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Forex Patterns and Probabilities: Trading Strategies for Trending and Range-Bound Markets Hardcover – July 27, 2007
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From the Inside Flap
In recent years, traders have turned to the foreign exchange market expecting to capture substantial profits. While the high availability of leverage within this arena can improve your chances of making money, ultimately the success of your endeavors depends upon how well you understand and operate within this market. Nobody knows this better than author Ed Ponsi. As a professional trader and leading educator of traders, Ponsi has developed a proven approach to trading today's forex market, and now, with Forex Patterns and Probabilities, he wants to share it with you.
While most books on trading deal with general concepts and shy away from specifics, Forex Patterns and Probabilities provides you with real-world strategies and a rare sense of clarity about the specific mechanics of currency trading that will allow you to take advantage of both trending and range-bound markets.
Written in a straightforward and accessible style, Forex Patterns and Probabilities will help you make the most of your time in this market. You'll be introduced to a variety of elements that are essential to forex trading success and discover the best ways to enter, exit, and manage trades. Dozens of chart examples and explanations will guide you each step of the way and allow you to "look over the shoulder" of a professional trader hard at work at his craft.
Divided into four comprehensive parts, this detailed guide:
Explains the playing field of the forex market, using powerful metaphors that relate trading scenarios to situations in everyday life
Outlines several specific trading strategiesincluding the FX-Ed Trend Techniquedesigned for trending markets
Delves into a variety of non-trending trading techniquesfrom the volatility-based Squeeze Play to the hedge fundinspired Interest Rate Edgewhich are all based on unique market tendencies
Offers an insider's view on how to emulate the behavioral patterns of successful professional tradersand how to escape the mindset of the amateur
And much more
Today's forex market contains some of the most profitable trading opportunities in the world. With the practical strategies and trading methodologies found in Forex Patterns and Probabilities you can uncover these opportunities and achieve long-term financial success along the way.
From the Back Cover
Praise for Forex PATTERNS & PROBABILITIES
"Ed has the experience, he has the knowledge, and he has the ability to wrap it all up into one of the most useful and insightful books on trading that I've read. You're going to be a better trader with the help of this book."
Rob Booker, independent currency trader, and author of Adventures of a Currency Trader
"This book is a must-read for any equities trader who is trying to learn the ins and outs of the forex markets. Ed has the rare gift among traders and educators to take complex trading theories and break them down into interesting and easy-to-digest trading concepts. I have personally had the benefit of studying live with Ed, and I found this book a great review of my live courses with him and now use it as my main forex reference book in my trading library. Ed you truly are the rock star of the FX markets. Well done!"
Michael J. Di Gioia, cofounder, the Results-Driven Financial Network
"Forex Patterns and Probabilities is one of the best practical forex trading books I have read, and I have read a good many forex books! Ed thoroughly teaches those areas that cause most difficulty for new traders, from economic fundamentals to technical trading to the psychological aspects that are so important but ignored by so many new to trading. Peppered throughout with anecdotes from the trading and non-trading world, Ed's easygoing, homespun style gets his message across very effectively. This work is destined to become essential reading for both new and established traders."
George Hallmey, Director, www.Clickevents.com
"Ed Ponsi is a complete teacher! Forex Patterns and Probabilities covers it all for forex and trading in general. This book will teach you the foundations, the tactics, the pitfalls, and the 'real' world of forex. As Director of Education for the Online Trading Academy, I understand the importance of education and trading knowledge. . . Forex Patterns and Probabilities, while focused on forex, allows the reader to see the nuances of trading in generalfundamental, technical, psychological, plan management, and a strong, healthy dose of risk management and discipline."
Mike McMahon, Director of Education, Online Trading Academy
Top Customer Reviews
The number of strategies is in fact quite limited and not really new. I was expecting much more from the description. Ed just uses levels for entry and stops that could be slightly different than in some other books.
2 strategies about trending markets (FX-Ed and classic 2 time frame system), 1 for pennant/flags, a volatility breakout strategy, which is in fact a triangle strategy (for the entry). playing the round numbers, a range trading in the low volume opening, and a word about the carry trade.
The so-called FX-Ed trending strategy is based on moving averages. I have backtested it (it is easy, no place for interpretation for the version without partial exits and reload)and of course it works on strongly trending markets such EURUSD recently, but wait, any trending strategy worked!! The same strategy with pairs such as USDJPY generates a loss or a small gain between 1997 and 2005 and it was in fact quite good at buying tops and shorting bottoms, resulting in huge volatility of the equity curve.
Update: Backtest of the "round trip" (playing the round numbers). Only difference with the text is that the second target is a multiple of the first one instead of based on a previous R/S level. From Sept 2003 to Sept 2006, it does not work and looses for most pairs (including those preferred by the author). Even if we take only the first bounce, it looses.
Update2: Backtest of the "Boomerang", a range trading in the low volume opening. EURUSD only as suggested by Ed. Tested from Sept 2001 to Nov 2006. There is a profit growing steadily (though there are drawdowns) from Sept 2001 to May 2004. After that, it is flat.Read more ›
This is a book that I could really could have used 6 months ago and skipped most of the other stuff about trading. About the only thing missing is backtested results to show how well the systems work in real trading. But there are clear examples of each strategy.
However, he's just too conservative. His setups are very good but you'll grow old waiting to see them. Example: calling for 4 (5, 20, 50, and 200 if I remember right) moving averages to fan out in proper order, on a daily chart, in order to qualify a trend. Yeah, it's definitely a trend, but by the time you get there, the trend's almost over. And you'll never get in on a retracement or a resumption that way. You'll control losses by never placing any trades. Nix at least one moving average, maybe even 2.
His focus is daily charts in general. Nothing wrong with that, but nowhere's near the money to made or lost as in the intraday charts. But he doesn't tell you that. He offers a flawed argument why his way is best, goes something like this: Using one of his ideal trendfollowing setups, he pulls of a trade that earns him something like 3000 in 4 months. Then he goes on to compare it to a 10 pip per trade goal and says even if you made your 10 pips per day, everyday, in that same period, with the same pair, you'd only score about 1700 pips instead of his 3000. Fair logic, but who says you'd only get 10 pips and quit? His 3000 pip rise is punctuated with enough ups and downs to score twice or 3 times that trading intraday. With less risk, given that his stops on a daily were as high as 155 pips, still pretty tight for a daily chart, yet that same 155 pips is an enormous stop on an hourly. Not to mention all the days that you won't be trading while you wait for 4 MA's to line up.Read more ›
Most Recent Customer Reviews
Ed Ponsi was my forex instructor for a summer 2015 class with Online Trading Academy. He was an enjoyable classroom teacher, and only on the last day of class did he modestly... Read morePublished 8 months ago by free2be
It is important to disclose to the readers of this review that I have little experience trading Forex. Read morePublished on December 15, 2013 by Floyd Palmer
I found this one of the easier to read books on the topic that would sufficiently take a beginner through what they need to know to get started on the trade while also reinforces... Read morePublished on November 27, 2011 by Kim
This book essentially teaches you to trade on the chart, which I believe has been weakened as a strategy as it has been shown to be based on random movements. Read morePublished on October 10, 2011 by Chris
A book written by someone like Ed Ponsi, might be expected to bring more advanced and high-end techniques or know-how. Read morePublished on July 14, 2011 by AnBer
i bought this book about a year ago, and have to say is way overpriced, read "Trade your way to financial freedom" van tharp is hundred times more useful. Read morePublished on May 18, 2011 by Alejandro Benitez