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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto) Hardcover – October 14, 2008
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Top Customer Reviews
However, there are significant drawbacks to this book, which to some readers will make the book significantly unenjoyable or even impossible to read. While it did not significantly bother me, Taleb does have an attitude or style which at times tends to the snobbish. The author repeatedly reminds readers that he is well traveled, is a "voracious" reader, pursues his exercise routines "assiduously", and is from upper class Mediterranean roots.Read more ›
FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS is an introduction to the difficulties human beings have at reasoning around probability. Taleb argues that human beings are genetically hardwired to misattribute the results of human endeavors to skill and knowledge that are, in fact, just coincidental, random events. Taleb discusses the results of this embedded flaw in human reasoning in three areas.
In part 1, Taleb discusses impacts of `rare events' on both financial markets and on human history. Taleb argues we should beware seemingly successful strategies if they are not proven by the test of history. In particular, we should examine human history in the long term for general trends and treat skeptically claims that humanity has reached `the end of history' or `a new economic model' where the old, proven rules do not apply.
In part 2, Taleb discusses the `survivor effect', or mistaking success based on luck for success based on skill. In particular, Taleb warns against judging a strategy by its actual results. Instead, we should judge strategies based upon a sum of all possible outcomes.
In part 3, Taleb briefly discusses `tricks' he has developed to try and derail his flawed, ingrained, statistical reasoning and live a rational and, to a great degree, classical life based upon a good understanding of the effect of randomness on our lives.Read more ›
Most Recent Customer Reviews
Starts off kind of slow but then picks up. Makes many important observations that we may not think about. Read morePublished 11 days ago by Steve
Overall, this is a very insightful book. It is a discussion of how random outcomes work their way into our lives. Read morePublished 25 days ago by Skubalon12
Great book. Not too technical, in fact, it's not going to automatically make you a better trader, but it's a good intro to other more technical aspects of investing & human... Read morePublished 1 month ago by MP Film Director
Good quality and a good price. They shipped very fast. Job well donePublished 2 months ago by rebecca
A sincere and humorous account of what it means to navigate a world that we don't necessarily understand even while being adamant we do. Read morePublished 3 months ago by Amazon Customer