- Hardcover: 415 pages
- Publisher: Kogan Page; 5th edition (September 28, 2006)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 0749447494
- ISBN-13: 978-0749447496
- Product Dimensions: 6.3 x 1.3 x 9.1 inches
- Shipping Weight: 1.8 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
- Average Customer Review: 8 customer reviews
- Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #6,089,605 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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Forecasting Financial Markets: The Psychology of Successful Investing 5th Edition
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This book will entertain and intrigue keen investors.” -- Financial Times
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In certain cases, the book makes conclusions that are absolutely and shockingly false. For example, in page 58, the author makes a conclusion that boils down to this: as you increase the window of a moving average, there will be a very high correlation between the values of the moving average at any two times T and T-1. Hence, the author claims, this (the high correlation) shows that financial markets are predictable!!
This "reasoning" is absolutely ridiculous. Moving averages BY DEFINITION smooth out curves and hence increase correlation between time steps of the smoothed curve. In fact, if the window is large enough the value of the moving average will be approximately constant and that will imply that the correlation between T and T-1 is almost 1. This will be the case for almost ANY stationary data series. Does that make any such data series predictable?! Absolutely not!
It explains the WHYs of financial markets. Why do greed and fear drive prices? Why is it so hard to escape them? Why does Fiboncacci retracements work? Why does history repeat itself?
If you are concerned with the HOWs, skip the book.
If you are a beginner, skip the book.
If you are ready to question your deepest understandings of human matters, how you personnally interreact with prices, then this book will become your bible.
As someone else said, the author attempts to write like a scientist which just results in a confusing book that does not give the reader a clear message or understanding of the topic. I don't feel any better prepared to "forecast financial markets".
When we think of TA we are attempting to quantify how market participants are behaving and what they might do next. This book uniquely explains a behaviour process of a substantial portion of market participants.
This book remains in my top five all time favourite trading books!
As a pro mechanical (using TA with as little personal judgement as possible, vs the large judgement needed of, say, Elliot Wave Theories) trader/CFA/trading book lover I really dislike the book. I admit that I am prejudiced against Cycles/Elliot Wave Theories coz it's nearly impossible to tell what phase/stage of what cycle one is in and thus what high profit probability action one should take, except from hindsight which may already be hundreds of pips away. Pathetically, the key theme of the book, if present, is to provide academic background of various types of cycle theory. Psuedo science/psychology/economics, forgive me.
In case you really want to read something to sharpen your trading/investment edge, I strongly suggest you to give it a pass.