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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto) Hardcover – October 14, 2008
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Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.--This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.
Top Customer Reviews
However, there are significant drawbacks to this book, which to some readers will make the book significantly unenjoyable or even impossible to read. While it did not significantly bother me, Taleb does have an attitude or style which at times tends to the snobbish. The author repeatedly reminds readers that he is well traveled, is a "voracious" reader, pursues his exercise routines "assiduously", and is from upper class Mediterranean roots.Read more ›
FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS is an introduction to the difficulties human beings have at reasoning around probability. Taleb argues that human beings are genetically hardwired to misattribute the results of human endeavors to skill and knowledge that are, in fact, just coincidental, random events. Taleb discusses the results of this embedded flaw in human reasoning in three areas.
In part 1, Taleb discusses impacts of `rare events' on both financial markets and on human history. Taleb argues we should beware seemingly successful strategies if they are not proven by the test of history. In particular, we should examine human history in the long term for general trends and treat skeptically claims that humanity has reached `the end of history' or `a new economic model' where the old, proven rules do not apply.
In part 2, Taleb discusses the `survivor effect', or mistaking success based on luck for success based on skill. In particular, Taleb warns against judging a strategy by its actual results. Instead, we should judge strategies based upon a sum of all possible outcomes.
In part 3, Taleb briefly discusses `tricks' he has developed to try and derail his flawed, ingrained, statistical reasoning and live a rational and, to a great degree, classical life based upon a good understanding of the effect of randomness on our lives.Read more ›
Most Recent Customer Reviews
A sincere and humorous account of what it means to navigate a world that we don't necessarily understand even while being adamant we do. Read morePublished 9 days ago by Amazon Customer
Bought this after seeing him on Youtube and was not disappointed. This is a fantastic book and I purchased it as a gift for friends!Published 26 days ago by Anthony Babbitt
It explores an interesting concept and you can learn a lot from this book. But overall, the author seems insecure. The book is full of insults for everyone that is successful. Read morePublished 29 days ago by Karl
Ever had a conversation with an intelligent person?
Their thoughts spill forth in the form of verbal communication, but there's no direct narrative. Read more
The concepts presented in this book will make you think. The daily news and press reports will not seem the same anymore. Read morePublished 1 month ago by Amazon Customer
As a huge fan and student of probability and statistics, I'm always looking for a good book on it. This is not a good book on it. Read morePublished 1 month ago by Amazon Customer