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False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet Kindle Edition
| Bjorn Lomborg (Author) Find all the books, read about the author, and more. See search results for this author |
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Hurricanes batter our coasts. Wildfires rage across the American West. Glaciers collapse in the Artic. Politicians, activists, and the media espouse a common message: climate change is destroying the planet, and we must take drastic action immediately to stop it. Children panic about their future, and adults wonder if it is even ethical to bring new life into the world.
Enough, argues bestselling author Bjorn Lomborg. Climate change is real, but it's not the apocalyptic threat that we've been told it is. Projections of Earth's imminent demise are based on bad science and even worse economics. In panic, world leaders have committed to wildly expensive but largely ineffective policies that hamper growth and crowd out more pressing investments in human capital, from immunization to education.
False Alarm will convince you that everything you think about climate change is wrong -- and points the way toward making the world a vastly better, if slightly warmer, place for us all.
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherBasic Books
- Publication dateJuly 14, 2020
- File size13825 KB
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Editorial Reviews
Review
“It’s precisely because the problem is so serious that [Lomborg] argues it is necessary to approach it cool-headedly….The alternative? In Lomborg’s view it is letting ourselves be panicked into the most expensive course—trying to fix the climate without having the necessary technology on hand. Lomborg argues powerfully that this is a fool’s errand….A corrective to many of the green assumptions that dominate the media.”
―Financial Times
"Meticulously researched, and well worth a read."―Forbes
“An excellent summary of the madness, hypocrisy, and cynicism of the climate-alarm establishment.... Lomborg has done an excellent job pointing out that climate fears are indeed a ‘false alarm,’ misdirecting time and resources away from real, and soluble, problems.”―New Criterion
"An important book. Mr. Lomborg is a long-standing environmentalist regarded as a heretic by hardliners in the movement because he is an optimist who says that humanity is not doomed."―Iain Martin, The Times (UK)
“Lomborg is persuasive on the vulnerability of Africa and need for greater emphasis on building climate resilience.”―The Irish Times
"The best way to deal with global warming is to increase global prosperity.... The choice we face, Lomborg writes, is between a human future driven by fear and one driven by ingenuity. On that, he is exactly right."―The Bulwark
“False Alarm is a comprehensive analysis of the issues in climate change that represents a reasoned balance between the shrill voices demanding immediate change (without being aware of the practical issues involved) and those who see no problems at all with our current environmental situation.”―New York Journal of Books
"Lomborg's most basic premise remains that there are better ways to alleviate human misery than spending taxpayer subsidies than on panic-driven, political non-solutions to a changing climate. Few would argue with that goal."―American Thinker
“A detailed...human-centric, optimistic tome from an honest environmentalist.”―Capitalism Magazine
“Lomborg’s work is impossible for alarmists to ignore.”―Heartland Institute
“In between the cries of imminent apocalypse and outright denial that seems to be the daily fare of the mainstream and alternative news outlets on the issue of global warming, Bjorn Lomborg sounds a rare note of sanity and moderation in his new book, False Alarm. Lomborg’s achievement is in providing a much-needed broader context to the climate debate, based on years of researching and writing on the topic....One hopes that this book will bring to the attention of the general public, specialists and policy-makers, not just the scale of the problem of climate change, but the most positive steps that can be taken by governments to address it.”
―International Journal of World Peace
"Lomborg brands climate change warnings as alarmist, and argues that a massive reduction in fossil fuels would exacerbate global poverty, in this detailed account.... Lomborg is careful to back his cost-benefit analyses of climate policies with surveys and statistics."―Publishers Weekly
"[Lomborg] follows his previous critiques of climate change policy...with a hard-hitting analysis of failing strategies for addressing what he acknowledges is 'a real problem.'...A serious, debatable assessment of a controversial global issue."―Kirkus
"Bjorn Lomborg's new book offers a data-driven, human-centered antidote to the oft-apocalyptic discussion characterizing the effect of human activity on the global climate. Careful, compelling, and above all sensible and pragmatic."―Jordan Peterson, author of 12 Rules for Life
"This is a very important and superbly argued book. Those who have been persuaded that climate change is not happening, and those who think catastrophe is imminent should both read it and know they can rely on Lomborg's meticulous analysis to put them right. The rest of us can be alarmed by his relentless revelation that the world is spending a fortune on making the plight of the poor and the state of the environment worse with foolish and expensive policies."―Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works
"False Alarm is a timely and important book. Based on the latest scientific evidence and rigorous economic analysis, it provides a welcome antidote to widespread, irrational panic about a coming climate apocalypse. Instead, it provides a set of smart, rational policies for addressing global warming -- while not losing sight of the myriad other problems that beset our planet, including poverty and inequality. This book is essential reading for anyone who cares about our shared human future."―Justin Yifu Lin, former chief economist, the World Bank
"This is a fantastic book. In it, Bjorn Lomborg examines through the lens of statistics the apocalyptic projections of the future of climate change. He points out, rightly, that the doomsday scenarios are misguided and that policy decisions driven by panic have real costs, particularly for the poor. False Alarm is a must-read."―Bibek Debroy, Chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India
"Bjorn Lomborg is that rare thing: a clear-sighted realist about climate change. In False Alarm, he argues that it would be foolish to do nothing to prepare for a warmer planet, but it would be more foolish to pretend that we are doing things that will significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions when we are not. At the same time, getting serious about cutting CO2 emissions will have a cost. As Lomborg says, vastly more people die as a consequence of poverty and disease each year than die as a consequence of global warming. As in the past, we humans are capable of adapting to climate change in ways that can significantly mitigate its adverse effects, without choking off economic growth. To learn how, you must read False Alarm."―Niall Ferguson, the Hoover Institution, Stanford University --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
About the Author
Product details
- ASIN : B0827TL851
- Publisher : Basic Books; Illustrated edition (July 14, 2020)
- Publication date : July 14, 2020
- Language : English
- File size : 13825 KB
- Text-to-Speech : Enabled
- Screen Reader : Supported
- Enhanced typesetting : Enabled
- X-Ray : Enabled
- Word Wise : Enabled
- Print length : 422 pages
- Lending : Not Enabled
- Best Sellers Rank: #34,282 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- #4 in Environmental Economics (Kindle Store)
- #10 in Environmental Science (Kindle Store)
- #13 in Libertarianism
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Top reviews from the United States
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This personal anecdote is far from being the worst example of the harm that climate alarmism will cause us all. All over the western world, green "protestors" are blocking traffic, disrupting the daily lives of innocent civilians; in extreme cases even preventing ambulances and first responders from doing their jobs. Again, having sufficient faith in the axiom of the climate apocalypse, none of this behavior is irrational. Nothing can possibly trump saving the planet and all life on Earth.
Next time you come across, say, an Extinction Rebel in England, try to tell them that not only the world is not going to end but also that by the end of the century it is likely that we will have eradicated abject poverty from the face of the Earth. Show them that the polar bear population has in fact increased and that the Northern Hemisphere now has more trees than it did 100 years ago. Ask them to join you in rejoicing over the bright future of mankind. What do you think would be their reaction? Shouts, screeches, and possibly violence would be their response, as a few Youtubers have demonstrated. Strange, is it not? For a group of people beating the drum of planetary salvation to be so hostile to the possibly bright outcome of our world.
Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel prize laureate, described Bjorn's book as "pollution of the mind" in what he calls a review on Lomborg's work but to me seems a lot like a miserably failed hit piece. Notice the deeply orthodox religious language. Did it become normal now for Nobel prize holders to argue in such irrelevant terms as opposed to providing actual facts and data? By the way, if you are interested, Lomborg himself has posted a response to the criticism.
Having watched many of Bjorn Lomborg's lectures and presentations, I understand that he is very hesitant to attribute malice instead of ignorance to people. But we see climate alarmists all over the world propping up children to follow the lead of Greta Thunberg, pumping them full of rage and hatred, cheering them on as they stop their education to scream at adults on the streets. We see the extremists openly calling for policies that would coerce the developing world into curbing their development, which would undoubtedly lead to lives lost. We see news anchors shaming women who decide to become mothers, accusing them of doing net harm to future humanity. This will lead to a culture of madness.
How would you prove that the top proponents of this movement actually have good intentions? How to reconcile words and actions that are so far apart? The answer is that the green movement has now become a religious death cult that has all of the negative aspects of traditional religions but possesses none of their moral wisdom. It has whipped its followers into a death craze, replacing the concept of original sin with carbon dioxide, and offering a twisted sense of salvation through the deprecation of humanity. If it did not start out this way, it surely has been hijacked. Now we have to put a stop to the extremism and bring environmentalism back on a much more moderate track.
While it is useful to have a book that attempts to place climate change in a reasonable context relative to other opportunities for human improvement, this book just has too much cognitive dissonance to be a great book.
First off, Lomborg gives away the store by claiming a scientific consensus. Page 6 states : "Scientists agree that global warming is mostly caused by humans, and there has been little change in the impacts they project for temperature and sea level rise." This is false. There are many projections as the common spaghetti graph chart of models demonstrates. Second, Lomborg refers to "pre-industrial revolution temperatures" as some sort of baseline for the planetary average global temperature he would posit as some sort of ideal even though the industrial revolution began in the middle of the Little Ice Age. And what pre-industrial revolution temperature was the norm? That of the Medieval Warm Period? And what exactly would the ideal temperature for a geo-engineered climate be? Because these are tough questions, natural climate variability denialism has become popular among hysterics but Lomborg pays no attention. Worst, Lomborg claims that there is some kind of consensus that by 2100 the average global temperature will be 7.2 degrees F warmer than ?? but that is the RCP 8.5 projection and if there is any consensus at all it may be that the RCP 8.5 projection is highly unlikely and useless to policy makers.
But other than those minor quibbles, the book is a useful refutation of a lot of the drivel the public is so regularly subjected to.
Top reviews from other countries
The result is a book that is more propaganda than a factual examination of the issue. It is at odds with researchers and scientific organisations around the world, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United States National Academy of Sciences, who have concluded that climate change poses an extremely serious threat to people around the world, which will continue to grow unless there is much stronger action to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The arguments presented by Lomborg are often confused and contradictory. He claims that adapting to the impacts of climate change is easier and more cost-effective than cutting emissions, but admits that the economic damage from weather events around the world is increasing rapidly. He advocates more research on finding a magical new source of energy that does not emit greenhouse gases and is cheaper than fossil fuels, but dismisses wind and solar energy which is already producing power more cheaply than coal in many parts of the world, including the United States.
Are the heart of the book is a reliance on an out-of-date model of the economic impacts of climate change which does not reflect the latest scientific research. Lomborg also exaggerates the costs of renewables and other ways of reducing emissions, bizarrely doubling all the estimates he finds in the literature. The end result is that Lomborg suggests that there is an "optimal" level of global warming that is 3.75 Celsius degrees above pre-industrial temperature. This is a laughable conclusion. The last time global temperature was more than 2 Celsius degrees above pre-industrial temperature was about 3 million years ago during the Pliocene Epoch, when the polar ice caps were much smaller than today and global sea levels were 10-20 metres higher. Modern humans first appeared on earth less than 250,000 years ago so have no evolutionary experience of the climate that Lomborg suggests is optimal!
The book may seem superficially plausible because of the citation of academic references. But when you check the papers to which Lomborg refers, you often find that they do not state what he claims. When I contacted some of the researchers about Lomborg's characterisation of their work, they said that their findings had been misrepresented.
Overall, this book will appeal to those who, like Lomborg, arrogantly believe that they know better than the experts and think that the risks of climate change have been exaggerated. But the informed reader will be able to spot that this book is an exercise in motivated reasoning and is not a serious or credible examination of the issue.
The basic premises of False Alarm, therefore, did not come as a surprise to me. He advocates a four-pronged strategy to deal with climate change: a small but steadily increasing carbon tax, ideally one that is coordinated internationally, research into new carbon-free technologies (but little spending on deploying today’s immature ones), adaptation and, finally, research into geoengineering as an insurance policy (but not for deployment other than in extremis). Lastly, he reminds us that climate change is not the only challenge, and, indeed, for most people around the world even in the West, but especially in the developing world, it is far down their list of priorities. Prosperity, he says, is the overlooked climate policy – more prosperous people and peoples are better placed to deal with the effects of climate change as they are to overcome other problems.
Lomborg starts by asking why we get our reaction to climate change so wrong, and specifically how we became fixated on becoming “carbon neutral” by 2030 so as to limit global average temperature rise to 2.7F at the end of the century. (Minor gripe: he uses Fahrenheit in deference to the US market, only occasionally giving the Celsius equivalent; I would have preferred it the other way around, and giving both measures each time would surely have caused little additional work or disruption to the reading flow.) The answer: ask scientists a silly question - Lomborg says an impossible one - and you get a silly/impossible answer. He implicates mainstream media in particular – good news sells no stories, and headlines like “Climate Change Could End Human Civilization by 2050” as published in the New York Times sells more newspapers than “Life in the future will be very recognizable but could be somewhat more challenging in certain respects.”
Second only to the MSM Lomborg implicates university researchers and politicians as contributing to the hype for their own benefits – he does not suggest a conspiracy, rather a self-reinforcing group-think. He points out that environmental catastrophism goes back to the 1960s, and has already had a long history of promoting expensive, unnecessary and in some cases downright barbaric solutions to avert perceived Armageddons. Paul Erlich – in response to whom Lomborg supposedly wrote Skeptical Environmentalist – comes in for particular stick.
In the second section Lomborg concentrates on debunking suggestions that hurricanes, droughts or forest fires are actually worse natural phenomena than before (or linked to climate change), it’s just that we humans have placed more of our assets into harm’s way without taking appropriate precautions. He uses the reports of the International Panel on Climate Change and other government-funded reports to demonstrate just how relatively mild their predictions are compared to the hysterical reaction they are engineered to produce, and refers to the work of Nobel-Laureate economist William D. Nordhaus who has worked out the economic effect of the predicted temperature rises in terms of GDP – and concludes that the effects are all entirely manageable.
Lomborg details why almost nothing we have done so far has been effective In the third section and demonstrates the shocking expense of the subsidies that the EU, and Germany in particular, has paid (from taxpayers’ money!) to deploy renewable technologies (while attempting to phase out the one non-carbon technology that does work at scale, nuclear fission). But, he says, it’s the very attempt to work to arbitrary targets to reduce CO2 that is at fault – even if the Paris Agreement delivered as planned (and he explains why it won’t) the rise in temperature by 2100 would be reduced by an imperceptible amount. In the hard-hitting tenth chapter “How climate policy hurts the poor” he focuses on one of the key arguments of the book – which dovetails with his work in the Copenhagen Consensus – that inept climate policies actually cause deaths amongst the world’s poorest. The fashion for biofuels in the early 2000’s, for example, pushed food prices up by 75%, with predictable effects of poverty – and starvation – levels. He decries climate-based aid programmes which offer renewable (e.g. solar-based) off-grid electrification that entirely fail to meet the expectations of local people. Although written before the current campaign, it is interesting to view the intended effect of western climate campaigners on ordinary people in the rest of the world through the prism of “Black Lives Matter”; which Lomborg does not refer to that movement, he does suggest that the climate campaigners are “enacting a kind of imperialism”.
This is an excellent book. Apart from my minor quibble about F rather than C, my only concern is that he doesn’t take the time to explain why a temperature rise of 5C or 8.7F or whatever is only going to cause a small reduction on GDP and is entirely manageable. Our own dear George Monbiot and The Guardian (both quoted, not necessarily positively) are convinced and have played their part in convincing so many that this does in fact mean the end of the world, and Lomborg might usefully have spent more time providing evidence that such a rise in temperature would indeed something that we could, if necessary, adapt to. Highly recommended.
I read this in the Kindle edition, which is/was published before the hardback. The illustrations, always a weakness of ebooks and kindles in particular, aren’t bad, although it was good to be able to look at them on my PC (via the PC Kindle app) to see the detail. I also downloaded the synced audible audiobook - Jim Seybert does a credible job or narrating.








