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The Fifth Risk Hardcover – October 2, 2018
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New York Times Bestseller
What are the consequences if the people given control over our government have no idea how it works?
"The election happened," remembers Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, then deputy secretary of the Department of Energy. "And then there was radio silence." Across all departments, similar stories were playing out: Trump appointees were few and far between; those that did show up were shockingly uninformed about the functions of their new workplace. Some even threw away the briefing books that had been prepared for them.
Michael Lewis’s brilliant narrative takes us into the engine rooms of a government under attack by its own leaders. In Agriculture the funding of vital programs like food stamps and school lunches is being slashed. The Commerce Department may not have enough staff to conduct the 2020 Census properly. Over at Energy, where international nuclear risk is managed, it’s not clear there will be enough inspectors to track and locate black market uranium before terrorists do.
Willful ignorance plays a role in these looming disasters. If your ambition is to maximize short-term gains without regard to the long-term cost, you are better off not knowing those costs. If you want to preserve your personal immunity to the hard problems, it’s better never to really understand those problems. There is upside to ignorance, and downside to knowledge. Knowledge makes life messier. It makes it a bit more difficult for a person who wishes to shrink the world to a worldview.
If there are dangerous fools in this book, there are also heroes, unsung, of course. They are the linchpins of the system―those public servants whose knowledge, dedication, and proactivity keep the machinery running. Michael Lewis finds them, and he asks them what keeps them up at night.
- Print length256 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherW. W. Norton & Company
- Publication dateOctober 2, 2018
- Dimensions6.5 x 0.9 x 9.6 inches
- ISBN-109781324002642
- ISBN-13978-1324002642
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There is another way to think of John MacWilliams’s fifth risk: the risk a society runs when it falls into the habit of responding to long-term risks with short-term solutions.Highlighted by 4,754 Kindle readers
There was a rift in American life that was now coursing through American government. It wasn’t between Democrats and Republicans. It was between the people who were in it for the mission, and the people who were in it for the money.Highlighted by 4,538 Kindle readers
The only thing any of us can do completely on our own is to have the start of a good idea.Highlighted by 3,791 Kindle readers
The fifth risk did not put him at risk of revealing classified information. “Project management,” was all he said.Highlighted by 3,649 Kindle readers
From the Publisher
Praise for The Fifth Risk
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Editorial Reviews
Review
― New York Times Book Review
"Fascinating―and at times harrowing…. Lewis tells an important and timely story, one that all of us who pay for, care about, and want government to work should hear."
― NPR
"A hymn to the 'deep state,' which is revealed as nothing more than people who know what they're talking about."
― Cory Doctorow, Boing Boing
"[A] spellbinding, alarming analysis of the most serious threats to Americans’ safety happening now from inside the U.S. government."
― Quartz
"Displaying his usual meticulous research and fluid prose, [Lewis] makes the federal bureaucracy come alive by focusing on a few individuals within each agency with fascinating―and sometimes heartwarming―backstories.…[A] well-written primer on how the government serves citizens in underappreciated ways."
― Kirkus (starred review)
"Illuminating.… It's relevance to readers won't end with the Trump era."
― Publishers Weekly
From the Back Cover
Praise for Michael Lewis
"Saturation reporting, conceptual thinking of a high order, a rich sense of humor, and talent to burn."
―Tom Wolfe
"Michael Lewis has a spellbinding talent for finding emotional dramas in complex, highly technical subjects."
―John Gapper, Financial Times
"[Lewis] has a genius for unearthing tales of the counterintuitive."
―Pamela Paul, New York Times Book Review
"The leading journalist of his generation."
―Kyle Smith, Forbes
"Lewis is the kind of writer who creates his own weather system."
―John Lanchester, London Review of Books
"I would read an 800-page history of the stapler if he wrote it."
―John Williams, New York Times Book Review
"[A] master of the character-driven narrative."
―Charlie Gofen, National Book Review
About the Author
Product details
- ASIN : 1324002646
- Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company; First Edition (October 2, 2018)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 256 pages
- ISBN-10 : 9781324002642
- ISBN-13 : 978-1324002642
- Item Weight : 1.04 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.5 x 0.9 x 9.6 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #54,754 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- Customer Reviews:
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The Fifth Risk: Undoing Democracy
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About the author

Michael Lewis, the best-selling author of The Undoing Project, Liar's Poker, Flash Boys, Moneyball, The Blind Side, Home Game and The Big Short, among other works, lives in Berkeley, California, with his wife, Tabitha Soren, and their three children.
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Lewis is a story-teller who takes on interesting topics, spinning stories around them as his highly readable, informative narrative style draws the reader in, eventually capturing completely. He begins by showing us how unprepared and incurious the Trump minions were before introducing us to John MacWilliams, the first risk assessment officer of the Department of Energy. MacWilliams had prepared notebooks full of explanatory data and information about the job of DOE and the risks it oversaw, only to spend a few minutes with, of all people, the clueless Rick Perry, the former governor of Texas, who inhabits the position.
Throughout the vast and dedicated bureaucracy, government civil service employees, upon learning that Donald J. Trump had somehow been elected President, swung into action. They prepared voluminous briefing books to prepare members of the new administration to understand and continue doing the jobs that provided crucial information and services to the American people. They expected to be swarmed with these appointees the day after the election….And no one came! When a few new agency heads showed up, they demonstrated a remarkable lack of curiosity about what their jobs entailed. Eighty-nine year old Wilbur Ross thought the Department of Commerce was devoted to business and could never grasp the breadth of services and information it provided. Curiosity and skill were absent. And so information essential to meeting the needs of every day Americans, particulalarly in the rural areas that won the election for Mr. Trump, were hollowed out...neutered and made totally ineffective by a President not interested in governing.
The advantage of Lewis’ style of story-telling lies in his ability to take a general principle of which we’re all aware, in this case the two facts that Trump is sending unqualified hacks to lead the major divisions of the government and that the agencies are being hollowed out, denied money and qualified staff becomes real in his hand. We see directly through the eyes of dedicated employees the importance of many functions we’re not aware exist protect and inform, as well as how cutting off the top and denying funding hollow out the agencies, denying the recipients of their services essential protections and advice that agencies provide. By focusing on the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Energy, Lewis shows the breadth of their portfolio and the importance of the high quality people working for them. Replacing what Trump has so successfully destroyed, with the canny help of one of America’s most underrated disablers, Mick Mulvaney, will take a generation or more to rebuild once we rid ourselves of their depredations.
The replacement of food scientist Dr. Cathie Wotecki with right wing political hack and talk show host Sam Clovis represents another example of removing expertise from important, but often quietly effective low-profile specialists with political people seeking to achieve political goals. The achievements of Wotecki during her time with FDA at the Department of Agriculture were monumental, and life
saving. Clovis job was to shut down programs and eliminate the words “climate change” from government lexicon.
The role of government in rural America hidden, by being administered through small banks, brings expertise and money into places where neither exists, while being hidden by local interests and their antipathy to what they see as “the government.” Lillian Salerno eventually ran for Congress as a Democrat as she became increasingly aware of the Trump strategy of replacing professionals with political appointees who had no expertise or interest in the areas where her specialization had helped strengthen rural areas. Simply a small example of the larger problem. She lost!
Instead of re-visiting the depredations committed daily on the American people, the Tweeting, whining, self-promoting course of the Trump train wreck, Lewis takes the time to burrow into the inner workings of the crucial agencies and programs operated by the lower level political appointees and civil servants who make the wheels turn. Often, the recipients of government services don’t even know these services are sponsored and paid for by the government. Lewis shows how commitment, expertise, hard work, and dedication have built a system that actually delivers necessary services, improves the national health, protects the environment, and places needed checks on the damage often perpetrated by big money and large corporate interests. The results are a hollowing out of the inner workings of the government, hidden by bluster and mis-direction from the top. There’s no little irony in Lewis’s ending the book with the story of a tornado chaser, who has learned to follow behind storms to avoid being killed by the object of his studies.
Michael Lewis is the author of a series of best-selling books mostly having, at least superficially, to do with sports and/or business (Liar’s Poker, Moneyball, Blindside, The Big Short) which have all been best sellers as illuminating changing aspects of our culture through his wonderful storytelling. Originally from New Orleans, and educated at Princeton and The London School of Economics, Lewis’ is 58 years old, and with Fifth Risk at the top of his game.
In the beginning of Fith Risk by Michael Lewis (W.W. Norton, October 2018, 221 pg., $26.95, $10.58), Lewis chats at length with John Macwilliams, who has identified the five risks facing the government as the Trump administration sets and achieves its chaotic agenda. MacWilliams has identified four risks for Lewis, who finally asks him what the fifth risk is, to which MacWilliams responds, perhaps in a toneless, hopeless voice, “Project management.” This book is highly entertaining as well as “Must Reading!”
The story on the transition makes Trump seem somewhat crazy. Trump doesn’t want to prepare for the transition, he doesn’t want to spend money on it, and then he fires Christie, who was leading the transition, right after he wins the election. The result is that the people who should be taking over departments don’t show up when they should.
I don’t know what to conclude from the transition stories. Lewis says in several places that the people in the agencies always see newcomers as uniformed about government. It seems natural that there will be added hostility to Trump’s appointees, And given that Trump didn’t prepare well for the transition, it’s not surprising that the transition is slow, but Lewis doesn’t provide many examples of problems resulting from the slow transition.
Lewis also doesn’t provide many examples on the fifth risk--bad management. Lewis only spends about 20% of the book on this topic and this part of the book seems the weakest. He does a good job explaining how badly polluted the Hanford nuclear site is. He quotes a century and 100 billion dollars as the likely clean up requirements. Lewis says Trump is not thinking long term about the dangers Hanford, which is probably correct, but given the scope of the problem it’s hard to see many politicians coming to grips with it.
The last part of the book is on government data. It focuses on NOAA weather data. The story describes the huge amounts of data gathered by NOAA and the great progress being made in using it to predict the weather. This is a good example, but it’s also a special one. "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver has a chapter on weather prediction that helps put it in perspective. E.g., we can now use weather data to predict the weather in 5 or 10 days, but we can’t use geological data to predict earthquakes or data on NFL games to predict with much certainty which team will win the SuperBowl. Lewis tells an important story about NOAA, but I’m not sure that it applies to many other parts of the government.
Lewis does a good job of making the point that many people in government are not properly appreciated. He describes many good people who care about their jobs and know much more than short-term political appointees will ever know. At times the people Lewis quotes are dismissive of people outside of government, which undermines Lewis’ argument by making government workers look out-of-touch. He quotes one person saying, “I can tell you that the market does not go into a lab and work on something that might or might not work.” Does this guy not realize that companies are always investing in new ideas that may or may not pay off? Lewis quotes someone else saying, “Without USDA money, it’s possible we’d look like sub-Saharan Africa, or rural China.” I trust that this guy was dedicated to his job, but he seems to have lost some perspective on the people he is trying to help.
I recommend it to anyone interested in government—whether as a student of political science, or going into government office.
Top reviews from other countries
The issue Lewis explores is not an ideological one. It is not one of right vs. left, conservatives vs. liberals or Republicans vs. Democrats. Rather, the divergence is between those in government service who are there for some noble purpose that looks out for the greater good, and those in powerful economic positions whose primary concern is self-interest and making as much money as possible. As the author states more succinctly, the struggle is "between the people who are in it for the mission and the people who are in it for the money."
One might think that a book about the inner workings of the Departments of Energy, Agriculture and Commerce and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) might be a snoozefest, but this is not the case when the story teller is Michael Lewis. Lewis goes from the macro to the micro as he describes the lives of a number of brilliant civil servants, each devoted to a greater purpose beyond their own career or financial enrichment. He uses their experience and vision to show how the much maligned and underappreciated civil service works to better the lives of many Americans caught in the undertow of the growing gap between rich and poor.
For example, many think of the Department of Agriculture as being concerned only with farms and farmers. But it also oversees the funding of vital programs like food stamps and school lunches, and provides weather and other information which provides information to grow crops optimally. Lewis explores how the Commerce Department may not have enough staff to conduct the 2020 Census properly and how census and other data collected by the government in tremendously valuable in all sorts of scientific advancements. The Commerce Department is also responsible for the NOAA, whose advances in weather tracking have saved the lives of those who live in regions affected by tornadoes and other hostile weather phenomena. Public sharing of that information is now being threatened by those in the private sector who want to make money charging for weather information gathered at taxpayers' expense, rather than making this information freely available, and who have the political connections to make this happen. Lewis notes that since the new administration has taken over, mountains of data previously available to the public on government websites, has been removed and how those in tornado zones and other at-risk regions are now in greater danger because of the influence of private sector weather services having influence with the new government so as to make such information available, but only for a fee.
Many think of the Department of Energy as being only concerned with oil. But as Lewis points out, this is a minor part of that department's responsibility. Government funding from that department, and not private lenders, has financed many of the greatest technological advancements of our generation and has done so profitably. That funding is now at risk and Lewis warns that this may stifle creativity in technological advancement. The Department of Energy also manages international nuclear risk as well as cleanup of nuclear waste at home. Cuts to the department will mean that there will probably not be enough inspectors to track and locate black market uranium before terrorists do, or to head off future problems from past nuclear development, all because private sector interests are demanding less government regulation. Lewis notes an overall effort to purge from government any acknowledgement of the risks of climate change and global warming.
Lewis provides an eye-opening account of the dangers of an inadequate transition of government, as well as from some of the short-sighted and selfishly-motivated policies and appointments made by the Trump administration. This book offers a valuable education about some of the unknown and unappreciated risks that flow from disrespect and contempt for science and data analysis. The author's telling the stories of the lives and passions of individual public servants concerned about these issues puts a human face on the points he is trying to make.
The book's only failing is in its lack of an epilogue or summary to tie these stories together and underscore the warnings that Lewis is giving. In spite of this, The Fifth Risk packs a lot in a concise (219 pages) package. It is told in the author's enjoyable conversational style, like listening to a friend over a cup of coffee. In the process, he makes it clear that there is much to be lost if the trend continues to allow science and information gathering and analysis to be suppressed in favour of the interests of privileged private sector greed.
Don't really need to put to words on the quality of the book. Michael Lewis has yet again delivered top quality. Eye opening information. You feel like finishing it in 1 sitting
Reviewed in India on February 21, 2020
Don't really need to put to words on the quality of the book. Michael Lewis has yet again delivered top quality. Eye opening information. You feel like finishing it in 1 sitting





















