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False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet Hardcover – July 14, 2020
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An “essential” (Times UK) and “meticulously researched” (Forbes) book by “the skeptical environmentalist” argues that panic over climate change is causing more harm than good
Hurricanes batter our coasts. Wildfires rage across the American West. Glaciers collapse in the Artic. Politicians, activists, and the media espouse a common message: climate change is destroying the planet, and we must take drastic action immediately to stop it. Children panic about their future, and adults wonder if it is even ethical to bring new life into the world.
Enough, argues bestselling author Bjorn Lomborg. Climate change is real, but it's not the apocalyptic threat that we've been told it is. Projections of Earth's imminent demise are based on bad science and even worse economics. In panic, world leaders have committed to wildly expensive but largely ineffective policies that hamper growth and crowd out more pressing investments in human capital, from immunization to education.
False Alarm will convince you that everything you think about climate change is wrong -- and points the way toward making the world a vastly better, if slightly warmer, place for us all.
- Print length320 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherBasic Books
- Publication dateJuly 14, 2020
- Dimensions6.25 x 1 x 9.5 inches
- ISBN-101541647467
- ISBN-13978-1541647466
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Editorial Reviews
Review
“It’s precisely because the problem is so serious that [Lomborg] argues it is necessary to approach it cool-headedly….The alternative? In Lomborg’s view it is letting ourselves be panicked into the most expensive course—trying to fix the climate without having the necessary technology on hand. Lomborg argues powerfully that this is a fool’s errand….A corrective to many of the green assumptions that dominate the media.”―Financial Times
"Meticulously researched, and well worth a read."―Forbes
“An excellent summary of the madness, hypocrisy, and cynicism of the climate-alarm establishment.... Lomborg has done an excellent job pointing out that climate fears are indeed a ‘false alarm,’ misdirecting time and resources away from real, and soluble, problems.”―New Criterion
"An important book. Mr. Lomborg is a long-standing environmentalist regarded as a heretic by hardliners in the movement because he is an optimist who says that humanity is not doomed."―Iain Martin, The Times (UK)
“Lomborg is persuasive on the vulnerability of Africa and need for greater emphasis on building climate resilience.”―The Irish Times
"The best way to deal with global warming is to increase global prosperity.... The choice we face, Lomborg writes, is between a human future driven by fear and one driven by ingenuity. On that, he is exactly right."―The Bulwark
“False Alarm is a comprehensive analysis of the issues in climate change that represents a reasoned balance between the shrill voices demanding immediate change (without being aware of the practical issues involved) and those who see no problems at all with our current environmental situation.”―New York Journal of Books
"Lomborg's most basic premise remains that there are better ways to alleviate human misery than spending taxpayer subsidies than on panic-driven, political non-solutions to a changing climate. Few would argue with that goal."―American Thinker
“A detailed...human-centric, optimistic tome from an honest environmentalist.”―Capitalism Magazine
“Lomborg’s work is impossible for alarmists to ignore.”―Heartland Institute
“In between the cries of imminent apocalypse and outright denial that seems to be the daily fare of the mainstream and alternative news outlets on the issue of global warming, Bjorn Lomborg sounds a rare note of sanity and moderation in his new book, False Alarm. Lomborg’s achievement is in providing a much-needed broader context to the climate debate, based on years of researching and writing on the topic....One hopes that this book will bring to the attention of the general public, specialists and policy-makers, not just the scale of the problem of climate change, but the most positive steps that can be taken by governments to address it.”
―International Journal of World Peace
"Lomborg brands climate change warnings as alarmist, and argues that a massive reduction in fossil fuels would exacerbate global poverty, in this detailed account.... Lomborg is careful to back his cost-benefit analyses of climate policies with surveys and statistics."―Publishers Weekly
"[Lomborg] follows his previous critiques of climate change policy...with a hard-hitting analysis of failing strategies for addressing what he acknowledges is 'a real problem.'...A serious, debatable assessment of a controversial global issue."―Kirkus
"Bjorn Lomborg's new book offers a data-driven, human-centered antidote to the oft-apocalyptic discussion characterizing the effect of human activity on the global climate. Careful, compelling, and above all sensible and pragmatic."―Jordan Peterson, author of 12 Rules for Life
"This is a very important and superbly argued book. Those who have been persuaded that climate change is not happening, and those who think catastrophe is imminent should both read it and know they can rely on Lomborg's meticulous analysis to put them right. The rest of us can be alarmed by his relentless revelation that the world is spending a fortune on making the plight of the poor and the state of the environment worse with foolish and expensive policies."―Matt Ridley, author of How Innovation Works
"False Alarm is a timely and important book. Based on the latest scientific evidence and rigorous economic analysis, it provides a welcome antidote to widespread, irrational panic about a coming climate apocalypse. Instead, it provides a set of smart, rational policies for addressing global warming -- while not losing sight of the myriad other problems that beset our planet, including poverty and inequality. This book is essential reading for anyone who cares about our shared human future."―Justin Yifu Lin, former chief economist, the World Bank
"This is a fantastic book. In it, Bjorn Lomborg examines through the lens of statistics the apocalyptic projections of the future of climate change. He points out, rightly, that the doomsday scenarios are misguided and that policy decisions driven by panic have real costs, particularly for the poor. False Alarm is a must-read."―Bibek Debroy, Chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India
"Bjorn Lomborg is that rare thing: a clear-sighted realist about climate change. In False Alarm, he argues that it would be foolish to do nothing to prepare for a warmer planet, but it would be more foolish to pretend that we are doing things that will significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions when we are not. At the same time, getting serious about cutting CO2 emissions will have a cost. As Lomborg says, vastly more people die as a consequence of poverty and disease each year than die as a consequence of global warming. As in the past, we humans are capable of adapting to climate change in ways that can significantly mitigate its adverse effects, without choking off economic growth. To learn how, you must read False Alarm."―Niall Ferguson, the Hoover Institution, Stanford University
About the Author
Product details
- Publisher : Basic Books (July 14, 2020)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 320 pages
- ISBN-10 : 1541647467
- ISBN-13 : 978-1541647466
- Item Weight : 1.16 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.25 x 1 x 9.5 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #465,572 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #421 in Climatology
- #570 in Environmental Economics (Books)
- #939 in Environmental Science (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
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Dr. Bjorn Lomborg is an academic and the author of the best-selling "The Skeptical Environmentalist" and "Cool It". He challenges mainstream concerns about development and the environment and points out that we need to focus our limited resources and attention on the smartest solutions first. He is a visiting professor at Copenhagen Business School, and president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center which brings together top economists, including seven Nobel Laureates, to set data-driven priorities for the world.
Follow him on twitter: bjornlomborg
Lomborg is a frequent commentator in print and broadcast media, for outlets including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, CNN, FOX, and the BBC. His monthly column is published in 19 languages, in 30+ newspapers with more than 30 million readers globally.
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Learn more how customers reviews work on AmazonCustomers say
Customers find the book well-researched, objective, and backed up by appropriate research. They say it provides detailed insight on how best to deal with climate change. Readers also describe the writing as clear, easy to read, and convincing.
AI-generated from the text of customer reviews
Customers find the book well-researched and referenced. They say it provides detailed insights on how best to deal with climate change. Readers also mention the author is logical, has facts behind everything he puts forward, and his arguments are convincing. They appreciate the wealth of reliable data written without an ax to grind.
"Finally, a well researched, well written book that clearly states that sanity, not fear-mongering, should be applied to anthropogenic climate change..." Read more
"...The list of ideas here are endlessly fascinating: emitting sulfur dioxide, storing energy in molten salt, creating new types of nuclear reactors,..." Read more
"Extremelly well written, it brings facts to light which are overlooked or overstated by the current narrative...." Read more
"A refreshing, logical take on climate change that needs to be addressed more. Definitely recommend!" Read more
Customers find the book well-written, knowledgeable, and easy to read. They say it provides a comprehensive review and evidence-based discussion of our world. Readers also mention the author is logical, has facts behind everything he puts forward, and is thorough.
"Finally, a well researched, well written book that clearly states that sanity, not fear-mongering, should be applied to anthropogenic climate change..." Read more
"Extremelly well written, it brings facts to light which are overlooked or overstated by the current narrative...." Read more
"...This book is well written with facts supported by empirical evidence documented by qualified professionals who disregard the political and media..." Read more
"...An extensive bibliography is included and a well written index. The ease with which one can read the book made me want to read it cover to cover...." Read more
Customers find the perspective of the book balanced, interesting, and intelligent. They say it brings realism and sanity to a controversial topic.
"This book brings realism and sanity to a controversial topic. Every policy has a cost for an expected outcome...." Read more
"Very balanced analysis!!" Read more
"...about the climate, but instead got a well balanced and realistic perspective about the challenges of battling GHG emissions and the sobering reality..." Read more
"This is a great look at the climate stats and it puts them in perspective. More importantly, it shows what we can really do to improve things...." Read more
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In reviewing literature that ran counter to this book's claims, I could only find criticism by a Jeremy Grantham-backed think tank. Grantham himself seems to be a neo-Malthusian so I am skeptical of his views as well as the terseness of the ripostes so far written. However, of course, we should not be dogmatic if better work does come out.
My Summary of This Important Work:
The public's current perception of climate change is based on ill-informed fear. The media prints the scariest sounding narratives, scientists get funding for apocalyptic sounding research needs, and politicians push budget busting subsidies doled out to favored constituents. As a result, four in ten in the US believe global warming will lead to mankind's extinction and persistent peddlers of pessimism such as Prince Charles and Al Gore ignore their own previously wrong prognostications to issue new, phony predictions.
These predictions never seem to come to fruition. Oil prices are very low as well as a slate of other finite commodities. Heating of the planet has extended longevity (heat causes .5% of deaths vs the 7% of cold), has led to a greening of the planet and has seen some islands actually gain land area through coral erosion. The severity and number of hurricanes, flooding, droughts ("globally, the number of consecutive dry days has been declining for the last ninety years") are flat or declining. Even if there is now more developed areas to be destroyed during natural events, the fact that people are richer and have better housing means the costs keep decreasing. Polar bears, nature's symbol of the toll of global warming, are seeing a population increase after hunting regulations were implemented and they seem well placed to survive an era of warmer weather like they have in previous periods. The UN Climate Panel itself stated, "for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change will be small relative to the impacts of other drivers." Even agriculture is estimated by the UN's FAO to see grain production increase but just by a little less than it would have with no temperature rise (44% vs 41%).
Politicians excel at making bold commitments not whetted in reality. New Zealand proclaimed a zero emission country by 2020 but failed to even reduce emissions. Not deterred, a predecessor has made similar commitments by 2050, promises that would cost 16% of GDP to just reach half of these ambitions. This is not unique to the Kiwis as Japan, Mexico and South Korea are all vastly missing their targets. The US was no where near meeting its obligations under the Paris Agreement even before the current administration's roll backs. China has tripled emissions since 2000. Even a complete rich world ban on emissions would not effect temperatures in the near term. Overall, the Paris Agreement would cost more $1 trillion / year to implement by 2030 and have a very muted impact on overall temperatures. And the one country who has reduced carbon emission the most, the US, did it with no adherence to the agreement as fracking natural gas has taken off.
Its important to remember the effect of policies on the poor. The poorer classes in rich countries tend to live in more remote areas and must spend more of their income on fuel costs. Germany's energy costs have doubled over the past two decades as they have shifted to renewables. Insisting that developing countries do not develop seems cruel and unethical. This leads to the Schelling Conjecture: getting richer is probably better for the world's poor than focusing on emissions. Lomborg notes:
Expanding immunization and curbing tuberculosis, improving access to modern contraception, ensuring better
nutrition and more education, reducing energy poverty—all of these are well within our power and, if we
focused on them, could alleviate suffering for huge swaths of the world’s population right now.
What should be done?
We should tax emissions in line with Nordhaus' DICE model that balances economic growth and development with a muting of the worst case climate scenarios. That means a seven degree rise by 2100 at a cost of global GDP of 2.9% (noting GDP will be much larger at that point).
We should avoid favoring certain renewables: the IEA estimates that by 2040 after $4 trillion has been spent, solar and wind will only account for 5% of global energy. We subsidize electric cars for about $10k per car yet get only $48 in carbon reduction (as measured by RGGI prices). Its also important to note that renewables could also mean wood which may be worse of the environment.
We should understand the rebound effect: that certain efforts to save carbon by reducing consumption may mean we consume in other more carbon-intensive ways.
We should adjust: both Bangladesh and Holland are vulnerable to flooding but the Dutch have mastered mitigation. Sea levels have already risen about a foot over the past 150 years. Coastal defenses such dikes, increasing sand on beaches, and things like NYC's sea walls and storm barriers protect coastline. Use of reservoirs and curtailing irrigation during droughts, air conditioning purchases in warming areas, removing wood near homes, and painting rooftops that significantly cool cities should all be done.
We should invest in green technologies and geoengineering. This is where this book is at its most interesting and most speculative. Each dollar invested in green technology could avoid $11 of climate change. Each dollar invested in geoengineering could see $2,000 worth of gains. The list of ideas here are endlessly fascinating: emitting sulfur dioxide, storing energy in molten salt, creating new types of nuclear reactors, air capture, making clouds whiter and seawater spraying boats are all mentioned.
Bjorn firsts defines what climate change is, explains how the current approach and misinformation efforts are not accurate or effective and then proceeds to present a clear and effective way to address the issue.
This book is well written with facts supported by empirical evidence documented by qualified professionals who disregard the political and media hype now being used to scare people and secure questionable funding.
I urge anyone who is truly interested in understanding what climate change is, how it will affect our world and how we can address it in an effective and rational manner to read this book. How successful we are in addressing the climate change concern will depend greatly on our true and accurate understanding of the problem.
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Het verduidelijkt op wetenschappelijke wijze hoe onze samenleving eraan toe is, niet alleen de cijfers m.b.t. vervuiling, global warming en andere, maar ook en evenzeer hoe gevevens gemanipuleerd worden om één bepaalde visie op te dringen tegen het belang van de bevolking in.







