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The Future, Declassified: Megatrends That Will Undo the World Unless We Take Action Hardcover – September 9, 2014

by Mathew Burrows (Author)

3.8 47 ratings

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Twenty-five years ago when Mathew Burrows went to work for the CIA as an intelligence analyst, the world seemed frozen. Then came the fall of the Berlin Wall and the implosion of the Soviet Union; suddenly, unpredictability became a universal theme and foresight was critical. For the past decade, Burrows has overseen the creation of the Global Trends report―the key futurist guide for the White House, Departments of State and Defense, and Homeland Security. Global Trends has a history of making bold predictions and being right:
* In 2004, it argued that al-Qaeda's centralized operations would dissolve and be replaced by groups, cells, and individuals―the very model of the 2012 Boston bombings.
* In 2008, it included a scenario dubbed October Surprise, imagining a devastating late-season hurricane hitting an unprepared New York City.
In The Future, Declassified, Burrows―for the first time―has expanded the most recent Global Trends report into a full-length narrative, forecasting the tectonic shifts that will drive us to 2030. A staggering amount of wholesale change is happening―from unprecedented and widespread aging to rampant urbanization and growth in a global middle class to an eastward shift in economic power and a growing number of disruptive technologies. Even our physical geography is changing as sea levels rise and faster commercial shipping routes open up through a warming Arctic region.
The book concludes with its most provocative section: four fictional paths to 2030 with imagined storylines and characters based on analysis by the most authoritative figures in the intelligence community. As Burrows argues, we are living through some of the greatest and most momentous developments in history. Either we take charge and direct those or we are at their mercy. The stakes are particularly high for America's standing in the world and for ordinary Americans who want to maintain their quality of life. Running the gamut from scary to reassuring, this riveting book is essential reading.

Review

“Matt Burrows has provided us all a map of the future landscape for decision makers at every level. Original, comprehensive and visionary it is vital reading for anyone who cares about the future of their children.” ―Peter Schwartz, Futurist, author of The Art of the Long View

“Matt Burrows is a brave American. While serving in NIC, he argued forcefully that America had to deal with new realities: a multipolar world in which we will see America's relative decline. Yet he is also optimistic about America's future in this new world. I share his optimism and I commend this book to all who want to understand our planet's new future.” ―Kishore Mahbubani, Dean, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, NUS, and author of The Great Convergence: Asia, the West, and the Logic of One World

“In The Future, Declassified Mathew Burrows reflects on past, present and future mega-trends. He does not chase the impossible, predicting the future. Instead he provides an analytic look into the realities of today's world and the potential we have for dealing with the likely challenges we will face. Burrows' approach, and his analytic treatment, make him the best futurist of our time.” ―Gen J. E. Cartwright (Ret)

“After a distinguished career in intelligence, Mat Burrows has found a new voice. His analytic talent, once applied to an important quadrennial series of global trends reports, has been transformed into a gift for vivid storytelling. He draws the reader in to illuminate the complexities of globalization and shifting fortunes in international politics. His conclusions about this state of affairs for the United States are sobering but he offers some concrete policy ideas to refocus American energies to avoid the worst outcomes. He has also deftly explained the profound linkages between domestic policies on education and immigration, for example, and the more strategic world of national security.” ―Ellen Laipson, President & CEO, The Stimson Center

“As the old ways tremble, will old style governments give way to 'empowered individuals'? Will youthful nations stress aging ones? What disruptive technologies will challenge our assumptions? Mathew Burrows explores the many horizons of our uncertain age.” ―David Brin, author of Existence and The Transparent Society

“The Future, Declassified at once offers a compelling view of the challenges facing us in the decade ahead, and also provides a rare insight into the process of creating forecasts that connect with policy and strategic action. This book is a must-read for decision makers and an essential addition to every forecaster's bookshelf.” ―Paul Saffo, Managing Director, Foresight, Discern Analytics

“Yogi Berra said that we should never make predictions, especially about the future, but The Future, Declassified shows just how much we can foresee when we have the right guide. Mat Burrows, the leading light in the US National Intelligence Council’s hugely influential Global Trends reports, is the perfect guide, bringing the possible futures to life with a combination of hard-nosed analysis with vivid vignettes. Technological takeoff? Climate catastrophe? Pandemic disease? Nuclear war? You’ll find them all here, carefully weighed and balanced.” ―Ian Morris, author of Why the West Rules--For Now and War! What is it Good For?

About the Author

Mathew Burrows is the director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. He has served as the National Intelligence Council's counselor and director of analysis and production for the last decade. He served as the intelligence advisor to Richard Holbrooke when he was the US Ambassador to the UN. After 9/11, he became deputy national security advisor to US Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill. He lives in Washington, DC.

Print length

288 pages
Language

English
Publisher

St. Martin's Press
Publication date

September 9, 2014
Dimensions

6.37 x 1.04 x 9.52 inches
ISBN-10

1137279559
ISBN-13

978-1137279552
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Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ St. Martin's Press (September 9, 2014)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 288 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1137279559
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1137279552
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.04 pounds
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.37 x 1.04 x 9.52 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #2,811,027 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #18,307 in Public Affairs & Policy Politics Books

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3.8 47 ratings

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C

Good book

Reviewed in the United States on August 1, 2018

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Good book that covers a lot of the same ground as similar books on this topic but the forward looking fictional chapters are also quite interesting.

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Chad M

Challenge and response trends up to 2030: will the US and the West make unprecedented efforts to meet national challenges?

Reviewed in the United States on July 4, 2015

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The author Mathew Burrows describes the known challenges to the US and the West, and then divides each challenge into smaller and more workable parts. Both the challenges and responses are widely known, however, this book is unique in that it provides an accurate synopsis. It is also likely that all of these civilizational challenges must be solved by 2030 or before, since any one challenge left unmet may undermine progress in other parts of the world. Specifically, the major challenges include but are not limited to: 1) a fifty percent increase in world energy demands over the next 15 to 20 years (p. 90); 2) a world population of 8.3 billion in 2030, trending up to eleven billion or more ("A global population of almost 11 billion could be devastating for the planet...") (p. 88, 89); 3) huge increases in demand for freshwater, up by forty percent in 2030 (p. 84); 4) intractable US federal budget deficits and debt (p. 245), and risks to US economic strength ("The keystone of national power for the United States remains its economic strength and innovation" (p. 155); 5) the decline in funding for basic science research (p. 246); 6) a splintered world that lacks US leadership or guidance (p. 157). All of these major challenges are covered with precise detail and documentation..

These are the challenges which call for responses, and these responses would be "unprecedented efforts" (Arnold Toynbee, A Study of History, p. 570) or "radical changes" (Burrows, p. 243). This perspective is based on Arnold Toynbee's "challenge and response theory", under which nations or civilizations must respond to challenges, or decline and eventually vanish. In this book, the proposed responses are also called "radical changes" (p. 243), or policies, legislation, treaties, cultural changes, etc. Burrows proposes that "A first step would bring together the analysis of future trends with the decision-making process ..." (p. 252). He recommends a strategic planning and foresight office in the White House and Presidential administrations.

Responses to the civilizational or national challenges listed above include, in order: 1) for energy, a renaissance in US government funding for basic research, and for innovations in energy technology (p. 246); 2) for a sustainable world population, support of health programs, voluntary family planning, democracy, and planned urbanization (p. 89); 3) for freshwater resources, more R&D for efficient water use in agriculture, coupled with a sustainable world population (p. 84, 85); 4) for US budget integrity, the Simpson-Bowles plan and a new constitutional amendment for clean politics (p. 245); 5) for US science and innovation, university R&D paid for by higher taxes on upper income people; 6) to prevent a splintered world, enhanced US economic strength and a focus on US cooperation with other countries in a multipolar world, instead of attempts at unipolar influence (p. 150, 151, 153).

It is also encouraging that other authors are writing about the challenges and responses in a closely similar way. The Microsoft scientist Stephen Emmott writes exceptionally well about the impending risk of a massively overpopulated world in "Ten Billion"; the Nobel Laureate Richard E. Smalley presents a strategy for energy innovation in his YouTube video "Our Energy Challenge" and article "Future Global Energy Prosperity: The Terawatt Challenge"; Peter G. Peterson has several books about the US national debt and supported the film "IOUSA", along with strategies for sustaining US economic strength; Harvard Prof. Larry Summers calls infrastructure rebuilding at a time of low interest rates and pressing need (p. 246); Harvard Prof. Larry Lessig offers a plan for a US constitutional amendment to finally rein in the influence of big money during elections.

For each challenge there is a response, or several responses. Toynbee wrote that a society's response to a challenge must sometimes be unprecedented. Burrows prefers the term "radical changes". However, it's still unclear how radical or unprecedented this book's proposed responses are. Would a new gasoline tax of ten cents per gallon to fund energy R&D be radical or unprecedented? Was the Simpson-Bowles budget plan radical? I would argue these strategies were moderate, and not radical. Just these two examples of apparently moderate ideas being voted down or ignored at too radical or unprecedented show how far the US is getting behind the curve. As the author puts it, "crisis management still crowds out longer-range strategizing." (p. 6). An unprecedented change would be a genuine reform in US and Western governments: "This is the big challenge facing us - how to reform government so it can keep up with the drumbeat of new events but not be swamped by them." (p. 6).

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David Brender

Worth reading, but with some skepticism

Reviewed in the United States on November 14, 2014

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I suppose one-man's opinion is OK, but I disagree with many of his points, especially with regard to his obsession with man-made global warming. Lost credibility with me on this point. Seems to count on a lot of politics which can change. Not as entertaining as Megatrends, and other books on future trends.

One person found this helpful

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Karlo Mendez

Really good book, with interesting stories.

Reviewed in the United States on December 25, 2014

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Gave it a four out of five because even though it was a good book with many thought provoking ideas I was left with wanting more. Not much attention was paid to India and Brazil.

Nonetheless a good read.

2 people found this helpful

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Conor

Fantastic

Reviewed in the United States on April 25, 2017

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I'm curious to see if there's a 2016/2017 update. Also read That Used To Be Us by Thomas L Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum for more like this.

Reviewed in the United States on October 29, 2017

Verified Purchase

I bought this book after seeing a rave review. Turns out there is nothing new here unless say you have been a Taliban prisoner the last ten years. I was going to post some examples but just not worth my time.

One person found this helpful

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John Conmy

Interesting read. Nobody can predict the future yet the ...

Reviewed in the United States on January 28, 2016

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Interesting read. Nobody can predict the future yet the book provides those "megatrends" to consider as the world trucks along.

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Raybo

I admit it. I bought this book principally as ...

Reviewed in the United States on November 20, 2014

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I admit it. I bought this book principally as a result of the provocative cover. Unfortunately, the cover is the most well organized discussion in this book. Yes, we know China is growing and will probably challenge our nation in different spheres of interest, what else ? And so on and so forth...The author does, however, portray three scenarios in the form of short, short stories which assume the existence of certain of the events which he discusses in the first part of the book. Those scenarios confirm the value of the old rubric that a picture is worth a thousand words. In my humble opinion, there should have been more of those illustrative narratives and a little less of those pronouncements as to what is actually occurring, economically, militarily and politically, throughout the world and which is almost obvious to most people already.

4 people found this helpful

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Amazon Customer

A good book, but more for a conference filler

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on October 24, 2016

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A good book, but more for a conference filler. The cover definitely isn't as exciting or as informative as the book itself.

HistoryTechDoc

Patches of High Interest, but poorly divided into subchapters

Reviewed in Germany on November 9, 2014

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I'm about halfway through this book and find the value of the information so far well worthwhile to read the book to the end.
However, the chapters go to long without better sub-chapter divisions. One has to read well into each section to discover what the topic is.
I would recommend that the next edition be reedited keeping in mind that the sub-chapter headings need to be placed giving the reader a bit of an idea what topic is being covered and in pieces that the average reader can complete in 30 minutes or less, so that for those with a busy schedule they can read the book as they have short breaks available.

Stella García Moreno

Towards an unfothamable world

Reviewed in Spain on October 29, 2014

Verified Purchase

This book represents an attempt to understand the world mankind is heading towards in the foreseeable future. It offers a fantastic explanation about the megatrends that are already shaping reality. On the other hand, it is rather abstract at some point and might seem complex to the layman. I'd recommend it to any pundit or student in International Relations, Diplomacy, International Policy and Geopolitics and Security.

Brian

The future declassified

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 23, 2014

Verified Purchase

I brought this book because I heard about it on radio five' s Richard Bacon show. The first and largest part of the book is about reports given to Bush and O'bama administrations by the author and are of interest to see what advice those Presidents were given at the start of their administration's.
The second part looks at the possible results of some possible incidents that might arise.
A good read if you're looking for a book on how modern America works.

2 people found this helpful

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