- Hardcover: 334 pages
- Publisher: Grand Central Publishing; First Edition edition (January 20, 1993)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 0446516708
- ISBN-13: 978-0446516709
- Product Dimensions: 6 x 1 x 9 inches
- Shipping Weight: 1.6 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
- Average Customer Review: 3 customer reviews
- Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #3,157,387 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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Future Wars: The World's Most Dangerous Flashpoints Hardcover – January 20, 1993
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From Publishers Weekly
Military analyst and retired U.S. Army colonel Dupuy ( How to Defeat Saddam Hussein ) here offers scenarios of 10 possible near-future conflicts. They range from longstanding regional rivalries (India versus Pakistan) to post-Cold War situations (a Russian civil war) to such relatively remote prospects as a restored Sandinista government invading Honduras. Dupuy's underlying assumption is that war in the next five years will be conventional, mid-intensity and controlled by the governments involved. All of his projected situations end with a negotiated settlement, often under U.N. auspices. Dupuy's computer-assisted mathematical models contribute to generally plausible operational narratives of wars that might become tomorrow's headlines.
Copyright 1992 Reed Business Information, Inc.
From Library Journal
The world remains a dangerous place; war will be as much a part of its future as its past, argues Dupuy, author of excellent military histories. The fictional scenarios he chronicles are laid out with precision: first a recent history, then a hypothetical crisis (set in the mid-1990s), a tedious look at the composition of the opposing forces, and finally a dramatic, all-too-believable account of fantasy battles--a Russian civil war, several Middle East conflicts, Korea, Central America, and Transylvania. Dupuy's battlefields are derived from a 1965 computer-based mathematical combat model. His captivating writing makes up for the model's weaknesses in quantifying factors like surprise and mobility. For military studies and international affairs collections.
- John Yur echko, Georgetown Univ., Washington, D.C.
Copyright 1993 Reed Business Information, Inc.
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There are more obvious possibilities such as a sixth Arab-Israeli war, or a fourth India-Pakistan war. Then there are less obvious, but nevertheless quite plausible possibilities such as a Sandinista-Central America conflict, or a Libya-Egypt war, or a battle for control of Transylvania. None happened for real, but the thoroughness of research in "Future Wars" makes for fascinating reading. Especially well done are the preliminary excerpts in each conflict dealing with actual regional history leading up to the outbreak, and with brief rationales as causes for the "trigger to be pulled."
An endorsement by British General Sir John Hackett should be a huge testimonial for the experienced military history reader and analyst. Were it possible to be a reader of "Future Wars" in the year 1992, the book would certainly make one lose sleep!
Dupuys worst scenario if the 6th arab-israeli war. Why? Normally Dupuy has been at the forefront of those that say history is important to analyze the future. But he is using bad history(odd for someone who wrote a book on the arb-israeli conflict) in his look at the 6th arab israeli war. First: he forecasts a staggering intifada that would help slow down the IDF in its lightning blitzkrieg to take out the combined arab armies. Dupuy for all is knowledge doesnt seem to realize that in 1967 when Israel took over the west bank the palistinains had a chance to fight alongside the jordanian protectors but they did little to know damage and had no effect on the war in the west bank. So how could they be any more successful now? Your telling me a bunch of rock throwing youth and a few guys with old AKs are going to stop the Israeli army, not this is just not the case. The palistinians wouldnt dent anything and the Israelis wouldnt be forced to 'massacre' them to get through.
A flawed book.
Dupuy warns that the Intifada could block off Israeli roads and slow the IDF even if they killed 'hundreds of civilians'; which probably understates what the IDF would do.