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The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty Paperback – March 15, 2012

4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 228 ratings

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Editorial Reviews

From the Inside Flap

Praise for

THE FLAW OF AVERAGES

"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages."

William J. Perry, former U.S. Secretary of Defense

"Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible . . . the Distribution String . . . represents a major breakthrough in the communication of risk and uncertainty."

Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

"This is a book written for laymen with enough interesting insights to engage even the most scholarly professional."

Douglas Hubbard, author of How to Measure Anything

"Sam Savage is the Edward Tufte of risk."

Matthew Raphaelson, Executive Vice President, Wells Fargo

A GROUNDBREAKING MUST-READ FOR ANYONE WHO MAKES BUSINESS DECISIONS IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY

In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage—known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects—describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. He explains why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as finance, healthcare, accounting, the war on terror, and climate change. Savage refers to anachronistic statistical jargon as Red Words, which he defines as things that may not be uttered in a singles bar. Instead, he presents complex concepts in plain English (Green Words), backed up by interactive simulations at www.FlawofAverages.com, which connect the seat of the intellect to the seat of the pants.

Savage also presents the emerging field of Probability Management aimed at curing the Flaw of Averages through more transparent communication of uncertainty and risk. Savage argues that this is a problem that must be solved if we are to improve the stability of our economy, and that we cannot repeat the recent mistakes of applying "steam era" statistics to "information age" risks.

From the Back Cover

Praise for

THE FLAW OF AVERAGES

"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages."

—William J. Perry, former U.S. Secretary of Defense

"Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible . . . the Distribution String . . . represents a major breakthrough in the communication of risk and uncertainty."

—Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

"This is a book written for laymen with enough interesting insights to engage even the most scholarly professional."

—Douglas Hubbard, author of How to Measure Anything

"Sam Savage is the Edward Tufte of risk."

—Matthew Raphaelson, Executive Vice President, Wells Fargo

A GROUNDBREAKING MUST-READ FOR ANYONE WHO MAKES BUSINESS DECISIONS IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY

In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage—known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects—describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. He explains why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as finance, healthcare, accounting, the war on terror, and climate change. Savage refers to anachronistic statistical jargon as Red Words, which he defines as things that may not be uttered in a singles bar. Instead, he presents complex concepts in plain English (Green Words), backed up by interactive simulations at www.FlawofAverages.com, which connect the seat of the intellect to the seat of the pants.

Savage also presents the emerging field of Probability Management aimed at curing the Flaw of Averages through more transparent communication of uncertainty and risk. Savage argues that this is a problem that must be solved if we are to improve the stability of our economy, and that we cannot repeat the recent mistakes of applying "steam era" statistics to "information age" risks.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Wiley; 1st edition (March 15, 2012)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 416 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1118073754
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1118073759
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6 x 1.3 x 8.9 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 228 ratings

About the author

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Dr. Sam L. Savage is author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012), and Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted to the communication and calculation of uncertainty. The organization has received funding from Chevron, Kaiser Permanente, Highmark Health, Lockheed Martin, PG&E, and others. Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics, was a co-founding board member.

Dr. Savage received his Ph.D. in computational complexity from Yale University, then began his career as a mathematician at the General Motors Research Laboratory. From there he taught at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business for 15 years before moving to Stanford in 1990. He is currently an Adjunct Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering and is also a Fellow of the University of Cambridge Judge Business School.

Throughout his career, Dr. Savage has consulted widely to industry and served as an expert in litigation, and his writing reflects his experiences on both the academic and practical side of what he calls “the algebraic curtain separating managers from management science.”

Dr. Savage is the inventor of the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP), an auditable data array for conveying uncertainty, which served as a basis for the nonprofit's open SIPmath™ Standard. This standard has been adopted by software firms such as Frontline Systems and Lumina Decision Systems.

In his own words, Dr. Savage says: “I am not a dispassionate observer, but a promoter who models himself after that great medieval huckster, Fibonacci, who foisted Hindu-Arabic numerals on an unsuspecting Western Civilization in 1199. At ProbabilityManagement.org, we are trying to create the Hindu-Arabic Numerals of Uncertainty."

Customer reviews

4.4 out of 5 stars
4.4 out of 5
228 global ratings

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John S
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alexandre penna
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Joshua
5.0 out of 5 stars Good Book
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Really interesting book on the use of statistics… appreciate the good condition it was delivered in!
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Prairy Earth
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