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The Fourth Transformation: How Augmented Reality & Artificial Intelligence Will Change Everything by [Robert Scoble, Shel Israel]

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Robert Scoble

Shel Israel

The Fourth Transformation: How Augmented Reality & Artificial Intelligence Will Change Everything Kindle Edition

by Robert Scoble (Author), Shel Israel (Author) Format: Kindle Edition

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Ten years from today, the center of our digital lives will no longer be the smart phone, but device that looks like ordinary eyeglasses: except those glasses will have settings for Virtual and Augmented Reality. What you really see and what is computer generated will be mixed so tightly together, that we won’t really be able to tell what is real and what is illusion.
Instead of touching and sliding on a mobile phone, we will make things happen by moving our eyes or by brainwaves. When we talk with someone or play an online game, we will see that person in the same room with us. We will be able to touch and feel her or him through haptic technology.
We won’t need to search online with words, because there will be a new Visual Web 100 times larger than the current Internet, and we will find things by images, buy things by brands, or just by looking at a logo on the jacket of a passerby. Language will be irrelevant, and a merchant in a developing world will have access to global markets.
Medical devices will cure schizophrenia, allow quadriplegics to walk. People will be able to touch and feel objects and other people who are not actually there for conversations, games and perhaps intimate experiences.
From Kindergarten to on-the-job, learning will become experiential. Children will visit great battlefields and tour historic places in VR rather than read about them in text books. Med students and surgeons will learn and practice on virtual humans rather than cadavers; oil rig workers will understand how to handle emergencies, before the ever leave the home office.
The Fourth Transformation is based on two years of research and about 400 interviews with technologists and business decision makers. It explains the technology and product landscape on a level designed to be interesting and useful to business thinkers and general audiences. Mostly it talks about how VR and AR are already being used, or will be used in the next one-to-three years. It explains how this massive and fundamental transformation will be driven, nit just by Millennials, but by the generation following them, which the authors have named the Minecraft Generation.
Robert Scoble and Shel Israel have written this book in the hope that it will serve as a business thinker’s guidebook to the near-term future. They hope readers will walk away understanding the massive changes rapidly arising, so that they will navigate a successful course through the changes they will be facing sooner than they—or their competitors-- may realize just yet.

Print length

208 pages
Language

English
Publication date

December 7, 2016
File size

4421 KB
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Product details

ASIN ‏ : ‎ B01M5JKW3Z
Publisher ‏ : ‎ Patrick Brewster Press; 1st edition (December 7, 2016)
Publication date ‏ : ‎ December 7, 2016
Language ‏ : ‎ English
File size ‏ : ‎ 4421 KB
Simultaneous device usage ‏ : ‎ Unlimited
Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
Screen Reader ‏ : ‎ Supported
Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Not Enabled
Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Not Enabled
Print length ‏ : ‎ 208 pages
Lending ‏ : ‎ Enabled

Best Sellers Rank: #735,432 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- #152 in Virtual Reality
- #664 in Computers & Technology (Kindle Store)
- #3,300 in Video & Computer Games

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156 ratings

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Top reviews from the United States

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M. Markman

You don't need a headset to see our Mixed-Reality future. Just get this book

Reviewed in the United States on December 7, 2016

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If you’re only casually aware of what’s out there, your current image of a VR enthusiast may be of a twenty-something gamer with an oversized headset strapped to their face, tethered to a powerful computer, stumbling and flailing blindly around a room, bumping into walls and furniture as they fight dragons, zombies, and aliens that only they can see.

If that’s what you imagine, prepare for a revelation. Scoble and Israel’s new book, “The Fourth Transformation: How Augmented Reality & Artificial Intelligence Will Change Everything.” It will jangle your brain. It will whet your appetite for a feast of invention. And, in the process, it may also very well alarm you. If you are inclined to build, create, or invest in new kinds of experiences, it will open a whole universe of possibilities for you. If you are willing and able to work in that universe, you may even find yourself following Alan Kay’s quip about the best way to predict the future: you may find yourself inventing it.

This is their third book together and by far their best. Broadest in scope, deepest in specific research, and farthest seeing.

The future that Scoble and Israel are predicting (or, more properly, reporting) represents the most radical advance of digital technology since the development of the computer. It’s a future, they argue, that will transform not just our devices, but us and our world. Their sub-title promises it will change everything. Everything. I don’t think that’s hyperbole. The stories they tell are both breathtaking and mind-blowing. Scoble and Israel give us an insider’s glimpse into us what’s cooking in labs at startups (some them very well-funded and close to shipping), universities, and the top tier of established global corporations—in technology and entertainment. It’s an exhaustive, expansive survey, told with breathless enthusiasm (and ample warnings), covering a range of advances that are slated to arrive over the next decade. The core is a cluster of technologies already coming to market in their early primitive and/or over-priced versions: VR, AR, and MR. (respectively, Virtual, Augmented, and Mixed Reality). If you’re not yet fluent in the terminology, The Fourth Transformation includes an extensive and helpful glossary.

Scoble and Israel take a high-level view. Their book focuses not so much on technical details, as on the likely positive (and some worrying negative) impacts these new technologies will have on our lives. Such diverse fields as health, retail, transportation, manufacturing, education, gaming, and entertainment will explode into new possibilities. The authors acknowledge that the infrastructure behind these technologies will create the means for tracking of our movements, interests, and activities. That will surely tempt surveillance by governments, law enforcement, and corporate marketers.

Some of the possibilities described in this book strike me as downright obnoxious. If pop-up ads and auto-play videos annoy you when browsing the Web, imagine a world where pop-up holograms and auto-play sales pitches greet you in every store, restaurant, and hotel. If I happen to stare too long at a box on the supermarket shelf or a jacket on a department store mannikin, I’m not sure I’m ready to have it launch into a “buy me” pitch. The promise is that the data in my digital dossier will combine with advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence to filter out everything except the pitches and messages I will be glad to get, I’m dubious. I’m not convinced the world needs more advertising.

Despite their unabashed enthusiasm for the new technology, Scoble and Israel’s longest chapter is entitled, “What Could Possibly Go Wrong.” Ironically, it happens to be Chapter 11.

The notes are thorough and extensive and all of them link to source materials on the Web.

36 people found this helpful

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Sam Perry

The Fourth Transformation brings new meaning to 'seeing is believing'!

Reviewed in the United States on December 19, 2016

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Oh No! Oh Dear! Disclosure #1 - this book the Fourth Transformation by Robert Scoble and Shell Israel, is going to cost me, dearly! I can explain. Really, it will be orders of magnitude greater than the cost of this timely volume - $17.70 on Amazon, despite having been accorded an advance copy (more on this soon).

The point is, this duo makes a convincing case that we are on the verge of a new media, a new capacity for story-telling, which as a nation and a world we have just learned once again is perhaps the most primal and powerful mover of human actions ever. Greater than facts, or evidence-based science, though in the discussion of health, teaching and augmented capacities, this transformation can well deeply augment and improve our abilities to factor detailed knowledge and information for better results. Or not. As with past collaborations, digital pioneer and gadfly Scoble, and his literate scribe Mr. Israel, delve into the potential abuses of these technologies and the media they enable, as well as the upside.

Disclosure #2, is I’m an admitted gadget guy. The world of Virtual Reality - products you will easily see promoted elsewhere - is not cheap. To explore, one must at least access a salon or demonstration facility. To own any of the devices will set you back several times more than the cost of that wall-size LCD TV you may have been coveting. Unlike the three earlier transformations to which the book refers - mainframes, text-based operating systems and then graphical interfaces on computers and smartphones - this next medium is immersive and may soon be ubiquitous. While VR currently requires a masking headset to interface with the world, the promise of Augmented Reality (AR) is adding images and information to in line of sight during our everyday lives. Israel and Scoble even seek to coin a new phrase to describe the ultimate outcome - Mixed Reality when we can experience a blend of digital and physical reality in daily life.

Disclosure #3 - I am a big fan of Scoble and Israel, and I fully appreciate their brisk and informed, contemporaneous journey through the state of play at the moment - in a year when Pokeman lept back into our lives via Pokeman Go in a small number of days, demonstrating how even a simple geo-located game can garner near instant fascination around the globe. As such, they are describing the advent of this nascent industry today. So I do caution not to expect this to be a definitive “history” of AR and VR, as one least impressed reviewer appears to have wanted. Instead it is a lively romp through the very early days that can be a portal for those wanting to understand where this new transformation may lead. (And Disclosure #4, yes I did receive an advance digital copy, but as usual With this two-some I wanted a hard copy so I bought it, here, of course!) It is a new beginning, and, as the authors quote Arthur C. Clarke in the frontispiece, “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Enjoy the book. Yet beware of your budget if you, like me, get hooked. Remember, I warned you here first.

8 people found this helpful

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Sandy Adam

Get Up to Speed on AI/AR/VR and MR Fast !

Reviewed in the United States on December 15, 2016

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I had the opportunity to get an advanced copy of the PDF of this book to review and it was SO good I bought the hardcopy! Shel Israel and Robert Scoble deliver everything you need to know about the changing landscape of digital technology. The book not only takes you through the basics, but offers a deeper dive in each area and provides a very extensive glossary of terms to bone up on.

You'll come to see that VR is not just for gaming and AR is already a mainstay in some manufacturing environments. The tone is conversational, and the stories shared are priceless. They dive into artificial intelligence and how it is already changing the way we interact with devices in our personal lives. (Think Amazon Echo for one.)

It also covers the potential downfalls with loss of privacy and loss of jobs. With great technology comes great responsibility.

It's brain candy and inspirational for techies and non-techies alike.

Finally, if you're a marketer, I'd say "forewarned is forearmed"... so get up to speed now on what's going to impact you in the coming years. Visual storytelling is key in today's digital landscape and you will want to get a leg up on your competition. This book will show you how.

GET ONE, get two .... get a few and give them away to colleagues... yeah, it's got that much impact.

2 people found this helpful

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Top reviews from other countries

Neville Hobson

A Vision of the Near Tomorrow

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on December 29, 2016

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One of the things I like most about The Fourth Transformation, which I just finished reading on my Kindle, is the way in which it will help you to join up the dots and begin to understand the fundamental, disruptive and accelerating changes we already see around us brought by advances in technology – notably, virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR) and artificial intelligence (AI) – and massive shifts in people’s behaviours.

You’ll encounter plenty of new terms, phrases and expressions in this book – starting with mixed reality (MR) and spatial computing – that you will increasingly see online and in the workplace. There’s a useful glossary at the end of the book that explains myriad terms like those.

If you’re keen to explore what’s next, this book is a good place to start.

It’s also a book in which readers who either have little interest in the subject matter, and who find other books addressing the subject matter – and there are plenty – hard work or lack a rich story-telling element to hook you in, will find a worthwhile experience that assesses a tech-enriched landscape over the coming decade in layman’s terms.

While The Fourth Transformation is a slim volume – just 208 pages in the paperback edition – it packs more than enough thought-provoking insights from the many use cases of real-world organizations already on their transformation journeys in a compelling narrative that’s conversational and authentic.

In sum, The Fourth Transformation offers you a great story that will help you see more clearly the profound changes confronting us in our workplaces and in our homes. You may not agree with all you read here and prefer to make up your own mind.

After reading The Fourth Transformation, at least you can make an informed decision.

Rust Cohle

Just examples of existing businesses

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on December 4, 2017

Verified Purchase

Scoble and Israel are essentially listing examples of promising VR/AR/MR companies followed by some commentary. They do not go in depth into the tech side or present any actionable insights for a would-be entrepreneur. I feel you can get the gist of this book by watching some of their talks, there's basically no difference or added value in this book.

Daniel J McClure

Good general overview of mixed reality tech.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 24, 2017

Verified Purchase

This is a whirlwind tour of upcoming and present stealth tech related to, mainly, augmented and mixed reality. Lots of links to companies and articles throughout for further investigation. Probably more useful as a thinking aid than a direct resource on the specifics.