washington, DC
'The growth of the administrative state, more intricate financial regulation, and the spread of behavioral economics as a basis for policy means that we are increasingly living under the rule of experts. Roger Koppl's book is an in-depth look at the epistemic and incentive problems created by what may appear to some as simply evidence-based policy. But much more is at stake here as Koppl revealingly demonstrates.' Mario J. Rizzo, Associate Professor of Economics, New York University
'In Expert Failure, Roger Koppl has written a commanding synoptic and authoritative book on the fundamental problem of 'experts', when knowledge is not uniformly distributed. Koppl argues for polyarchy over hierarchy, covering an enormous range from Socrates, to the administrative state, to the tacit knowledge in the economy and the dangers of the 'entangled deep state'. Read this book.' Stuart Kauffman, FRSC, Emeritus Professor, University of Pennsylvania
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- Publisher : Cambridge University Press (February 8, 2018)
- Language : English
- Paperback : 290 pages
- ISBN-10 : 1316503046
- ISBN-13 : 978-1316503041
- Item Weight : 15.5 ounces
- Dimensions : 6 x 0.66 x 9 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #1,993,134 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #330 in Epistemology (Books)
- #1,498 in Reference (Books)
- #1,555 in Public Policy (Books)
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Koppl does not reject the usefulness or necessity of expertise. Indeed, he acknowledges that the division of labor inevitably gives rise to a division of knowledge, and that this can allow us to do amazing things. But he also recognizes that experts are fallible, learn within an institutional context, and have interests of their own. This means that they can cause harm under some conditions, particularly those where they have monopolies, are heavily siloed within a narrow discipline, or have the power to impose their advice on others.
While Koppl makes some abstract arguments, he applies them to a range of concrete cases. These cases are immensely important. Koppl explains some of the problems that gave rise to great horrors of the past and present, including eugenics, abusive use of forensic science to convict innocent people, and America's violent and illiberal national security state.
The resultant book is a fun and intelligent read, a bit more challenging than your typical layperson book, but then again, Koppl is more about leading you through the history, theory and research than telling you what you should believe. This book has already shaped policy debates, and it will certainly continue to do so.
Koppl also has written a book that takes a complicated subject and makes it easy to approach and understand. This book will be enjoyed both by the academic and the non-academic.
Wha . . . wha . . . what?
“These two judges were experts. They were experts in the law giving their opinions of the guilt or innocence of children coming before them and deciding what punishments were just. They took $2.6 million in “kickbacks” from two private detention centers to which they sent convicted juveniles. To get their kickbacks, they sent children to jail.’’
This report opens the book. Sets the tone. Experts are deceitful, fallible, corrupt - sincere, insightful, wise. Just like everyone else!
Why experts given so much status?
“I review two important episodes in the history of the problem. The first is the emergence of Socratic philosophy and its development with Plato, Aristotle, and the Academy. In this tradition, philosophers are experts. The second episode is a mostly nineteenth-century Anglo-American literature on expert witnesses in the law. I will argue that in both literatures the expert is often viewed as both epistemically [intellectually] and morally superior to non-experts. They should be obeyed. Such lionization of experts and expertise is common today as well and is, in my view, inappropriate and unfortunate.’’
Oddly, the claim of ‘moral superiority’ is the significant step. Experts not just smarter, but, better. A distinction with a huge difference!
Another key theme . . .
“Consider serious examples of spontaneous order, including the division of labor. We should not think of the division of labor as driven, somehow, by a grand purpose. It embodies no unitary hierarchy of values. The division of labor has no purpose and serves no particular hierarchy of ends. It is, rather, the emergent and unplanned result of a variety of persons pursuing a variety of potentially inconsistent goals. We can get along, so many of us so well, precisely because we do not have to agree on values. Believers buy Bibles from atheists and the system bumps along tolerably well, all things considered.’’
Misunderstanding of markets, the demand for clear unity of thought, rejection of division of labor, produces misery. Like Marx (others) explain, markets work — it just doesn’t feel right! We want something better!
Another keen insight . . .
“Poverty is about rights, not fertilizer. “The technocratic illusion is that poverty results from a shortage of expertise, whereas poverty is really about a shortage of rights”
Wow!
The ‘rule of law’ receives attention . . . What is this?
““It means, in the first place, the absolute supremacy or predominance of regular law as opposed to the influence of arbitrary power, and excludes the existence of arbitrariness, of prerogative, or even of wide discretionary authority on the part of the government”. Mises invoked the rule of law when contrasting hegemonic and contractual bonds in society. “In the hegemonic state there is neither right nor law; there are only directives and regulations which the director may change daily and apply with what discrimination he pleases and which the wards must obey”.
Koppl writing in 2018. ‘Arbitrary use of authority’ by experts. This explanation needed now more than ever!
Epistemology (study of knowledge) plays significant role in this drama . . .
“Mises would say, “In the course of social events there prevails a regularity of phenomena to which man must adjust his actions if he wishes to succeed.” The sovereign (whether literal monarch or a democratic electorate) knows that it cannot suspend the law of gravity by fiat. But the sovereign rarely understands that the laws of economics are just as binding and just as independent of human will. “One must study the laws of human action and social cooperation,” Mises averred, “as the physicist studies the laws of nature”.
‘Laws of nature’ cannot be repealed by human legislators!
Part 1 - Nature and History of the Problem
2 - Is There a Literature on Experts?
Defining “Expert”
3 - Historical Episodes in the Problem of Experts
The Socratic Tradition
Expert Witnesses in Law
4 - Recurrent Themes in the Theory of Experts
Power Ethics Reflexivity
The Well-Informed Citizen
Democratic Control of Experts
Information Choice
Part II - Foundation of the Theory of Experts
5 - Spontaneous Order
6 - The Division of Knowledge through Mandeville
7 - Division of Knowledge after Mandeville
Vico to Marx
Menger to Hayek
After Hayek
Part III- Information Choice Theory
8 - Supply and Demand for Expert Opinion
Honest Error and Willful Fraud
The Economics of Experts Fills a Niche
9 - Experts and Their Ecology
Motivational Assumptions of Information Choice Theory
Part IV - Expert Failure
10 - Two Dimensions of Expert Failure
Identity, Sympathy, Approbation, and Praiseworthiness
Observer Effects, Bias, and Blinding
11 - Further Sources of Expert Failure
Normal Accidents of Expertise
Complexity and Feedback
Incentive Alignment
Monopsony and Big Players
Epistemic Systems Design
12 - Expert Failure in the Entangled Deep State
How important are ‘experts’ in current society, culture?
“A body of experts may defend its monopoly with “intimidation, rational and irrational propaganda … mystification,” and “manipulation of prestige symbols”.
Who can deny this now?
“Physicians, manipulate prestige symbols, mystify, and propagandize on the power and mystery of modern medicine. The “general population is intimidated by images of the physical doom that follows” from rejecting a doctor’s advice. “To underline its authority the medical profession shrouds itself in … symbols of power and mystery, from outlandish costume to incomprehensible language.” Medical insiders are kept in – that is, kept from “quackery” – “not only by the powerful external controls available to the profession, but by a whole body of professional knowledge that offers them ‘scientific proof’ of the folly and even wickedness of deviance”.
Not just ‘wrong’ to reject doctor, but, ‘wicked’! This is religious language — not scientific words!
Where, when did this begin?
“Plato famously calls for a philosopher-king. “Until philosophers are kings, or the kings and princes of this world have the spirit and power of philosophy … cities will never have rest from their evils.” And, he authorizes the few to tell a noble lie to the many. He proposes “just one royal lie which may deceive the rulers, if that be possible, and at any rate the rest of the city.” He thus places all epistemic authority in philosophy.’’
‘One royal lie’! Well . . . why stop with one? Notice, Plato advises experts to lie to politicians. Who thinks intellectual history useless?
Another fascinating insight . . .
“Here again we find the aversion to competing experts and the corresponding desire to somehow prevent diversity of opinion from being expressed. And here again we see the role of the profession in attempts to prevent disagreements among experts. In one jurisdiction in England – Leeds – the professional aversion to disagreement seems to have influenced court procedure.’’
Group think more important than truth.
“In Leeds,” we are told, “the custom has, we believe, long obtained among the leaders of the profession to refuse to give expert evidence on any case until after a meeting of the experts on both sides; and this practice has worked so well that the Leeds Assizes are notable for the absence of these conflicts of scientific testimony which elsewhere has done so much to discredit such testimony in courts of law” If this report is accurate, it would seem that physicians and, perhaps, other experts succeeded in transforming the adversarial procedure in a manner that likely did less to promote truth and justice than testimonial unity.’’
Experts want to produce status and admiration - not justice.
Final chapter . . .
“If my epistemics are about right, then the problem of experts mostly boils down to the question of knowledge imposition. Shall we impose a uniform body of knowledge on society? Imposing knowledge from above ensures expert failure, as illustrated by the failure of Soviet planning.’’
History is real. Failure is always near.
“The knowledge sustaining the division of labor in society is inherently synecological [progressive]. It is therefore not a matter of free choice whether social relations shall be governed by one unitary system of knowledge or by the undirected efforts of diverse persons, each guided by their own knowledge. Any attempt to impose a systematized body of knowledge on the system will fail, and social cooperation will be correspondingly thwarted. If we are to have sustainable social cooperation among vast numbers of strangers, social intercourse cannot be directed by an imposed system of knowledge, however “scientific” we may imagine such knowledge to be.’’
Now this is profound. Ideas, control, direction imposed, given from ‘above’ is not, and can never be, ‘scientific’!
Man-o-man! Recalls the Biblical proverb on Maxwell’s wall . . .
“We know we all have knowledge. Knowledge puffs up, but love builds up.
If anyone thinks he knows something, he does not yet know it as he should know it.’’
Maxwell overturned Newton!
What conclusion offered?
“Pure theory might seem to be “a priori” if we were perfect logicians, with only the application being “empirical.” But we are not perfect logicians. We do not know all of the implicit assumptions we make, and we are not always clear about the steps in our reasoning. Because human reason is fallible we need to test theory with history.’’
Test ideas with facts. All set? No. Why?
“But observation is fallible too. Because observation is fallible we need to test history with theory. In this disappointing situation, we cannot hope for falsifications or definitive tests beyond, perhaps, a few relatively rare instances. We have, instead, a dialogue between theory and history with no guarantee that we will always move closer to the truth.’’
And this is where I’ve arrived. Neither theory alone or data alone is sufficient. The constant interaction between both is the only way to travel down the road to the land of ‘truth’. We’ll never arrive. We can move farther away from the field of ‘error’ and approach the garden of ‘truth’. But, we’ll never stop traveling. Is this good? Yes, this goal, this hope, this vision can inspire human life forever! What could be better?
Koppl writing for serious reader. Probably fellow academics, policy wonks, intellectual leaders, etc., etc.. In fact, so many references, so much analysis of various scholars, profound thinkers and historical knowledge, it distracts from his explanations.
Nevertheless, such comprehensive detail obviously included due to his counter-cultural rejection of the current technocracy, the administrative state, the scientific socialism of modernity.
I skipped some of the more repetitive, detailed, academic argument. However, I learned a lot, was impressed with the research and deepened my understanding of current trends.
Reveals the philosophical, intellectual, psychological ideas that are overwhelming modern thought.
Recommended!
Hundreds and hundreds of notes (linked)
Many notes have links to the reference.
Tremendous scholarship!
Detailed index (linked)
Great!
No photographs

